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Physics of Life Reviews Mar 2022Mathematical models have a long history in epidemiological research, and as the COVID-19 pandemic progressed, research on mathematical modeling became imperative and... (Review)
Review
Mathematical models have a long history in epidemiological research, and as the COVID-19 pandemic progressed, research on mathematical modeling became imperative and very influential to understand the epidemiological dynamics of disease spreading. Mathematical models describing dengue fever epidemiological dynamics are found back from 1970. Dengue fever is a viral mosquito-borne infection caused by four antigenically related but distinct serotypes (DENV-1 to DENV-4). With 2.5 billion people at risk of acquiring the infection, it is a major international public health concern. Although most of the cases are asymptomatic or mild, the disease immunological response is complex, with severe disease linked to the antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE) - a disease augmentation phenomenon where pre-existing antibodies to previous dengue infection do not neutralize but rather enhance the new infection. Here, we present a 10-year systematic review on mathematical models for dengue fever epidemiology. Specifically, we review multi-strain frameworks describing host-to-host and vector-host transmission models and within-host models describing viral replication and the respective immune response. Following a detailed literature search in standard scientific databases, different mathematical models in terms of their scope, analytical approach and structural form, including model validation and parameter estimation using empirical data, are described and analyzed. Aiming to identify a consensus on infectious diseases modeling aspects that can contribute to public health authorities for disease control, we revise the current understanding of epidemiological and immunological factors influencing the transmission dynamics of dengue. This review provide insights on general features to be considered to model aspects of real-world public health problems, such as the current epidemiological scenario we are living in.
Topics: Animals; Antibodies, Viral; COVID-19; Dengue; Dengue Virus; Humans; Models, Theoretical; Mosquito Vectors; Pandemics; SARS-CoV-2
PubMed: 35219611
DOI: 10.1016/j.plrev.2022.02.001 -
Tropical Medicine & International... Apr 2023Arboviruses are emerging as a relevant threat to transfusion safety. Pathogen inactivation methods (PIMs) may reduce the risk of transmission through transfusion, as... (Meta-Analysis)
Meta-Analysis Review
OBJECTIVE
Arboviruses are emerging as a relevant threat to transfusion safety. Pathogen inactivation methods (PIMs) may reduce the risk of transmission through transfusion, as long as they meet minimum standards for effectiveness. This study aims to assess the log reduction of viral load achieved with different PIMs, according to the blood product they are used on and the arbovirus targeted.
METHODS
Systematic literature review and meta-analysis. Searches were conducted in MEDLINE and Embase. The study protocol was registered in PROSPERO CRD42022312061. We selected records reporting the log reduction of viral load achieved with the main PIMs (amotosalen + UVA light [INTERCEPT], riboflavin + UV light [Mirasol], methylene blue + visible light/UVC light [THERAFLEX], solvent detergent, amustaline [INTERCEPT] and PEN110 [Inactine]), applied to any blood product (plasma, platelets, red blood cells or whole blood) and for any arbovirus. The log reduction of viral loads was assessed by obtaining the mean log reduction factor (LRF). We compared and classified the LRF of different techniques using statistical methods.
RESULTS
We included 59 publications reporting LRF results in 17 arboviruses. For 13 arboviruses, including Chikungunya virus, Dengue virus, West Nile virus and Zika virus, at least one of the methods achieves adequate or optimal log reduction of viral load-mean LRF ≥4. The LRF achieved with riboflavin + UV light is inferior to the rest of the techniques, both overall and specifically for plasma, platelets preserved in platelet additive solution (PAS)/plasma, and red blood cells/whole blood. The LRF achieved using Mirasol is also lower for inactivating Chikungunya virus, Dengue virus and Zika virus. For West Nile virus, we found no significant differences. In plasma, the method that achieves the highest LRF is solvent/detergent; in platelets, THERAFLEX and INTERCEPT; and in red blood cells/whole blood, PEN110 (Inactine).
CONCLUSION
Not all PIMs achieve the same LRF, nor is this equivalent between the different arboviruses or blood products. Overall, the LRFs achieved using riboflavin + UV light (Mirasol) are inferior to those achieved with the rest of the PIMs. Regarding the others, LRFs vary by arbovirus and blood product. In light of the threat of different arboviruses, blood establishments should have already validated PIMs and be logistically prepared to implement these techniques quickly.
Topics: Humans; Arboviruses; Detergents; Polyamines; Zika Virus; Riboflavin; Zika Virus Infection
PubMed: 36806816
DOI: 10.1111/tmi.13863 -
Reviews in Medical Virology Mar 2020Imported dengue cases are thought to be important source for transmission of autochthonous dengue in Europe. We aimed to investigate the prevalence of dengue in Europe,... (Meta-Analysis)
Meta-Analysis
Imported dengue cases are thought to be important source for transmission of autochthonous dengue in Europe. We aimed to investigate the prevalence of dengue in Europe, its severity, and factors associated with it. Out of 5287 reports resulting from the search of nine electronic search engines, we included 174 reports. Meta-analysis was performed by pooling the event rate and 95% confidence interval (CI). Subgroup meta-analyses were performed to test the effect of the covariates. Among 20 284 reported cases, 130 autochthonous dengue cases were reported in eight countries with the highest number of cases reported in Israel (n = 41). The highest number of imported dengue cases was in Germany (n = 6638) then France (n = 6610). Most cases were imported from Southeast Asia (n = 2533) especially Thailand. Dengue infection cases increased with time, with 4157 cases reported in 2010. Second dengue infection and dengue serotype 2 were positively associated with dengue severity. The proportion of autochthonous dengue infection increased with time to reach 14.8% (95% CI, 7.6-26.9) in 2015. The pooled proportion of severe dengue was 6.18% (95% CI, 2.7-13.3). The United Kingdom and France had the highest rate of severe dengue (25%; 95% CI, 6.3-62.3, and 21.4%; 95% CI, 24.5-18.7, respectively). This change may be due to the surveillance efforts instead of true biological phenomenon; thus, the lack of surveillance is an obvious limitation. In conclusion, imported and autochthonous dengue has been increasing in Europe. Severe dengue began to increase recently in Europe. European health authorities should pay more attention for the diagnosis and control of dengue infection among returning travelers, especially the travelers with fever of unknown origin.
Topics: Animals; Cost of Illness; Dengue; Dengue Virus; Europe; Humans; Population Surveillance; Prevalence
PubMed: 31833169
DOI: 10.1002/rmv.2093 -
Frontiers in Public Health 2022The mosquito species, which are the vectors for the transmission of the dengue virus (DENV) to humans, are becoming increasingly susceptible to the formidable effects... (Meta-Analysis)
Meta-Analysis
INTRODUCTION
The mosquito species, which are the vectors for the transmission of the dengue virus (DENV) to humans, are becoming increasingly susceptible to the formidable effects of influential factors, especially temperature. However, there are still very few studies that have systematically reviewed the existing literature. Hence, in the present study, a systematic literature review and meta-analysis was conducted into the effects of temperature on dengue vectors.
METHOD
Several research methodologies were incorporated into the current study, and a review was carried out using PRISMA as a guide. The publications for this study were chosen from two prominent databases, Scopus and Web of Science. All of the studies were assessed, reviewed, and evaluated independently by two reviewers. The meta-analysis tool, Review Manager (RevMan Copenhagen Version 5.4.1), was used to record the extracted data for the meta-analysis. Moran's and a funnel plot were utilized to measure heterogeneity, and publication bias was investigated. A 95% confidence interval (CI) and overall risk difference (RD) were estimated using a random-effects model.
RESULT AND DISCUSSION
As a consequence of the search efforts, a total of 46 articles were selected for inclusion in the systematic review and meta-analysis. This review was divided into five major themes, based on a thematic analysis: (i) hatching rate, (ii) development time, (iii) longevity, (iv) survival rate, and (v) wing morphology. In addition, the development time, survival rate, and wing morphology revealed significantly higher risk differences between the maximum and minimum temperatures (RD: 0.26, 95% CI: 0.16, 0.36; = < 0.00001; RD: 0.10, 95% CI: 0.05, 0.14; < 0.0001; and RD: 0.07, 95% CI: 0.02, 0.12; = 0.006, respectively). This study makes several substantial contributions to the body of knowledge and to practical applications. Finally, a number of recommendations are made at the conclusion of this research for the future reference of researchers.
Topics: Humans; Animals; Aedes; Temperature; Mosquito Vectors; Fever; Longevity
PubMed: 36600940
DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2022.1074028 -
Infection & Chemotherapy Jun 2021Data on Dengue virus (DENV) infection prevalence, geographic distribution and risk factors are necessary to direct appropriate utilization of existing and emerging...
BACKROUND
Data on Dengue virus (DENV) infection prevalence, geographic distribution and risk factors are necessary to direct appropriate utilization of existing and emerging control strategies. This study aimed to determine the pooled prevalence, risk factors of DENV infection and the circulating serotypes within Nigeria from January 1, 2009 to December 31, 2020.
MATERIALS AND METHODS
Twenty-one studies out of 2,215 available articles were eligible and included for this systematic review. Relevant articles were searched, screened and included in this study according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) criteria. The risk of bias in primary studies was assessed by Cochrane's method. Heterogeneity of pooled prevalence was calculated using the chi-square test on Cochrane's Q statistic, which was quantified by I-square values. The random-effects analyses of proportions were used to determine the pooled prevalence of DENV antibodies, antigen and RNA from eligible studies.
RESULTS
Of these, 3 studies reported co-circulation of all the 4 serotypes, while 2 separately reported co-circulation of DENV-1 &2 and DENV-1 to -3. All the antibody-based studies had significantly high heterogeneity (I² >90%, <0.05), while the NS1 and PCR-based studies had low heterogeneity (I² <25%, >0.05). The pooled prevalence of DENV IgM, IgG, RNA, NS1 and neutralizing antibodies were 16.8%, 34.7%, 7.7%, 7.7% and 0.7%, respectively. South-east Nigeria had the highest pooled DENV-IgG seropositivity, 77.1%. Marital status, gender, educational level and occupation status, the proximity of residence to refuse dumpsite, frequent use of trousers and long sleeve shirts were significantly associated with DENV IgG seropositivity ( <0.05).
CONCLUSION
Based on these findings, it can be inferred that Nigeria is hyperendemic for Dengue fever and needs concerted efforts to control its spread within and outside the country.
PubMed: 34216122
DOI: 10.3947/ic.2020.0142 -
PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases Jan 2017Dengue, the predominant arthropod-borne viral disease affecting humans, is caused by one of four distinct serotypes (DENV-1, -2, -3 or -4). A literature analysis and... (Review)
Review
Dengue, the predominant arthropod-borne viral disease affecting humans, is caused by one of four distinct serotypes (DENV-1, -2, -3 or -4). A literature analysis and review was undertaken to describe the molecular epidemiological trends in dengue disease and the knowledge generated in specific molecular topics in Latin America, including the Caribbean islands, from 2000 to 2013 in the context of regional trends in order to identify gaps in molecular epidemiological knowledge and future research needs. Searches of literature published between 1 January 2000 and 30 November 2013 were conducted using specific search strategies for each electronic database that was reviewed. A total of 396 relevant citations were identified, 57 of which fulfilled the inclusion criteria. All four dengue virus serotypes were present and co-circulated in many countries over the review period (with the predominance of individual serotypes varying by country and year). The number of countries in which more than one serotype circulated steadily increased during the period under review. Molecular epidemiology data were found for Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, the Caribbean region, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico and Central America, Paraguay, Peru and Venezuela. Distinct lineages with different dynamics were found in each country, with co-existence, extinction and replacement of lineages occurring over the review period. Despite some gaps in the literature limiting the possibility for comparison, our review has described the molecular epidemiological trends of dengue infection. However, several gaps in molecular epidemiological information across Latin America and the Caribbean were identified that provide avenues for future research; in particular, sequence determination of the dengue virus genome is important for more precise phylogenetic classification and correlation with clinical outcome and disease severity.
Topics: Dengue; Dengue Virus; Humans; Latin America; Molecular Epidemiology; Phylogeny; South America
PubMed: 28068335
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0005224 -
PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases Nov 2023Neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) affect most impoverished communities in developing countries, like Myanmar in Southeast Asia. NTDs have been understudied and...
BACKGROUND
Neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) affect most impoverished communities in developing countries, like Myanmar in Southeast Asia. NTDs have been understudied and underreported in Myanmar.
METHODS
A systematic review of published and grey literature (1900-2023) on neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) in Myanmar was conducted. The literature search included five international databases: PubMed, EMBASE, Ovid Global Health, and Web of Science Core Collection and one national database: the Myanmar Central Biomedical Library (locally published papers and grey literature). The selection criteria included articles with all types of study designs of current or previous infections conducted in humans, that reported NTDs, recognised by WHO, US CDC, and listed in PLoS NTDs. We included melioidosis and rickettsioses which we consider also meet the definition of an NTD.
RESULTS
A total of 5941 records were retrieved and screened, of which, 672 (11%) met the selection criteria and were included in this review. Of the included articles, 449 (65%) were published after 2000 and 369 (55%) were from two regions (Yangon and Mandalay) of Myanmar. Of the included articles, 238 (35%) reported bacterial NTDs, 212 (32%) viral NTDs, 153 (23%) helminth NTDs, 25 (4%) protozoal NTDs and 39 (6%) reported more than one aetiology. Based on reported frequency in descending order, the bacterial NTDs were leprosy, Escherichia coli enteritis, salmonellosis, cholera, shigellosis, melioidosis, leptospirosis and rickettsioses; the viral NTDs were dengue, chikungunya and Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) infection; the protozoal NTDs were amoebiasis, giardiasis and leishmaniasis, and the helminth NTDs were ascariasis, trichuriasis, hookworm disease, filariasis and strongyloidiasis.
CONCLUSION
This review summarises NTDs reported in Myanmar over the past 100 years. The findings suggest that most NTDs are likely to be under reported, especially from the majority of the country which is far from academic centres. Research capacity building together with strengthening of laboratory systems would lead to better understanding of the true burden of NTDs in Myanmar.
TRIAL REGISTRATION
PROSPERO registration ID: CRD42018092627.
Topics: Animals; Humans; Myanmar; Melioidosis; Ascariasis; Helminths; Neglected Diseases; Tropical Medicine; Encephalitis, Japanese; Rickettsia Infections
PubMed: 37910592
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0011706 -
Tropical Medicine and Infectious Disease Apr 2023Flaviviruses include virus species that are major public health threats worldwide. To determine the immunity landscape of these viruses, seroprevalence studies are often... (Review)
Review
Flaviviruses include virus species that are major public health threats worldwide. To determine the immunity landscape of these viruses, seroprevalence studies are often performed using IgG ELISA, which is a simple and rapid alternative to the virus neutralization test. In this review, we aim to describe the trends in flavivirus IgG ELISA-based serosurveys. A systematic literature review using six databases was performed to collate cohort and cross-sectional studies performed on the general population. A total of 204 studies were included in this review. The results show that most studies were performed on dengue virus (DENV), whereas Japanese Encephalitis Virus (JEV) was the least studied. For geographic distribution, serosurveys followed known disease prevalence. Temporally, the number of serosurveys increased after outbreaks and epidemics except for JEV, for which studies were performed to demonstrate the effectiveness of vaccination campaigns. Commercial kits were more commonly used than in-house assays for DENV, West Nile Virus (WNV), and Zika virus (ZIKV). Overall, most studies employed an indirect ELISA format, and the choice of antigens varied per virus. This review shows that flavivirus epidemiology is related to the regional and temporal distribution of serosurveys. It also highlights that endemicity, cross-reactivities, and kit availabilities affect assay choice in serosurveys.
PubMed: 37104349
DOI: 10.3390/tropicalmed8040224 -
BMC Infectious Diseases May 2023Identification of pleural effusion (PE) in dengue infection is an objective measure of plasma leakage and may predict disease progression. However, no studies have... (Meta-Analysis)
Meta-Analysis
BACKGROUND
Identification of pleural effusion (PE) in dengue infection is an objective measure of plasma leakage and may predict disease progression. However, no studies have systematically assessed the frequency of PE in patients with dengue, and whether this differs across age and imaging modality.
METHODS
We searched Pubmed, Embase Web of Science and Lilacs (period 1900-2021) for studies reporting on PE in dengue patients (hospitalized and outpatient). We defined PE as fluid in the thoracic cavity detected by any imaging test. The study was registered in PROSPERO (CRD42021228862). Complicated dengue was defined as hemorrhagic fever, dengue shock syndrome or severe dengue.
RESULTS
The search identified 2,157 studies of which 85 studies were eligible for inclusion. The studies (n = 31 children, n = 10 adults, n = 44 mixed age) involved 12,800 patients (30% complicated dengue). The overall frequency of PE was 33% [95%CI: 29 to 37%] and the rate of PE increased significantly with disease severity (P = 0.001) such that in complicated vs. uncomplicated dengue the frequencies were 48% and 17% (P < 0.001). When assessing all studies, PE occurred significantly more often in children compared to adults (43% vs. 13%, P = 0.002) and lung ultrasound more frequently detected PE than conventional chest X-ray (P = 0.023).
CONCLUSIONS
We found that 1/3 of dengue patients presented with PE and the frequency increased with severity and younger age. Importantly, lung ultrasound demonstrated the highest rate of detection. Our findings suggest that PE is a relatively common finding in dengue and that bedside imaging tools, such as lung ultrasound, potentially may enhance detection.
Topics: Adult; Child; Humans; Severe Dengue; Exudates and Transudates; Pleural Effusion; Plasma; Ultrasonography; Dengue
PubMed: 37189054
DOI: 10.1186/s12879-023-08311-y -
PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases Jun 2024Despite its well-regarded vector control program, Singapore remains susceptible to dengue epidemics. To assist evaluation of dengue interventions, we aimed to synthesize...
BACKGROUND
Despite its well-regarded vector control program, Singapore remains susceptible to dengue epidemics. To assist evaluation of dengue interventions, we aimed to synthesize current data on the epidemiologic and economic burden of dengue in Singapore.
METHODOLOGY
We used multiple databases (PubMed, Embase, Cochrane, international/national repositories, surveillance) to search for published and gray literature (2000-2022). We included observational and cost studies, and two interventional studies, reporting Singapore-specific data on our co-primary outcomes, dengue incidence and dengue-related costs. Quality was assessed using the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale and an adapted cost-of-illness evaluation checklist. We performed a narrative synthesis and grouped studies according to reported outcomes and available stratified analyses.
FINDINGS
In total, 333 reports (330 epidemiological, 3 economic) were included. Most published epidemiological studies (89%) and all economic studies were of good quality. All gray literature reports were from the Ministry of Health or National Environment Agency. Based predominantly on surveillance data, Singapore experienced multiple outbreaks in 2000-2021, attaining peak incidence rate in 2020 (621.1 cases/100,000 person-years). Stratified analyses revealed the highest incidence rates in DENV-2 and DENV-3 serotypes and the 15-44 age group. Among dengue cases, the risk of hospitalization has been highest in the ≥45-year-old age groups while the risks of dengue hemorrhagic fever and death have generally been low (both <1%) for the last decade. Our search yielded limited data on deaths by age, severity, and infection type (primary, secondary, post-secondary). Seroprevalence (dengue immunoglobulin G) increases with age but has remained <50% in the general population. Comprising 21-63% indirect costs, dengue-related total costs were higher in 2010-2020 (SGD 148 million) versus the preceding decade (SGD 58-110 million).
CONCLUSION
Despite abundant passive surveillance data, more stratified and up-to-date data on the epidemiologic and economic burden of dengue are warranted in Singapore to continuously assess prevention and management strategies.
Topics: Singapore; Humans; Dengue; Cost of Illness; Incidence; Dengue Virus; Hospitalization; Adult
PubMed: 38857260
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0012240