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Emerging Infectious Diseases Aug 2023Guatemala implemented wastewater-based poliovirus surveillance in 2018, and three genetically unrelated vaccine-derived polioviruses (VDPVs) were detected in 2019. The... (Review)
Review
Guatemala implemented wastewater-based poliovirus surveillance in 2018, and three genetically unrelated vaccine-derived polioviruses (VDPVs) were detected in 2019. The Ministry of Health (MoH) response included event investigation through institutional and community retrospective case searches for acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) during 2018-2020 and a bivalent oral polio/measles, mumps, and rubella vaccination campaign in September 2019. This response was reviewed by an international expert team in July 2021. During the campaign, 93% of children 6 months <7 years of age received a polio-containing vaccine dose. No AFP cases were detected in the community search; institutional retrospective searches found 37% of unreported AFP cases in 2018‒2020. No additional VDPV was isolated from wastewater. No evidence of circulating VDPV was found; the 3 isolated VDPVs were classified as ambiguous VDPVs by the international team of experts. These detections highlight risk for poliomyelitis reemergence in countries with low polio vaccine coverage.
Topics: Child; Humans; Poliovirus; Poliovirus Vaccine, Oral; Wastewater; Guatemala; Retrospective Studies; Poliomyelitis; Environmental Monitoring
PubMed: 37486156
DOI: 10.3201/eid2908.230236 -
Vaccine Feb 2024Delays in achieving polio eradication have led to ongoing risks of poliovirus importations that may cause outbreaks in polio-free countries. Because of the low, but...
Trade-offs of different poliovirus vaccine options for outbreak response in the United States and other countries that only use inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV) in routine immunization.
Delays in achieving polio eradication have led to ongoing risks of poliovirus importations that may cause outbreaks in polio-free countries. Because of the low, but non-zero risk of paralysis with oral poliovirus vaccines (OPVs), countries that achieve and maintain high national routine immunization coverage have increasingly shifted to exclusive use of inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV) for all preventive immunizations. However, immunization coverage within countries varies, with under-vaccinated subpopulations potentially able to sustain transmission of imported polioviruses and experience local outbreaks. Due to its cost, ease-of-use, and ability to induce mucosal immunity, using OPV as an outbreak control measure offers a more cost-effective option in countries in which OPV remains in use. However, recent polio outbreaks in IPV-only countries raise questions about whether and when IPV use for outbreak response may fail to stop poliovirus transmission and what consequences may follow from using OPV for outbreak response in these countries. We systematically reviewed the literature to identify modeling studies that explored the use of IPV for outbreak response in IPV-only countries. In addition, applying a model of the 2022 type 2 poliovirus outbreak in New York, we characterized the implications of using different OPV formulations for outbreak response instead of IPV. We also explored the hypothetical scenario of the same outbreak except for type 1 poliovirus instead of type 2. We find that using IPV for outbreak response will likely only stop outbreaks for polioviruses of relatively low transmission potential in countries with very high overall immunization coverage, seasonal transmission dynamics, and only if IPV immunization interventions reach some unvaccinated individuals. Using OPV for outbreak response in IPV-only countries poses substantial risks and challenges that require careful consideration, but may represent an option to consider for some outbreaks in some populations depending on the properties of the available vaccines and coverage attainable.
Topics: Humans; United States; Poliovirus Vaccine, Inactivated; Poliovirus; Poliovirus Vaccine, Oral; Poliomyelitis; Disease Outbreaks; Vaccination; New York
PubMed: 38218668
DOI: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2023.12.081 -
The Pan African Medical Journal 2023Nigeria made a coordinated effort to be certified by the World Health Organization's African Region for interrupting endemic transmission of wild poliovirus type-1... (Review)
Review
Nigeria made a coordinated effort to be certified by the World Health Organization's African Region for interrupting endemic transmission of wild poliovirus type-1 (WPV1) in August 2020 as a response to the resurgence of WPV1 cases in August 2016 after going two years without a case. The NEOC Data Working Group (DWG) was instrumental in providing quality and timely surveillance and campaign information for decision-making in order to interrupt WPV1 transmission and provide data toward documentation of its elimination for regional certification. The polio pre-campaign dashboard was used to assess the level of preparedness for Oral Poliovirus Vaccine (OPV) polio supplementary immunization activities (SIA) at three weeks, two weeks, one week, and three days to the start of each campaign implemented during 2016-2020. The administrative tally sheet, independent monitoring survey, and Lot Quality Assurance Sampling (LQAS) survey data collected and shared from the implementation level were analyzed by the EOC DWG to provide information by person, place, and time. Using a 90% threshold in LQAS surveys defining quality SIAs, the proportion of Local Government Areas (LGAs) in Nigeria's states in which post-SIA LQAS surveys were conducted that met this threshold were assessed over time. The highest level of preparedness attained by 3 days to a polio campaign during August 2016-February 2020 was 95% and the lowest attained was 77%. The admin, independent monitoring, and LQAS data analysis results were given to EOC working groups for assessing the performance and quality of each campaign. Twenty-twenty five percent of LGAs that failed LQAS were identified for repeat vaccination. Further, acute flaccid paralysis and environmental surveillance data and laboratory results were analyzed and shared with NEOC and partners. The government and partners used the information generated by the Data Working Group to take evidence-based action including determining the scope of the polio campaign, intensification of surveillance and routine immunization activities, and special intervention activities. On average, 12% of the 774 LGAs were identified as polio high risk LGAs for intervention using selected surveillance, routine immunization (RI), SIAs, and other relevant data sets. National Emergency Operation Centre Data Working Group provided quality and timely information that supported decision-making processes for the polio program in Nigeria. The quality and timely information enabled the NEOC to make evidence-based and timely decisions that contributed to gap identification and decision-making.
Topics: Humans; Lot Quality Assurance Sampling; Disease Eradication; Poliomyelitis; Poliovirus; Poliovirus Vaccine, Oral; Nigeria; Immunization Programs
PubMed: 38370106
DOI: 10.11604/pamj.supp.2023.45.2.39489 -
Vaccine: X Jun 2024Despite the successes of the Global Polio Eradication Initiative, substantial challenges remain in eradicating the poliovirus. The Sabin-strain (live-attenuated) virus...
BACKGROUND
Despite the successes of the Global Polio Eradication Initiative, substantial challenges remain in eradicating the poliovirus. The Sabin-strain (live-attenuated) virus in oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) can revert to circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus (cVDPV) in under-vaccinated communities, regain neurovirulence and transmissibility, and cause paralysis outbreaks. Since the cessation of type 2-containing OPV (OPV2) in 2016, there have been cVDPV type 2 (cVDPV2) outbreaks in four out of six geographical World Health Organization regions, making these outbreaks a significant public health threat. Preparing for and responding to cVDPV2 outbreaks requires an updated understanding of how different factors, such as outbreak responses with the novel type of OPV2 (nOPV2) and the existence of under-vaccinated areas, affect the disease spread.
METHODS
We built a differential-equation-based model to simulate the transmission of cVDPV2 following reversion of the Sabin-strain virus in prolonged circulation. The model incorporates vaccinations by essential (routine) immunization and supplementary immunization activities (SIAs), the immunity induced by different poliovirus vaccines, and the reversion process from Sabin-strain virus to cVDPV. The model's outcomes include weekly cVDPV2 paralytic case counts and the die-out date when cVDPV2 transmission stops. In a case study of Northwest and Northeast Nigeria, we fit the model to data on the weekly cVDPV2 case counts with onset in 2018-2021. We then used the model to test the impact of different outbreak response scenarios during a prediction period of 2022-2023. The response scenarios included no response, the planned response (based on Nigeria's SIA calendar), and a set of hypothetical responses that vary in the dates at which SIAs started. The planned response scenario included two rounds of SIAs that covered almost all areas of Northwest and Northeast Nigeria except some under-vaccinated areas (e.g., Sokoto). The hypothetical response scenarios involved two, three, and four rounds of SIAs that covered the whole Northwest and Northeast Nigeria. All SIAs in tested outbreak response scenarios used nOPV2. We compared the outcomes of tested outbreak response scenarios in the prediction period.
RESULTS
Modeled cVDPV2 weekly case counts aligned spatiotemporally with the data. The prediction results indicated that implementing the planned response reduced total case counts by 79% compared to no response, but did not stop the transmission, especially in under-vaccinated areas. Implementing the hypothetical response scenarios involving two rounds of nOPV2 SIAs that covered all areas further reduced cVDPV2 case counts in under-vaccinated areas by 91-95% compared to the planned response, with greater impact from completing the two rounds at an earlier time, but it did not stop the transmission. When the first two rounds were completed in early April 2022, implementing two additional rounds stopped the transmission in late January 2023. When the first two rounds were completed six weeks earlier (i.e., in late February 2022), implementing one (two) additional round stopped the transmission in early February 2023 (late November 2022). The die out was always achieved last in the under-vaccinated areas of Northwest and Northeast Nigeria.
CONCLUSIONS
A differential-equation-based model of poliovirus transmission was developed and validated in a case study of Northwest and Northeast Nigeria. The results highlighted (i) the effectiveness of nOPV2 in reducing outbreak case counts; (ii) the need for more rounds of outbreak response SIAs that covered all of Northwest and Northeast Nigeria in 2022 to stop the cVDPV2 outbreaks; (iii) that persistent transmission in under-vaccinated areas delayed the progress towards stopping outbreaks; and (iv) that a quicker outbreak response would avert more paralytic cases and require fewer SIA rounds to stop the outbreaks.
PubMed: 38617838
DOI: 10.1016/j.jvacx.2024.100476 -
MMWR. Morbidity and Mortality Weekly... Jun 2024Since the launch of the Global Polio Eradication Initiative in 1988, substantial progress has been made in the interruption of wild poliovirus (WPV) transmission...
Since the launch of the Global Polio Eradication Initiative in 1988, substantial progress has been made in the interruption of wild poliovirus (WPV) transmission worldwide: global eradication of WPV types 2 and 3 were certified in 2015 and 2019, respectively, and endemic transmission of WPV type 1 continues only in Afghanistan and Pakistan. After the synchronized global withdrawal of all serotype 2 oral poliovirus vaccines (OPVs) in 2016, widespread outbreaks of circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus type 2 (cVDPV2) have occurred, which are linked to areas with low population immunity to poliovirus. Officials in Somalia have detected ongoing cVDPV2 transmission since 2017. Polio vaccination coverage and surveillance data for Somalia were reviewed to assess this persistent transmission. During January 2017-March 2024, officials in Somalia detected 39 cVDPV2 cases in 14 of 20 regions, and transmission has spread to neighboring Ethiopia and Kenya. Since January 2021, 28 supplementary immunization activities (SIAs) targeting cVDPV2 were conducted in Somalia. Some parts of the country are security-compromised and inaccessible for vaccination campaigns. Among 1,921 children with nonpolio acute flaccid paralysis, 231 (12%) had not received OPV doses through routine immunization or SIAs, 95% of whom were from the South-Central region, and 60% of whom lived in inaccessible districts. Enhancing humanitarian negotiation measures in Somalia to enable vaccination of children in security-compromised areas and strengthening campaign quality in accessible areas will help interrupt cVDPV2 transmission.
Topics: Humans; Poliomyelitis; Somalia; Poliovirus; Poliovirus Vaccine, Oral; Disease Outbreaks; Child, Preschool; Infant; Population Surveillance; Immunization Programs; Vaccination Coverage; Child
PubMed: 38935565
DOI: 10.15585/mmwr.mm7325a2 -
Medical Decision Making : An... 2023Polio antiviral drugs (PAVDs) may provide a critical tool in the eradication endgame by stopping poliovirus infections in immunodeficient individuals who may not clear...
BACKGROUND
Polio antiviral drugs (PAVDs) may provide a critical tool in the eradication endgame by stopping poliovirus infections in immunodeficient individuals who may not clear the virus without therapeutic intervention. Although prolonged/chronic poliovirus excreters are rare, they represent a source of poliovirus reintroduction into the general population. Prior studies that assumed the successful cessation of all oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) use estimated the potential upper bound of the incremental net benefits (INBs) of resource investments in research and development of PAVDs. However, delays in polio eradication, OPV cessation, and the development of PAVDs necessitate an updated economic analysis to reevaluate the costs and benefits of further investments in PAVDs.
METHODS
Using a global integrated model of polio transmission, immunity, vaccine dynamics, risks, and economics, we explore the risks of reintroduction of polio transmission due to immunodeficiency-related vaccine-derived poliovirus (iVDPV) excreters and reevaluate the upper bound of the INBs of PAVDs.
RESULTS
Under the current conditions, for which the use of OPV will likely continue for the foreseeable future, even with successful eradication of type 1 wild poliovirus by the end of 2023 and continued use of Sabin OPV for outbreak response, we estimate an upper bound INB of 60 million US$2019. With >100 million US$2019 already invested in PAVD development and with the introduction of novel OPVs that are less likely to revert to neurovirulence, our analysis suggests the expected INBs of PAVDs would not offset their costs.
CONCLUSIONS
While PAVDs could play an important role in the polio endgame, their expected economic benefits drop with ongoing OPV use and poliovirus transmissions. However, stakeholders may pursue the development of PAVDs as a desired product regardless of their economic benefits.HighlightsWhile polio antiviral drugs could play an important role in the polio endgame, their expected economic benefits continue to drop with delays in polio eradication and the continued use of oral poliovirus vaccines.The incremental net benefits of investments in polio antiviral drug development and screening for immunodeficiency-related circulating polioviruses are small.Limited global resources are better spent on increasing global population immunity to polioviruses to stop and prevent poliovirus transmission.
Topics: Humans; Poliomyelitis; Poliovirus; Poliovirus Vaccine, Oral; Disease Outbreaks; Antiviral Agents
PubMed: 37577803
DOI: 10.1177/0272989X231191127 -
Revista Brasileira de Epidemiologia =... 2023To analyze the temporal and spatial distribution of polio vaccine coverage in Brazilian states.
OBJECTIVE
To analyze the temporal and spatial distribution of polio vaccine coverage in Brazilian states.
METHODS
An ecological time series study was conducted using data from the National Immunization Program Information System. The analyzed period was from 1997 to 2021. Joinpoint software was used to calculate the annual percentage change and average annual percentage change through regressions. QGIS 3.10.7 software was used to construct thematic maps. GeoDa 1.20.0.10 software was used to estimate spatial autocorrelation using the Global Moran's Index and Local Moran's Index.
RESULTS
National vaccine coverage in 1997 was 89.27%, decreasing to 61.32% in 2021. The trend analysis indicated an average annual decrease of 1.5% in polio vaccine coverage in Brazil. Across the country, 17 states showed a statistically significant reduction in the average annual percentage change rate. The highest average reduction rates in vaccine coverage among Brazilian states were observed in Amapá (-3.7%; 95%CI -6.0; -1.4) and Pernambuco (-3.3%; 95%CI -4.0; -2.5). In the spatial analysis, in Moran Global, a positive autocorrelation was identified in the years 2012 to 2021 (p<0.02), with an index value of 0.361, which means that geographically close areas tended to have similar levels of vaccination coverage.
CONCLUSION
There was significant heterogeneity in coverage among states and a strong decrease trend in vaccination rates, which could facilitate the circulation of the poliovirus and pose a threat to the susceptible population.
Topics: Humans; Brazil; Immunization Programs; Poliomyelitis; Vaccination; Vaccination Coverage; Spatio-Temporal Analysis
PubMed: 37646734
DOI: 10.1590/1980-549720230037 -
Expert Review of Vaccines 2024Despite multiple revisions of targets and timelines in polio eradication plans since 1988, including changes in supplemental immunization activities (SIAs) that increase... (Review)
Review
BACKGROUND
Despite multiple revisions of targets and timelines in polio eradication plans since 1988, including changes in supplemental immunization activities (SIAs) that increase immunity above routine immunization (RI) coverage, poliovirus transmission continues as of 2024.
METHODS
We reviewed polio eradication plans and Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) annual reports and budgets to characterize key phases of polio eradication, the evolution of poliovirus vaccines, and the role of SIAs. We used polio epidemiology to provide context for successes and failures and updated prior modeling to show the contribution of SIAs in achieving and maintaining low polio incidence compared to expected incidence for the counterfactual of RI only.
RESULTS
We identified multiple phases of polio eradication that included shifts in targets and timelines and the introduction of different poliovirus vaccines, which influenced polio epidemiology. Notable shifts occurred in GPEI investments in SIAs since 2001, particularly since 2016. Modeling results suggest that SIAs play(ed) a key role in increasing (and maintaining) high population immunity to levels required to eradicate poliovirus transmission globally.
CONCLUSIONS
Shifts in polio eradication strategy and poliovirus vaccine usage in SIAs provide important context for understanding polio epidemiology, delayed achievement of polio eradication milestones, and complexity of the polio endgame.
Topics: Poliomyelitis; Humans; Disease Eradication; Global Health; Poliovirus Vaccines; Immunization Programs; Incidence; Poliovirus
PubMed: 38813792
DOI: 10.1080/14760584.2024.2361060 -
Virus Evolution 2023The oral poliovirus vaccines (OPVs) are one of the most effective disease eradication tools in public health. However, the OPV strains are genetically unstable and can...
The oral poliovirus vaccines (OPVs) are one of the most effective disease eradication tools in public health. However, the OPV strains are genetically unstable and can cause outbreaks of circulating, vaccine-derived Type 2 poliovirus (cVDPV2) that are clinically indistinguishable from wild poliovirus (WPV) outbreaks. Here, we developed a Sabin 2 reversion model that simulates the reversion of Sabin 2 to reacquire a WPV-like phenotype based on the clinical differences in shedding duration and infectiousness between individuals vaccinated with Sabin 2 and those infected with WPV. Genetic reversion is informed by a canonical reversion pathway defined by three gatekeeper mutations (A481G, U2909C, and U398C) and the accumulation of deleterious nonsynonymous mutations. Our model captures essential aspects of both phenotypic and molecular evolution and simulates transmission using a multiscale transmission model that consolidates the relationships among immunity, susceptibility, and transmission risk. Despite rapid Sabin 2 attenuation reversal, we show that the emergence of a revertant virus does not guarantee a cVDPV2 outbreak. When simulating outbreaks in Matlab, Bangladesh, we found that cVDPV2 outbreaks are most likely in areas with low population-level immunity and poor sanitation. In Matlab, our model predicted that declining immunity against Type 2 poliovirus following the cessation of routine OPV vaccination was not enough to promote cVDPV2 emergence. However, cVDPV2 emergencedepended on the average viral exposure dose per contact, which was modeled as a combination of the viral concentration per fecal gram and the average fecal-oral dose per contact. These results suggest that cVDPV2 emergence risk can be mitigated by reducing the amount of infectious fecal material individuals are exposed to. Thus, a combined strategy of assessing and improving sanitation levels in conjunction with high-coverage vaccination campaigns could limit the future cVDPV2 emergence.
PubMed: 37692896
DOI: 10.1093/ve/vead044 -
BMC Infectious Diseases May 2024To assess the immunogenicity of the current primary polio vaccination schedule in China and compare it with alternative schedules using Sabin or Salk-strain IPV (sIPV,...
BACKGROUND
To assess the immunogenicity of the current primary polio vaccination schedule in China and compare it with alternative schedules using Sabin or Salk-strain IPV (sIPV, wIPV).
METHODS
A cross-sectional investigation was conducted at four sites in Chongqing, China, healthy infants aged 60-89 days were conveniently recruited and divided into four groups according to their received primary polio vaccination schedules (2sIPV + bOPV, 2wIPV + bOPV, 3sIPV, and 3wIPV). The sero-protection and neutralizing antibody titers against poliovirus serotypes (type 1, 2, and 3) were compared after the last dose.
RESULTS
There were 408 infants completed the protocol. The observed seropositivity was more than 96% against poliovirus types 1, 2, and 3 in all groups. IPV-only groups induced higher antibody titers(GMT) against poliovirus type 2 (Median:192, QR: 96-384, P<0.05) than the "2IPV + bOPV" group. While the "2IPV + bOPV" group induced significantly higher antibody titers against poliovirus type 1 (Median:2048, QR: 768-2048, P<0.05)and type 3 (Median:2048, QR: 512-2048, P<0.05) than the IPV-only group.
CONCLUSIONS
Our findings have proved that the two doses of IPV with one dose of bOPV is currently the best polio routine immunization schedule in China.
Topics: Humans; Poliovirus Vaccine, Inactivated; Poliomyelitis; Infant; Poliovirus Vaccine, Oral; Male; Immunization Schedule; Female; Antibodies, Viral; Cross-Sectional Studies; China; Antibodies, Neutralizing; Poliovirus; Immunogenicity, Vaccine; Vaccination
PubMed: 38807038
DOI: 10.1186/s12879-024-09389-8