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The New England Journal of Medicine Oct 2023Five modifiable risk factors are associated with cardiovascular disease and death from any cause. Studies using individual-level data to evaluate the regional and... (Meta-Analysis)
Meta-Analysis
BACKGROUND
Five modifiable risk factors are associated with cardiovascular disease and death from any cause. Studies using individual-level data to evaluate the regional and sex-specific prevalence of the risk factors and their effect on these outcomes are lacking.
METHODS
We pooled and harmonized individual-level data from 112 cohort studies conducted in 34 countries and 8 geographic regions participating in the Global Cardiovascular Risk Consortium. We examined associations between the risk factors (body-mass index, systolic blood pressure, non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, current smoking, and diabetes) and incident cardiovascular disease and death from any cause using Cox regression analyses, stratified according to geographic region, age, and sex. Population-attributable fractions were estimated for the 10-year incidence of cardiovascular disease and 10-year all-cause mortality.
RESULTS
Among 1,518,028 participants (54.1% of whom were women) with a median age of 54.4 years, regional variations in the prevalence of the five modifiable risk factors were noted. Incident cardiovascular disease occurred in 80,596 participants during a median follow-up of 7.3 years (maximum, 47.3), and 177,369 participants died during a median follow-up of 8.7 years (maximum, 47.6). For all five risk factors combined, the aggregate global population-attributable fraction of the 10-year incidence of cardiovascular disease was 57.2% (95% confidence interval [CI], 52.4 to 62.1) among women and 52.6% (95% CI, 49.0 to 56.1) among men, and the corresponding values for 10-year all-cause mortality were 22.2% (95% CI, 16.8 to 27.5) and 19.1% (95% CI, 14.6 to 23.6).
CONCLUSIONS
Harmonized individual-level data from a global cohort showed that 57.2% and 52.6% of cases of incident cardiovascular disease among women and men, respectively, and 22.2% and 19.1% of deaths from any cause among women and men, respectively, may be attributable to five modifiable risk factors. (Funded by the German Center for Cardiovascular Research (DZHK); ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT05466825.).
Topics: Female; Humans; Male; Middle Aged; Cardiovascular Diseases; Diabetes Mellitus; Risk Factors; Smoking; Heart Disease Risk Factors; Internationality
PubMed: 37632466
DOI: 10.1056/NEJMoa2206916 -
Reviews in Endocrine & Metabolic... Oct 2023Obesity epidemic reached the dimensions of a real global health crisis with more than one billion people worldwide living with obesity. Multiple obesity-related... (Review)
Review
Obesity epidemic reached the dimensions of a real global health crisis with more than one billion people worldwide living with obesity. Multiple obesity-related mechanisms cause structural, functional, humoral, and hemodynamic alterations with cardiovascular (CV) deleterious effects. A correct assessment of the cardiovascular risk in people with obesity is critical for reducing mortality and preserving quality of life. The correct identification of the obesity status remains difficult as recent evidence suggest that different phenotypes of obesity exist, each one associated with different degrees of CV risk. Diagnosis of obesity cannot depend only on anthropometric parameters but should include a precise assessment of the metabolic status. Recently, the World Heart Federation and World Obesity Federation provided an action plan for management of obesity-related CV risk and mortality, stressing for the instauration of comprehensive structured programs encompassing multidisciplinary teams. In this review we aim at providing an updated summary regarding the different obesity phenotypes, their specific effects on CV risk and differences in clinical management.
Topics: Humans; Quality of Life; Cardiovascular Diseases; Risk Factors; Obesity; Phenotype; Heart Disease Risk Factors
PubMed: 37358728
DOI: 10.1007/s11154-023-09813-5 -
Circulation Dec 2023Cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic (CKM) syndrome is a novel construct recently defined by the American Heart Association in response to the high prevalence of metabolic... (Review)
Review
Novel Prediction Equations for Absolute Risk Assessment of Total Cardiovascular Disease Incorporating Cardiovascular-Kidney-Metabolic Health: A Scientific Statement From the American Heart Association.
Cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic (CKM) syndrome is a novel construct recently defined by the American Heart Association in response to the high prevalence of metabolic and kidney disease. Epidemiological data demonstrate higher absolute risk of both atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD) and heart failure as an individual progresses from CKM stage 0 to stage 3, but optimal strategies for risk assessment need to be refined. Absolute risk assessment with the goal to match type and intensity of interventions with predicted risk and expected treatment benefit remains the cornerstone of primary prevention. Given the growing number of therapies in our armamentarium that simultaneously address all 3 CKM axes, novel risk prediction equations are needed that incorporate predictors and outcomes relevant to the CKM context. This should also include social determinants of health, which are key upstream drivers of CVD, to more equitably estimate and address risk. This scientific statement summarizes the background, rationale, and clinical implications for the newly developed sex-specific, race-free risk equations: PREVENT (AHA Predicting Risk of CVD Events). The PREVENT equations enable 10- and 30-year risk estimates for total CVD (composite of atherosclerotic CVD and heart failure), include estimated glomerular filtration rate as a predictor, and adjust for competing risk of non-CVD death among adults 30 to 79 years of age. Additional models accommodate enhanced predictive utility with the addition of CKM factors when clinically indicated for measurement (urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio and hemoglobin A1c) or social determinants of health (social deprivation index) when available. Approaches to implement risk-based prevention using PREVENT across various settings are discussed.
Topics: Male; Adult; Female; United States; Humans; Cardiovascular Diseases; American Heart Association; Risk Assessment; Heart Failure; Atherosclerosis; Kidney; Risk Factors
PubMed: 37947094
DOI: 10.1161/CIR.0000000000001191 -
Neurology Jul 2023Ischemic stroke (IS), 1 of the 2 main subtypes of stroke, occurs because of brain ischemia caused by thrombosis of a cerebral blood vessel. IS is one of the most...
BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES
Ischemic stroke (IS), 1 of the 2 main subtypes of stroke, occurs because of brain ischemia caused by thrombosis of a cerebral blood vessel. IS is one of the most important neurovascular causes of death and disability. It is affected by many risk factors, such as smoking and a high body mass index (BMI), which are also critical in the preventive control of other cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases. However, there are still few systematic analyses of the current and predicted disease burden and the attributable risk factors of IS.
METHODS
Based on the Global Burden of Disease 2019 database, we used age-standardized mortality rate and disability-adjusted life year to systematically present the geographical distribution and trends of IS disease burden worldwide from 1990 to 2019 by calculating the estimated annual percentage change and to analyze and predict the death number of IS accounted by 7 major risk factors for 2020-2030.
RESULTS
Between 1990 and 2019, the global number of IS deaths increased from 2.04 million to 3.29 million and is expected to increase further to 4.90 million by 2030. The downward trend was more pronounced in women, young people, and high sociodemographic index (SDI) regions. At the same time, a study of attributable risk factors of IS found that 2 behavioral factors, smoking and diet in high sodium, and 5 metabolic factors, including high systolic blood pressure, high low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, kidney dysfunction, high fasting plasma glucose, and a high BMI, are major contributors to the increased disease burden of IS now and in the future.
DISCUSSION
Our study provides the first comprehensive summary for the past 30 years and the prediction of the global burden of IS and its attributable risk factors until 2030, providing detailed statistics for decision-making on the prevention and control of IS globally. An inadequate control of the 7 risk factors would lead to an increased disease burden of IS in young people, especially in low SDI regions. Our study identifies high-risk populations and helps public health professionals develop targeted preventive strategies to reduce the global disease burden of IS.
Topics: Humans; Female; Adolescent; Ischemic Stroke; Quality-Adjusted Life Years; Risk Factors; Risk Assessment; Smoking; Global Health
PubMed: 37197995
DOI: 10.1212/WNL.0000000000207387 -
Endocrine Reviews Mar 2024Chronic complications of diabetes are due to myriad disorders of numerous metabolic pathways that are responsible for most of the morbidity and mortality associated with... (Review)
Review
Chronic complications of diabetes are due to myriad disorders of numerous metabolic pathways that are responsible for most of the morbidity and mortality associated with the disease. Traditionally, diabetes complications are divided into those of microvascular and macrovascular origin. We suggest revising this antiquated classification into diabetes complications of vascular, parenchymal, and hybrid (both vascular and parenchymal) tissue origin, since the profile of diabetes complications ranges from those involving only vascular tissues to those involving mostly parenchymal organs. A major paradigm shift has occurred in recent years regarding the pathogenesis of diabetes complications, in which the focus has shifted from studies on risks to those on the interplay between risk and protective factors. While risk factors are clearly important for the development of chronic complications in diabetes, recent studies have established that protective factors are equally significant in modulating the development and severity of diabetes complications. These protective responses may help explain the differential severity of complications, and even the lack of pathologies, in some tissues. Nevertheless, despite the growing number of studies on this field, comprehensive reviews on protective factors and their mechanisms of action are not available. This review thus focused on the clinical, biochemical, and molecular mechanisms that support the idea of endogenous protective factors, and their roles in the initiation and progression of chronic complications in diabetes. In addition, this review also aimed to identify the main needs of this field for future studies.
Topics: Humans; Protective Factors; Diabetic Angiopathies; Diabetes Mellitus; Risk Factors; Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2
PubMed: 37638875
DOI: 10.1210/endrev/bnad030 -
European Heart Journal Jun 2023Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is widely prevalent and independently increases cardiovascular risk. Cardiovascular risk prediction tools derived in the general population...
AIMS
Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is widely prevalent and independently increases cardiovascular risk. Cardiovascular risk prediction tools derived in the general population perform poorly in CKD. Through large-scale proteomics discovery, this study aimed to create more accurate cardiovascular risk models.
METHODS AND RESULTS
Elastic net regression was used to derive a proteomic risk model for incident cardiovascular risk in 2182 participants from the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort. The model was then validated in 485 participants from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities cohort. All participants had CKD and no history of cardiovascular disease at study baseline when ∼5000 proteins were measured. The proteomic risk model, which consisted of 32 proteins, was superior to both the 2013 ACC/AHA Pooled Cohort Equation and a modified Pooled Cohort Equation that included estimated glomerular filtrate rate. The Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort internal validation set demonstrated annualized receiver operating characteristic area under the curve values from 1 to 10 years ranging between 0.84 and 0.89 for the protein and 0.70 and 0.73 for the clinical models. Similar findings were observed in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities validation cohort. For nearly half of the individual proteins independently associated with cardiovascular risk, Mendelian randomization suggested a causal link to cardiovascular events or risk factors. Pathway analyses revealed enrichment of proteins involved in immunologic function, vascular and neuronal development, and hepatic fibrosis.
CONCLUSION
In two sizeable populations with CKD, a proteomic risk model for incident cardiovascular disease surpassed clinical risk models recommended in clinical practice, even after including estimated glomerular filtration rate. New biological insights may prioritize the development of therapeutic strategies for cardiovascular risk reduction in the CKD population.
Topics: Humans; Cardiovascular Diseases; Risk Factors; Proteomics; Renal Insufficiency, Chronic; Risk Assessment; Atherosclerosis; Glomerular Filtration Rate; Heart Disease Risk Factors
PubMed: 37014015
DOI: 10.1093/eurheartj/ehad115 -
Nature Communications Nov 2023Developing a single-domain assay to identify individuals at high risk of future events is a priority for multi-disease and mortality prevention. By training a neural...
Developing a single-domain assay to identify individuals at high risk of future events is a priority for multi-disease and mortality prevention. By training a neural network, we developed a disease/mortality-specific proteomic risk score (ProRS) based on 1461 Olink plasma proteins measured in 52,006 UK Biobank participants. This integrative score markedly stratified the risk for 45 common conditions, including infectious, hematological, endocrine, psychiatric, neurological, sensory, circulatory, respiratory, digestive, cutaneous, musculoskeletal, and genitourinary diseases, cancers, and mortality. The discriminations witnessed high accuracies achieved by ProRS for 10 endpoints (e.g., cancer, dementia, and death), with C-indexes exceeding 0.80. Notably, ProRS produced much better or equivalent predictive performance than established clinical indicators for almost all endpoints. Incorporating clinical predictors with ProRS enhanced predictive power for most endpoints, but this combination only exhibited limited improvement when compared to ProRS alone. Some proteins, e.g., GDF15, exhibited important discriminative values for various diseases. We also showed that the good discriminative performance observed could be largely translated into practical clinical utility. Taken together, proteomic profiles may serve as a replacement for complex laboratory tests or clinical measures to refine the comprehensive risk assessments of multiple diseases and mortalities simultaneously. Our models were internally validated in the UK Biobank; thus, further independent external validations are necessary to confirm our findings before application in clinical settings.
Topics: Humans; Proteomics; Risk Factors; Risk Assessment; Neoplasms
PubMed: 38016990
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-43575-7 -
BMC Public Health Oct 2023Sedentary behaviour has become the new reference of living, which has paralleled the increase in the prevalence of multiple chronic diseases. Here, we highlight the...
Sedentary behaviour has become the new reference of living, which has paralleled the increase in the prevalence of multiple chronic diseases. Here, we highlight the evidence to date and propose specific topics of interest for the Collection at BMC Public Health, titled "Sedentary behaviour and disease risk".
Topics: Humans; Sedentary Behavior; Disease; Risk Factors
PubMed: 37858149
DOI: 10.1186/s12889-023-16867-2 -
Cell Reports. Medicine Jul 2023Direct diagnosis and accurate assessment of metabolic syndrome (MetS) allow for prompt clinical interventions. However, traditional diagnostic strategies overlook the...
Direct diagnosis and accurate assessment of metabolic syndrome (MetS) allow for prompt clinical interventions. However, traditional diagnostic strategies overlook the complex heterogeneity of MetS. Here, we perform metabolomic analysis in 13,554 participants from the natural cohort and identify 26 hub plasma metabolic fingerprints (PMFs) associated with MetS and its early identification (pre-MetS). By leveraging machine-learning algorithms, we develop robust diagnostic models for pre-MetS and MetS with convincing performance through independent validation. We utilize these PMFs to assess the relative contributions of the four major MetS risk factors in the general population, ranked as follows: hyperglycemia, hypertension, dyslipidemia, and obesity. Furthermore, we devise a personalized three-dimensional plasma metabolic risk (PMR) stratification, revealing three distinct risk patterns. In summary, our study offers effective screening tools for identifying pre-MetS and MetS patients in the general community, while defining the heterogeneous risk stratification of metabolic phenotypes in real-world settings.
Topics: Humans; Metabolic Syndrome; Risk Factors; Obesity; Hypertension; Risk Assessment
PubMed: 37467725
DOI: 10.1016/j.xcrm.2023.101109 -
Ugeskrift For Laeger Jan 2024Interstitial lung abnormalities (ILA) are incidentally observed specific CT findings in patients without clinical suspicion of interstitial lung disease (ILD). ILA with... (Review)
Review
Interstitial lung abnormalities (ILA) are incidentally observed specific CT findings in patients without clinical suspicion of interstitial lung disease (ILD). ILA with basal and peripheral predominance and features suggestive of fibrosis in more than 5% of any part of the lung should be referred for pulmonologist review. The strategy for monitoring as described in this review is based on clinical and radiological risk factors. ILA are associated with risk of progression to ILD and increased mortality. Early identification and assessment of risk factors for progression are essential to improve outcome.
Topics: Humans; Disease Progression; Lung Diseases, Interstitial; Lung; Risk Factors; Risk Assessment
PubMed: 38235774
DOI: 10.61409/V06230395