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CMAJ : Canadian Medical Association... May 2022Regular cancer surveillance is crucial for understanding where progress is being made and where more must be done. We sought to provide an overview of the expected...
BACKGROUND
Regular cancer surveillance is crucial for understanding where progress is being made and where more must be done. We sought to provide an overview of the expected burden of cancer in Canada in 2022.
METHODS
We obtained data on new cancer incidence from the National Cancer Incidence Reporting System (1984-1991) and Canadian Cancer Registry (1992-2018). Mortality data (1984-2019) were obtained from the Canadian Vital Statistics - Death Database. We projected cancer incidence and mortality counts and rates to 2022 for 22 cancer types by sex and province or territory. Rates were age standardized to the 2011 Canadian standard population.
RESULTS
An estimated 233 900 new cancer cases and 85 100 cancer deaths are expected in Canada in 2022. We expect the most commonly diagnosed cancers to be lung overall (30 000), breast in females (28 600) and prostate in males (24 600). We also expect lung cancer to be the leading cause of cancer death, accounting for 24.3% of all cancer deaths, followed by colorectal (11.0%), pancreatic (6.7%) and breast cancers (6.5%). Incidence and mortality rates are generally expected to be higher in the eastern provinces of Canada than the western provinces.
INTERPRETATION
Although overall cancer rates are declining, the number of cases and deaths continues to climb, owing to population growth and the aging population. The projected high burden of lung cancer indicates a need for increased tobacco control and improvements in early detection and treatment. Success in breast and colorectal cancer screening and treatment likely account for the continued decline in their burden. The limited progress in early detection and new treatments for pancreatic cancer explains why it is expected to be the third leading cause of cancer death in Canada.
Topics: Aged; Canada; Female; Forecasting; Humans; Incidence; Lung Neoplasms; Male; Registries
PubMed: 35500919
DOI: 10.1503/cmaj.212097 -
Annals of Physical and Rehabilitation... Mar 2022Adults with cerebral palsy (CP) in the United States die much earlier than those without CP, a health inequality likely shaped by causes of death. Existing research has...
BACKGROUND
Adults with cerebral palsy (CP) in the United States die much earlier than those without CP, a health inequality likely shaped by causes of death. Existing research has not considered demographic differences in mortality patterns.
OBJECTIVES
To analyze differences in cause of death for adults who did/did not have CP reported on their death certificates and to assess sex and racial-ethnic difference in causes of death among adult decedents with CP.
METHODS
Data are from the 2013-2017 US Multiple Cause of Death Mortality files (N = 13,332,871; n = 13,897 with CP). Multiple logistic regression models were used to compare differences in causes of death between adults with and without CP and to determine sex and racial-ethnic differences in causes of death among adults with CP. Adjusted odds ratios (aORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated.
RESULTS
As compared with decedents without CP, those with CP were more likely to die from pneumonitis (aOR 31.14, 95% CI 29.42-32.96), influenza/pneumonia (8.78, 8.30-9.29), respiratory failure (17.24, 15.19-18.69), and choking (20.66, 18.86-22.62) and less likely to die from heart disease (0.61, 0.58-0.65), cancer (0.12, 0.11-0.13), chronic lower respiratory diseases (0.50, 0.44-0.56), and cerebrovascular diseases (0.66, 0.59-0.75). Among adults with CP, female decedents were more likely than males to die from respiratory failure (1.21, 1.03-1.42), and non-Hispanic Black decedents were more likely than non-Hispanic White decedents to die from heart disease (1.24, 1.07-1.45) and cerebrovascular disease (1.77, 1.29-2.49).
CONCLUSIONS
In 2013-2017, heart disease was the leading cause of death for adults with and without CP. However, for people with compared to those without CP, likelihood of death from likely preventable respiratory causes of death was higher. Non-Hispanic Black adults were more likely than non-Hispanic White adults to die from heart and cerebrovascular diseases. Public health, clinical, and rehabilitation efforts must use a multifaceted approach to address respiratory and circulatory health among people with CP.
DATABASE
United States National Vital Statistics System of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Multiple Cause of Death Mortality files (National Bureau of Economic Research: https://www.nber.org/research/data/vital-statistics-mortality-data-nber).
Topics: Adult; Cause of Death; Cerebral Palsy; Cerebrovascular Disorders; Female; Health Status Disparities; Heart Diseases; Humans; Male; Respiratory Insufficiency; United States
PubMed: 34273570
DOI: 10.1016/j.rehab.2021.101553 -
Statistics in Medicine Jun 2022Civil registration vital statistics (CRVS) systems provide data on maternal mortality that can be used for monitoring trends and to inform policies and programs....
Estimating misclassification errors in the reporting of maternal mortality in national civil registration vital statistics systems: A Bayesian hierarchical bivariate random walk model to estimate sensitivity and specificity for multiple countries and years with missing data.
Civil registration vital statistics (CRVS) systems provide data on maternal mortality that can be used for monitoring trends and to inform policies and programs. However, CRVS maternal mortality data may be subject to substantial reporting errors due to misclassification of maternal deaths. Information on misclassification is available for selected countries and periods only. We developed a Bayesian hierarchical bivariate random walk model to estimate sensitivity and specificity for multiple populations and years and used the model to estimate misclassification errors in the reporting of maternal mortality in CRVS systems. The proposed Bayesian misclassification (BMis) model captures differences in sensitivity and specificity across populations and over time, allows for extrapolations to periods with missing data, and includes an exact likelihood function for data provided in aggregated form. Validation exercises using maternal mortality data suggest that BMis is reasonably well calibrated and improves upon the CRVS-adjustment approach used until 2018 by the UN Maternal Mortality Inter-Agency Group (UN-MMEIG) to account for bias in CRVS data resulting from misclassification error. Since 2019, BMis is used by the UN-MMEIG to account for misclassification errors when estimating maternal mortality using CRVS data.
Topics: Bayes Theorem; Bias; Humans; Maternal Mortality; Sensitivity and Specificity; Vital Statistics; Female
PubMed: 35165916
DOI: 10.1002/sim.9335 -
Emerging Infectious Diseases Jul 2024Accurate and timely mortality surveillance is crucial for elucidating risk factors, particularly for emerging diseases. We compared use of COVID-19 keywords on death...
Accurate and timely mortality surveillance is crucial for elucidating risk factors, particularly for emerging diseases. We compared use of COVID-19 keywords on death certificates alone to identify COVID-19 deaths in Minnesota, USA, during 2020-2022, with use of a standardized mortality definition incorporating additional clinical data. For analyses, we used likelihood ratio χ and median 1-way tests. Death certificates alone identified 96% of COVID-19 deaths confirmed by the standardized definition and an additional 3% of deaths that had been classified as non-COVID-19 deaths by the standardized definition. Agreement between methods was >90% for most groups except children, although agreement among adults varied by demographics and location at death. Overall median time from death to filing of death certificate was 3 days; decedent characteristics and whether autopsy was performed varied. Death certificates are an efficient and timely source of COVID-19 mortality data when paired with SARS-CoV-2 testing data.
Topics: Humans; COVID-19; Minnesota; Male; Middle Aged; Female; Death Certificates; Adult; Aged; Child; SARS-CoV-2; Adolescent; Child, Preschool; Young Adult; Infant; Aged, 80 and over; Cause of Death; Autopsy; COVID-19 Testing
PubMed: 38916546
DOI: 10.3201/eid3007.231522 -
BMC Public Health Nov 2022The number of women in Japan who continue working after childbirth is on the rise. Over the past few years, Japan's cancer mortality rate has increased. About 50% of all...
BACKGROUND
The number of women in Japan who continue working after childbirth is on the rise. Over the past few years, Japan's cancer mortality rate has increased. About 50% of all cancer deaths among Japanese women aged 25-64 are caused by lung, gastric, pancreatic and colorectal cancers. This study aims to examine the difference in mortality risk for key cancers among women and explore the effect of the economic crisis in the mid-1990s separately for occupational and industrial categories.
METHODS
Data from 1980 to 2015 were gathered from the Japanese Population Census and National Vital Statistics conducted in the same year. A Poisson regression analysis was used to estimate mortality risk and mortality trends for lung, gastric, pancreatic and colorectal cancer among Japanese working women aged 25-64 years.
RESULTS
Across most industrial and occupational groups, the trends in age-standardised cancer mortality rate for women have declined. Workers in management, security and transportation have a higher cancer mortality risk than sales workers. The risk of death from all four cancers is higher for workers in the mining and electricity industries than for wholesale and retail workers.
CONCLUSION
To improve the health and well-being of employed Japanese women, it is crucial to monitor cancer mortality trends. Using these population-level quantitative risk estimates, industry- and occupation-specific prevention programmes can be developed to target women at higher cancer risk and enable the early detection and treatment of cancer.
Topics: Female; Humans; Japan; Occupations; Industry; Risk Factors; Neoplasms; Mortality
PubMed: 36320013
DOI: 10.1186/s12889-022-14304-4 -
American Journal of Public Health Jul 2021To assess the quality of population-level US mortality data in the US Census Bureau Numerical Identification file (Numident) and describe the details of the mortality... (Comparative Study)
Comparative Study
OBJECTIVES
To assess the quality of population-level US mortality data in the US Census Bureau Numerical Identification file (Numident) and describe the details of the mortality information as well as the novel person-level linkages available when using the Census Numident.
METHODS
We compared all-cause mortality in the Census Numident to published vital statistics from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. We provide detailed information on the linkage of the Census Numident to other Census Bureau survey, administrative, and economic data.
RESULTS
Death counts in the Census Numident are similar to those from published mortality vital statistics. Yearly comparisons show that the Census Numident captures more deaths since 1997, and coverage is slightly lower going back in time. Weekly estimates show similar trends from both data sets.
CONCLUSIONS
The Census Numident is a high-quality and timely source of data to study all-cause mortality. The Census Bureau makes available a vast and rich set of restricted-use, individual-level data linked to the Census Numident for researchers to use.
PUBLIC HEALTH IMPLICATIONS
The Census Numident linked to data available from the Census Bureau provides infrastructure for doing evidence-based public health policy research on mortality.
Topics: Cause of Death; Censuses; Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, U.S.; Data Collection; Forecasting; Humans; Mortality; United States; Vital Statistics
PubMed: 34314212
DOI: 10.2105/AJPH.2021.306217 -
BMC Pregnancy and Childbirth Nov 2023To quantify the extent of incompleteness and misclassification of maternal and pregnancy related deaths, and to identify general and context-specific factors associated... (Meta-Analysis)
Meta-Analysis
OBJECTIVE
To quantify the extent of incompleteness and misclassification of maternal and pregnancy related deaths, and to identify general and context-specific factors associated with incompleteness and/or misclassification of maternal death data.
METHODS
We conducted a systematic review of incompleteness and/or misclassification of maternal and pregnancy-related deaths. We conducted a narrative synthesis to identify methods used to capture and classify maternal deaths, as well as general and context specific factors affecting the completeness and misclassification of maternal death recording. We conducted a meta-analysis of proportions to obtain estimates of incompleteness and misclassification of maternal death recording, overall and disaggregated by income and surveillance system types.
FINDINGS
Of 2872 title-abstracts identified, 29 were eligible for inclusions in the qualitative synthesis, and 20 in the meta-analysis. Included studies relied principally on record linkage and review for identifying deaths, and on review of medical records and verbal autopsies to correctly classify cause of death. Deaths to women towards the extremes of the reproductive age range, those not classified by a medical examiner or a coroner, and those from minority ethnic groups in their setting were more likely misclassified or unrecorded. In the meta-analysis, we found maternal death recording to be incomplete by 34% (95% CI: 28-48), with 60% sensitivity (95% CI: 31-81.). Overall, we found maternal mortality was under-estimated by 39% (95% CI: 30-48) due to incompleteness and/or misclassification. Reporting of deaths away from the intrapartum, due to indirect causes or occurring at home were less complete than their counterparts. There was substantial between and within group variability across most results.
CONCLUSION
Maternal deaths were under-estimated in almost all contexts, but the extent varied across settings. Countries should aim towards establishing Civil Registration and Vital Statistics systems where they are not instituted. Efforts to improve the completeness and accuracy of maternal cause of death recording, such as Confidential Enquiries into Maternal Deaths, are needed even where CRVS is considered to be well-functioning.
Topics: Pregnancy; Humans; Female; Maternal Death; Maternal Mortality; Reproduction; Family; Ethnicity; Cause of Death
PubMed: 37968585
DOI: 10.1186/s12884-023-06077-4 -
Cancer Science May 2022In most high-resource countries with organized screening programs, the incidence and mortality of cervical cancer is decreasing. Recent statistics have also revealed a...
In most high-resource countries with organized screening programs, the incidence and mortality of cervical cancer is decreasing. Recent statistics have also revealed a reduction in invasive cervical cancer incidence as a result of national vaccination programs. Paradoxically, cervical cancer incidence has increased in Japan, particularly amongst women of reproductive age. This study aimed to examine the trends in cervical cancer incidence and mortality for young and middle adult women in Japan, by analyzing trends in 10-year interval age-groups. Cervical cancer incidence for young and middle adult women (ages 20-59 years) was obtained from high-quality population-based cancer registries in three prefectures from 1985 to 2015. National cancer mortality data were obtained from published vital statistics from 1985 to 2019. Trends in crude and age-standardized rates (ASR) were analyzed using Joinpoint regression. The cervical cancer incidence trend in 20-59-year-old women combined significantly increased over the observation period. Both crude and ASR increased from 1985 to 2015 with an annual percent change (APC) of +1.6% (95% confidence interval, 1.1, 2.1) and +1.7% (1.2, 2.3), respectively. Similar increases were seen in ages 20-29, 30-39, and 40-49 years with higher APCs especially in 20s and 30s. Both crude and ASR mortality significantly increased after the early 1990s in ages 20-59 years combined. Based on the recognition that current cervical cancer control strategies in Japan have not been effective in reducing the cervical cancer burden in young and middle adults, promotion of screening and vaccination should be urgently strengthened.
Topics: Adult; Female; Humans; Incidence; Japan; Middle Aged; Registries; Uterine Cervical Neoplasms; Vaccination; Young Adult
PubMed: 35253327
DOI: 10.1111/cas.15320 -
Drug and Alcohol Dependence Jan 2023Kentucky has one of the highest opioid overdose mortality rates in the United States. Accurate estimates of people with opioid use disorder (OUD) are critical to plan...
BACKGROUND
Kentucky has one of the highest opioid overdose mortality rates in the United States. Accurate estimates of people with opioid use disorder (OUD) are critical to plan for the scope of interventions required to reduce overdose and opioid misuse. Commonly used household surveys are known to underestimate OUD at the state-level and do not provide county-level estimates.
METHODS
We performed a multi-sample capture-recapture analysis to estimate OUD prevalence in Kentucky in 2018 and 2019. We utilized four statewide datasets that were linked at the individual level: 1) Registry of Vital Statistics, 2) Emergency Medical Services (EMS), 3) Kentucky's Prescription Drug Monitoring Program (PDMP), and 4) Kentucky Medicaid. We included persons aged 18-64 years who resided in Kentucky between 2018 and 2019. We identified individuals with administrative data consistent with OUD in each of the datasets, including a fatal opioid-involved overdose (Vital Statistics), EMS runs for suspected opioid overdose, receipt of buprenorphine for OUD treatment (PDMP), or Medicaid claims for OUD. Observed and estimated counts of OUD cases and prevalence of OUD among the adult population in Kentucky.
RESULTS
The estimated statewide OUD prevalence was 5.5 % and 5.9 % for 2018 and 2019, respectively, ranging from 1.3 % to 17.7 % across Kentucky counties. As expected, counties with the highest OUD rates were Appalachian counties (eastern area) of the state.
CONCLUSIONS
Our analysis reveals a substantially larger proportion of KY residents have OUD than previously estimated. Our approach offers a model for states needing county-level estimates of OUD.
Topics: Adult; Humans; United States; Kentucky; Prevalence; Opiate Overdose; Opioid-Related Disorders; Analgesics, Opioid; Drug Overdose
PubMed: 36469995
DOI: 10.1016/j.drugalcdep.2022.109710 -
European Journal of Clinical... Apr 2022Pasteurella species are infrequent but potentially severe causes of bloodstream infection (BSI). The objective of this study was to determine the incidence, risk...
Pasteurella species are infrequent but potentially severe causes of bloodstream infection (BSI). The objective of this study was to determine the incidence, risk factors, and outcomes of Pasteurella species BSI in a large Australian population. Retrospective, laboratory-based surveillance was conducted in Queensland, Australia (population ≈ 5 million) during 2000-2019, and clinical and outcome information was established by linkage to state hospital admissions and vital statistics databases. During more than 86 million person-years of surveillance, 272 incident Pasteurella species BSI occurred for an overall age- and sex-standardized annual incidence of 3.3 per million residents. The incidence of Pasteurella species BSI was highest in recent years and older individuals were at greatest risk. The median (interquartile range) Charlson Comorbidity Index was 2 (0-4) with scores of zero, 1, 2, and 3 + observed in 81 (30%), 37 (14%), 44 (16%), and 110 (40%) of cases. The 30-day all-cause case fatality was 9% (24/272) and patients who died had more comorbidities and were less likely to have community-associated disease. Although Pasteurella species are infrequent causes of BSI, older individuals and those with comorbidities are at highest risk. The burden of this disease may be expected to increase with an aging and more comorbid population.
Topics: Australia; Bacteremia; Cross Infection; Humans; Incidence; Pasteurella; Queensland; Retrospective Studies; Sepsis
PubMed: 35102471
DOI: 10.1007/s10096-022-04411-w