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International Journal of Medical... Dec 2023Medication prescription is a complex process that could benefit from current research and development in machine learning through decision support systems. Particularly... (Review)
Review
BACKGROUND
Medication prescription is a complex process that could benefit from current research and development in machine learning through decision support systems. Particularly pediatricians are forced to prescribe medications "off-label" as children are still underrepresented in clinical studies, which leads to a high risk of an incorrect dose and adverse drug effects.
METHODS
PubMed, IEEE Xplore and PROSPERO were searched for relevant studies that developed and evaluated well-performing machine learning algorithms following the PRISMA statement. Quality assessment was conducted in accordance with the IJMEDI checklist. Identified studies were reviewed in detail, including the required variables for predicting the correct dose, especially of pediatric medication prescription.
RESULTS
The search identified 656 studies, of which 64 were reviewed in detail and 36 met the inclusion criteria. According to the IJMEDI checklist, five studies were considered to be of high quality. 19 of the 36 studies dealt with the active substance warfarin. Overall, machine learning algorithms based on decision trees or regression methods performed superior regarding their predictive power than algorithms based on neural networks, support vector machines or other methods. The use of ensemble methods like bagging or boosting generally enhanced the accuracy of the dose predictions. The required input and output variables of the algorithms were considerably heterogeneous and differ strongly among the respective substance.
CONCLUSIONS
By using machine learning algorithms, the prescription process could be simplified and dosing correctness could be enhanced. Despite the heterogenous results among the different substances and cases and the lack of pediatric use cases, the identified approaches and required variables can serve as an excellent starting point for further development of algorithms predicting drug doses, particularly for children. Especially the combination of physiologically-based pharmacokinetic models with machine learning algorithms represents a great opportunity to enhance the predictive power and accuracy of the developed algorithms.
Topics: Humans; Child; Algorithms; Neural Networks, Computer; Machine Learning; Prescriptions
PubMed: 37939541
DOI: 10.1016/j.ijmedinf.2023.105241 -
The Cochrane Database of Systematic... Aug 2021There is presently no certainty about the ideal feeding intervals for preterm infants. Shorter feeding intervals of, for example, two hours, have the theoretical... (Meta-Analysis)
Meta-Analysis Review
BACKGROUND
There is presently no certainty about the ideal feeding intervals for preterm infants. Shorter feeding intervals of, for example, two hours, have the theoretical advantage of allowing smaller volumes of milk. This may have the potential to reduce the incidence and severity of gastro-oesophageal reflux. Longer feeding intervals have the theoretical advantage of allowing more gastric emptying between two feeds. This potentially provides periods of rest (and thus less hyperaemia) for an immature digestive tract.
OBJECTIVES
To determine the safety of shorter feeding intervals (two hours or shorter) versus longer feeding intervals (three hours or more) and to compare the effects in terms of days taken to regain birth weight and to achieve full feeding.
SEARCH METHODS
We used the standard search strategy of Cochrane Neonatal to run comprehensive searches in CENTRAL (2020, Issue 6) and Ovid MEDLINE and Epub Ahead of Print, In-Process & Other Non-Indexed Citations, Daily and Versions, and CINAHL on 25 June 2020. We searched clinical trials databases and the reference lists of retrieved articles for randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and quasi-RCTs.
SELECTION CRITERIA
We included RCTs and quasi-RCTs comparing short (e.g. one or two hours) versus long (e.g. three or four hours) feeding intervals in preterm infants of any birth weight, all or most of whom were less than 32 weeks' gestation. Infants could be of any postnatal age at trial entry, but eligible infants should not have received feeds before study entry, with the exception of minimal enteral feeding. We included studies of nasogastric or orogastric bolus feeding, breast milk or formula, in which the feeding interval is the intervention.
DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS
We used standard methodological procedures expected by Cochrane. We used the GRADE approach to assess the certainty of evidence. Our primary outcomes were days taken to achieve full enteral feeding and days to regain birth weight. Our other outcomes were duration of hospital stay, episodes of necrotising enterocolitis (NEC) and growth during hospital stay (weight, length and head circumference).
MAIN RESULTS
We included four RCTs, involving 417 infants in the review. One study involving 350 infants is awaiting classification. All studies compared two-hourly versus three-hourly feeding interval. The risk of bias of the included studies was generally low, but all studies had high risk of performance bias due to lack of blinding of the intervention. Three studies were included in meta-analysis for the number of days taken to achieve full enteral feeding (351 participants). The mean days to achieve full feeds was between eight and 11 days. There was little or no difference in days taken to achieve full enteral feeding between two-hourly and three-hourly feeding, but this finding was of low certainty (mean difference (MD) ‒0.62, 95% confidence interval (CI) ‒1.60 to 0.36). There was low-certainty evidence that the days taken to regain birth weight may be slightly longer in infants receiving two-hourly feeding than in those receiving three-hourly feeding (MD 1.15, 95% CI 0.11 to 2.20; 3 studies, 350 participants). We are uncertain whether shorter feeding intervals have any effect on any of our secondary outcomes including the duration of hospital stay (MD ‒3.36, 95% CI ‒9.18 to 2.46; 2 studies, 207 participants; very low-certainty evidence) and the risk of NEC (typical risk ratio 1.07, 95% CI 0.54 to 2.11; 4 studies, 417 participants; low-certainty evidence). No study reported growth during hospital stay.
AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS
The low-certainty evidence we found in this review suggests that there may be no clinically important differences between two- and three-hourly feeding intervals. There is insufficient information about potential feeding complications and in particular NEC. No studies have looked at the effect of other feeding intervals and there is no long-term data on neurodevelopment or growth.
Topics: Birth Weight; Enteral Nutrition; Enterocolitis, Necrotizing; Humans; Infant; Infant Formula; Infant, Newborn; Infant, Premature; Infant, Very Low Birth Weight; Milk, Human; Time Factors; Treatment Outcome; Weight Gain
PubMed: 34415568
DOI: 10.1002/14651858.CD012322.pub2 -
The Cochrane Database of Systematic... Jan 2023Postoperative pain clinical management in neonates has always been a challenging medical issue. Worldwide, several systemic opioid regimens are available for... (Meta-Analysis)
Meta-Analysis Review
BACKGROUND
Postoperative pain clinical management in neonates has always been a challenging medical issue. Worldwide, several systemic opioid regimens are available for pediatricians, neonatologists, and general practitioners to control pain in neonates undergoing surgical procedures. However, the most effective and safe regimen is still unknown in the current body of literature.
OBJECTIVES
To determine the effects of different regimens of systemic opioid analgesics in neonates submitted to surgery on all-cause mortality, pain, and significant neurodevelopmental disability. Potentially assessed regimens might include: different doses of the same opioid, different routes of administration of the same opioid, continuous infusion versus bolus administration, or 'as needed' administration versus 'as scheduled' administration.
SEARCH METHODS
Searches were conducted in June 2022 using the following databases: Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials [CENTRAL], PubMed, and CINAHL. Trial registration records were identified via CENTRAL and an independent search of the ISRCTN registry.
SELECTION CRITERIA
We included randomized controlled trials (RCTs), quasi-randomized, cluster-randomized, and cross-over controlled trials evaluating systemic opioid regimens' effects on postoperative pain in neonates (pre-term or full-term). We considered suitable for inclusion: I) studies evaluating different doses of the same opioid; 2) studies evaluating different routes of administration of the same opioid; 3) studies evaluating the effectiveness of continuous infusion versus bolus infusion; and 4) studies establishing an assessment of an 'as needed' administration versus 'as scheduled' administration.
DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS
According to Cochrane methods, two investigators independently screened retrieved records, extracted data, and appraised the risk of bias. We stratified meta-analysis by the type of intervention: studies evaluating the use of opioids for postoperative pain in neonates through continuous infusion versus bolus infusion and studies assessing the 'as needed' administration versus 'as scheduled' administration. We used the fixed-effect model with risk ratio (RR) for dichotomous data and mean difference (MD), standardized mean difference (SMD), median, and interquartile range (IQR) for continuous data. Finally, we used the GRADEpro approach for primary outcomes to evaluate the quality of the evidence across included studies.
MAIN RESULTS
In this review, we included seven randomized controlled clinical trials (504 infants) from 1996 to 2020. We identified no studies comparing different doses of the same opioid, or different routes. The administration of continuous opioid infusion versus bolus administration of opioids was evaluated in six studies, while one study compared 'as needed' versus 'as scheduled' administration of morphine given by parents or nurses. Overall, the effectiveness of continuous infusion of opioids over bolus infusion as measured by the visual analog scale (MD 0.00, 95% confidence interval (CI) -0.23 to 0.23; 133 participants, 2 studies; I² = 0); or using the COMFORT scale (MD -0.07, 95% CI -0.89 to 0.75; 133 participants, 2 studies; I² = 0), remains unclear due to study designs' limitations, such as the unclear risk of attrition, reporting bias, and imprecision among reported results (very low certainty of the evidence). None of the included studies reported data on other clinically important outcomes such as all-cause mortality rate during hospitalization, major neurodevelopmental disability, the incidence of severe retinopathy of prematurity or intraventricular hemorrhage, and cognitive- and educational-related outcomes. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: Limited evidence is available on continuous infusion compared to intermittent boluses of systemic opioids. We are uncertain whether continuous opioid infusion reduces pain compared with intermittent opioid boluses; none of the studies reported the other primary outcomes of this review, i.e. all-cause mortality during initial hospitalization, significant neurodevelopmental disability, or cognitive and educational outcomes among children older than five years old. Only one small study reported on morphine infusion with parent- or nurse-controlled analgesia.
Topics: Humans; Infant, Newborn; Analgesia; Analgesics, Opioid; Clinical Protocols; Morphine; Pain, Postoperative
PubMed: 36645224
DOI: 10.1002/14651858.CD015016.pub2 -
Children (Basel, Switzerland) Feb 2023The objective of this review is to assess and synthesize the role of the maternal and child health (MCH) handbook on improving healthcare service utilization, behavior... (Review)
Review
The objective of this review is to assess and synthesize the role of the maternal and child health (MCH) handbook on improving healthcare service utilization, behavior change, and health outcomes for women and children. A systematic search of all relevant existing reports was conducted on 14 January 2021, using the following online bibliographic databases: PubMed, EMBASE, MEDLINE, The Cochrane Library, Academic Search Premier, Emcare, APA PsycINFO, and Web of Science. Two reviewers independently performed study selection, data extraction, and quality assessment. We included 7 trials from 1430 articles, and a total of 2643 women. As overall risk of bias assessment, most domains of the Cochrane risk-of-bias assessment tool showed a high or unclear risk of bias. The risk of ≥6 antenatal care (ANC) visits was 19% higher (RR 1.19, 95% CI 1.09 to 1.30, I2 = 47%, 2 studies, 955 women, moderate certainty of evidence) and skilled birth attendants during delivery was 13% higher (RR 1.13, 95% CI 1.04 to 1.24, I2 = 0%, 2 studies, 1094 women, low certainty of the evidence) in the intervention group than in the control group. The MCH handbook can increase maternal health service utilization and early breastfeeding practice. It also leads to a sense of autonomy during ANC, better communication with healthcare providers, and support from family members.
PubMed: 36979993
DOI: 10.3390/children10030435 -
Iranian Journal of Public Health Oct 2020Considering that the obstetricians and pediatricians need to comprehensive information about the obstetric and neonatal effect of COVID-19, this review study was... (Review)
Review
BACKGROUND
Considering that the obstetricians and pediatricians need to comprehensive information about the obstetric and neonatal effect of COVID-19, this review study was conducted to investigate the impact of COVID-19 on obstetrics and neonatal outcomes.
METHODS
In this systematic review the international search databases following PubMed, Web of Science, Scopus, ProQuest and Embase and Google scholar were searched. All articles were reviewed by two independent researchers until 10 April 2020. After quality assessment of included studies the finding reported in 2 sections obstetrics and neonatal outcomes.
RESULTS
The sixteen studies with a sample size of 123 pregnant women with a definitive diagnosis of COVID-19 and their neonates were evaluated. The range of gestational age was 25-40 weeks. There was no death associated with COVID-19 in pregnant women. The obstetric outcomes in pregnant women with COVID-19 include decreased fetal movement, intrauterine fetal distress, anemia, PROM, preterm labor, Multiple Organ Dysfunction Syndrome (MODS) and etc. The most common delivery mode in women affect with COVID-19 was cesarean section. Expect for one case with MODS, in the majority of the studies reviewed, no severe morbidity or mortality occurred. The neonatal outcomes were stillbirth, prematurity, asphyxia, fetal distress, low birth weight, small for gestational age, large for gestational age, multiple organ dysfunction syndrome, disseminated intravascular coagulation and neonatal death. In addition, five neonates born to mothers with COVID-19 were positive for SARS-CoV-2. However, the studies report these outcomes but the exact causes of theme are not known.
CONCLUSION
In this systematic review, we summarize the diverse results of studies about the obstetrics and neonatal outcomes following COVID-19. This infection may cause negative outcomes in both mothers and neonates. However, there were evidence about neonate infected with COVID-19, but there is controversial information about the vertical transmission of COVID-19.
PubMed: 34268204
DOI: 10.18502/ijph.v49iS1.3668 -
International Journal of Environmental... Nov 2021Fever is a common symptom in children that nurses and pediatricians treat. Although it is a common sign in clinical practice, fever instills irrational fears in parents... (Meta-Analysis)
Meta-Analysis Review
CONTEXT
Fever is a common symptom in children that nurses and pediatricians treat. Although it is a common sign in clinical practice, fever instills irrational fears in parents that health professionals share.
OBJECTIVE
To investigate whether doctors' and nurses' knowledge, perceptions, and attitudes toward fever influence how this sign is managed. Furthermore, it intends to evaluate whether educational programs increase knowledge and change attitudes and/or perceptions of nurses about children's fever.
DATA SOURCES
A systematic review with meta-analysis was conducted with PRISMA international standards and the Cochrane recommendations.
STUDY SELECTION
Articles examining health professionals' (doctors and/or nurses) knowledge, perceptions, and/or attitudes toward fever in children and the use of antipyretics were selected for the study.
DATA EXTRACTION
The qualitative analysis was carried out by classifying the articles according to the applied educational programs for nurses related to fever care for children that evaluated different outcomes to determine their efficacies.
RESULTS
For the qualitative synthesis, 41 articles were included, and 5 of these were taken in meta-analysis, which measured the effectiveness of educational programs for fever management in nurses.
LIMITATIONS
All of the included studies generally had a high risk of bias.
CONCLUSION
According to the evidence reviewed, nurses' and physicians' perceptions and attitudes regarding fever management in children indicate an overtreatment of this sign. We can give a recommendation grade of D on the use of educational programs to modify attitudes, perceptions, and knowledge about fever in children and improve clinical practice in nurses.
Topics: Attitude of Health Personnel; Child; Clinical Competence; Fever; Health Knowledge, Attitudes, Practice; Humans; Overtreatment; Physicians
PubMed: 34886174
DOI: 10.3390/ijerph182312444 -
The Cochrane Database of Systematic... Jun 2023Jellyfish envenomation is common in many coastal regions and varies in severity depending upon the species. Stings cause a variety of symptoms and signs including pain,... (Review)
Review
BACKGROUND
Jellyfish envenomation is common in many coastal regions and varies in severity depending upon the species. Stings cause a variety of symptoms and signs including pain, dermatological reactions, and, in some species, Irukandji syndrome (which may include abdominal/back/chest pain, tachycardia, hypertension, cardiac phenomena, and, rarely, death). Many treatments have been suggested for these symptoms, but their effectiveness is unclear. This is an update of a Cochrane Review last published in 2013.
OBJECTIVES
To determine the benefits and harms associated with the use of any intervention, in both adults and children, for the treatment of jellyfish stings, as assessed by randomised and quasi-randomised trials.
SEARCH METHODS
We searched CENTRAL, MEDLINE, Embase, and Web of Science up to 27 October 2022. We searched clinical trials registers and the grey literature, and conducted forward-citation searching of relevant articles. SELECTION CRITERIA: We included randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and quasi-RCTs of any intervention given to treat stings from any species of jellyfish stings. Interventions were compared to another active intervention, placebo, or no treatment. If co-interventions were used, we included the study only if the co-intervention was used in each group. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: We used standard methodological procedures expected by Cochrane. MAIN RESULTS: We included nine studies (six RCTs and three quasi-RCTs) involving a total of 574 participants. We found one ongoing study. Participants were either stung accidentally, or were healthy volunteers exposed to stings in a laboratory setting. Type of jellyfish could not be confirmed in beach settings and was determined by investigators using participant and local information. We categorised interventions into comparison groups: hot versus cold applications; topical applications. A third comparison of parenteral administration included no relevant outcome data: a single study (39 participants) evaluated intravenous magnesium sulfate after stings from jellyfish that cause Irukandji syndrome (Carukia). No studies assessed a fourth comparison group of pressure immobilisation bandages. We downgraded the certainty of the evidence due to very serious risk of bias, serious and very serious imprecision, and serious inconsistency in some results. Application of heat versus application of cold Four studies involved accidental stings treated on the beach or in hospital. Jellyfish were described as bluebottles (Physalia; location: Australia), and box jellyfish that do not cause Irukandji syndrome (Hawaiian box jellyfish (Carybdea alata) and major box jellyfish (Chironex fleckeri, location: Australia)). Treatments were applied with hot packs or hot water (showers, baths, buckets, or hoses), or ice packs or cold packs. The evidence for all outcomes was of very low certainty, thus we are unsure whether heat compared to cold leads to at least a clinically significant reduction in pain within six hours of stings from Physalia (risk ratio (RR) 2.25, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.42 to 3.56; 2 studies, 142 participants) or Carybdea alata and Chironex fleckeri (RR 1.66, 95% CI 0.56 to 4.94; 2 studies, 71 participants). We are unsure whether there is a difference in adverse events due to treatment (RR 0.50, 95% CI 0.05 to 5.19; 2 studies, 142 participants); these were minor adverse events reported for Physalia stings. We are also unsure whether either treatment leads to a clinically significant reduction in pain in the first hour (Physalia: RR 2.66, 95% CI 1.71 to 4.15; 1 study, 88 participants; Carybdea alata and Chironex fleckeri: RR 1.16, 95% CI 0.71 to 1.89; 1 study, 42 participants) or cessation of pain at the end of treatment (Physalia: RR 1.63, 95% CI 0.81 to 3.27; 1 study, 54 participants; Carybdea alata and Chironex fleckeri: RR 3.54, 95% CI 0.82 to 15.31; 1 study, 29 participants). Evidence for retreatment with the same intervention was only available for Physalia, with similar uncertain findings (RR 0.19, 95% CI 0.01 to 3.90; 1 study, 96 participants), as was the case for retreatment with the alternative hot or cold application after Physalia (RR 1.00, 95% CI 0.55 to 1.82; 1 study, 54 participants) and Chironex fleckeri stings (RR 0.48, 95% CI 0.02 to 11.17; 1 study, 42 participants). Evidence for dermatological signs (itchiness or rash) was available only at 24 hours for Physalia stings (RR 1.02, 95% CI 0.63 to 1.65; 2 studies, 98 participants). Topical applications One study (62 participants) included accidental stings from Hawaiian box jellyfish (Carybdea alata) treated on the beach with fresh water, seawater, Sting Aid (a commercial product), or Adolph's (papain) meat tenderiser. In another study, healthy volunteers (97 participants) were stung with an Indonesian sea nettle (Chrysaora chinensis from Malaysia) in a laboratory setting and treated with isopropyl alcohol, ammonia, heated water, acetic acid, or sodium bicarbonate. Two other eligible studies (Carybdea alata and Physalia stings) did not measure the outcomes of this review. The evidence for all outcomes was of very low certainty, thus we could not be certain whether or not topical applications provided at least a clinically significant reduction in pain (1 study, 62 participants with Carybdea alata stings, reported only as cessation of pain). For adverse events due to treatment, one study (Chrysaora chinensis stings) withdrew ammonia as a treatment following a first-degree burn in one participant. No studies evaluated clinically significant reduction in pain, retreatment with the same or the alternative treatment, or dermatological signs.
AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS
Few studies contributed data to this review, and those that did contribute varied in types of treatment, settings, and range of jellyfish species. We are unsure of the effectiveness of any of the treatments evaluated in this review given the very low certainty of all the evidence. This updated review includes two new studies (with 139 additional participants). The findings are consistent with the previous review.
Topics: Adult; Child; Humans; Ammonia; Acetic Acid; Pain
PubMed: 37272501
DOI: 10.1002/14651858.CD009688.pub3 -
Patient Education and Counseling Aug 2022This review systematically examines the theory base and effectiveness of communication strategies (i.e., message content, message attributes, communication channels, and... (Review)
Review
OBJECTIVE
This review systematically examines the theory base and effectiveness of communication strategies (i.e., message content, message attributes, communication channels, and communicators) of interventions for caregivers to prevent unintentional child injuries.
METHODS
Relevant articles were searched in the databases Communication and Mass Media Complete, PsycInfo, Pubmed, and Google Scholar, the journal Injury Prevention, and the literature of included studies. A total of 71 articles reporting 67 different studies were included and fully coded. Quality was assessed using the Mixed Methods Appraisal Tool. Coded categories and their frequencies are described, and the effectiveness of different communication strategies is explored with crosstabs.
RESULTS
Only 17 studies stated the use of a specific theory base; Precaution Adoption Process-Model, Theory of Planned Behavior, and Health Belief Model were most often used. The message content of most studies aimed at knowledge dissemination; however, addressing behavioral determinants, such as risk perception and self-efficacy, was more effective. About half of the studies did not elaborate on message attributes; calls to action, exemplars, and tailoring were most often used, the latter being most effective. Communication channels ranged from printed products to face-to-face communication and digital media. In addition, studies specifying interpersonal communicators were highly effective.
CONCLUSION
The results of the review suggest that the following aspects can contribute to effective communication in child injury prevention: theory-based communication, addressing broad knowledge and further behavioral determinants, digital tailoring, and health professionals as communicators. However, a conclusive statement on the effectiveness of different communication strategies is hampered by the fact that they are not specified and/or confounded in many studies.
PRACTICE IMPLICATIONS
Communication strategies should be theory based and address, in addition to knowledge, behavioral determinants such as risk perception and self-efficacy. Moreover, digital tailoring is an advanced way of enhancing effectiveness and health professionals, such as pediatricians and clinic staff, are important multipliers.
Topics: Caregivers; Child; Communication; Family; Health Personnel; Humans; Internet
PubMed: 35537900
DOI: 10.1016/j.pec.2022.04.015 -
The Journal of Clinical Pediatric... Jul 2022Pediatricians are primary health care professionals who supervise the growth and development and treat infants and children during the first years of life. Thus, they...
Pediatricians are primary health care professionals who supervise the growth and development and treat infants and children during the first years of life. Thus, they should possess knowledge regarding oral health care, to provide anticipatory guidance, as well as dental education to parents in order to make appropriate clinical decisions. For many years, several surveys have been performed worldwide to assess the pediatricians' knowledge, awareness, and experience regarding oral health care and prevention. This work aimed to scope the existing literature and summarize the most relevant evidence about knowledge, practices, and attitudes on oral health/care among pediatricians worldwide. PubMed, Cochrane Library, Google Scholar, and Dentistry & Oral Sciences Source were explored. Under a structured PCC question and eligibility criteria, for relevant clinical trials and observational studies, published during the last decade. Titles and abstracts were screened. Full-text articles were critically reviewed for bias risk and a data charting table was constructed. A total of 44 references were initially identified, and 37 titles remained for abstract screening after removing duplicates; then, 27 potential full-text articles were carefully reviewed. Finally, 25 relevant and most informative studies were included. The selected studies were conducted in India, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, and Paraguay, Europe, Australia, Qatar, Iran, Turkey, United Arab Emirates, Nigeria, Brazil, Chile, Germany, Taiwan, Canada, and the USA. Through included surveys, researchers have reported different levels of knowledge, practice involvement, and attitude on children's oral health among pediatricians. In general, unsatisfactory knowledge of oral health was reported. The main impediments for a better professional involvement or practice include inappropriate education, poor auto-confidence, and lack of time. So, it has been suggested that some oral health training or clinical guidelines should be included in the current medical curricula.
Topics: Attitude of Health Personnel; Child; Health Promotion; Humans; Infant; Oral Health; Pediatricians; Surveys and Questionnaires
PubMed: 36099234
DOI: 10.22514/1053-4625-46.4.2 -
The Cochrane Database of Systematic... Sep 2022Autism spectrum disorder is a neurodevelopmental disorder characterised by social communication difficulties, restricted interests and repetitive behaviours. The... (Meta-Analysis)
Meta-Analysis Review
BACKGROUND
Autism spectrum disorder is a neurodevelopmental disorder characterised by social communication difficulties, restricted interests and repetitive behaviours. The clinical pathway for children with a diagnosis of autism spectrum disorder is varied, and current research suggests some children may not continue to meet diagnostic criteria over time.
OBJECTIVES
The primary objective of this review was to synthesise the available evidence on the proportion of preschool children who have a diagnosis of autism spectrum disorder at baseline (diagnosed before six years of age) who continue to meet diagnostic criteria at follow-up one or more years later (up to 19 years of age).
SEARCH METHODS
We searched MEDLINE, Embase, PsycINFO, and eight other databases in October 2017 and ran top-up searches up to July 2021. We also searched reference lists of relevant systematic reviews.
SELECTION CRITERIA
Two review authors independently assessed prospective and retrospective follow-up studies that used the same measure and process within studies to diagnose autism spectrum disorder at baseline and follow-up. Studies were required to have at least one year of follow-up and contain at least 10 participants. Participants were all aged less than six years at baseline assessment and followed up before 19 years of age.
DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS
We extracted data on study characteristics and the proportion of children diagnosed with autism spectrum disorder at baseline and follow-up. We also collected information on change in scores on measures that assess the dimensions of autism spectrum disorder (i.e. social communication and restricted interests and repetitive behaviours). Two review authors independently extracted data on study characteristics and assessed risk of bias using a modified quality in prognosis studies (QUIPS) tool. We conducted a random-effects meta-analysis or narrative synthesis, depending on the type of data available. We also conducted prognostic factor analyses to explore factors that may predict diagnostic outcome.
MAIN RESULTS
In total, 49 studies met our inclusion criteria and 42 of these (11,740 participants) had data that could be extracted. Of the 42 studies, 25 (60%) were conducted in North America, 13 (31%) were conducted in Europe and the UK, and four (10%) in Asia. Most (52%) studies were published before 2014. The mean age of the participants was 3.19 years (range 1.13 to 5.0 years) at baseline and 6.12 years (range 3.0 to 12.14 years) at follow-up. The mean length of follow-up was 2.86 years (range 1.0 to 12.41 years). The majority of the children were boys (81%), and just over half (60%) of the studies primarily included participants with intellectual disability (intelligence quotient < 70). The mean sample size was 272 (range 10 to 8564). Sixty-nine per cent of studies used one diagnostic assessment tool, 24% used two tools and 7% used three or more tools. Diagnosis was decided by a multidisciplinary team in 41% of studies. No data were available for the outcomes of social communication and restricted and repetitive behaviours and interests. Of the 42 studies with available data, we were able to synthesise data from 34 studies (69% of all included studies; n = 11,129) in a meta-analysis. In summary, 92% (95% confidence interval 89% to 95%) of participants continued to meet diagnostic criteria for autism spectrum disorder from baseline to follow-up one or more years later; however, the quality of the evidence was judged as low due to study limitations and inconsistency. The majority of the included studies (95%) were rated at high risk of bias. We were unable to explore the outcomes of change in social communication and restricted and repetitive behaviour and interests between baseline and follow-up as none of the included studies provided separate domain scores at baseline and follow-up. Details on conflict of interest were reported in 24 studies. Funding support was reported by 30 studies, 12 studies omitted details on funding sources and two studies reported no funding support. Declared funding sources were categorised as government, university or non-government organisation or charity groups. We considered it unlikely funding sources would have significantly influenced the outcomes, given the nature of prognosis studies.
AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS
Overall, we found that nine out of 10 children who were diagnosed with autism spectrum disorder before six years of age continued to meet diagnostic criteria for autism spectrum disorder a year or more later, however the evidence was uncertain. Confidence in the evidence was rated low using GRADE, due to heterogeneity and risk of bias, and there were few studies that included children diagnosed using a current classification system, such as the fifth edition of the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM-5) or the eleventh revision of the International Classification of Diseases (ICD-11). Future studies that are well-designed, prospective and specifically assess prognosis of autism spectrum disorder diagnoses are needed. These studies should also include contemporary diagnostic assessment methods across a broad range of participants and investigate a range of relevant prognostic factors.
Topics: Adult; Autism Spectrum Disorder; Child; Child, Preschool; Female; Humans; Infant; Male; Prognosis; Prospective Studies; Retrospective Studies; Schools; Young Adult
PubMed: 36169177
DOI: 10.1002/14651858.CD012749.pub2