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BMJ Open Dec 2022To quantify the prognostic effects of demographic and modifiable factors in streptococcal toxic shock syndrome (STSS). (Meta-Analysis)
Meta-Analysis
OBJECTIVES
To quantify the prognostic effects of demographic and modifiable factors in streptococcal toxic shock syndrome (STSS).
DESIGN
Systematic review and meta-analysis.
DATA SOURCES
MEDLINE, EMBASE and CINAHL from inception to 19 September 2022, along with citations of included studies.
ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA
Pairs of reviewers independently screened potentially eligible studies of patients with Group A -induced STSS that quantified the association between at least one prognostic factor and outcome of interest.
DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS
We performed random-effects meta-analysis after duplicate data extraction and risk of bias assessments. We rated the certainty of evidence using the Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluation approach.
RESULTS
One randomised trial and 40 observational studies were eligible (n=1918 patients). We found a statistically significant association between clindamycin treatment and mortality (n=144; OR 0.14, 95% CI 0.06 to 0.37), but the certainty of evidence was low. Within clindamycin-treated STSS patients, we found a statistically significant association between intravenous Ig treatment and mortality (n=188; OR 0.34, 95% CI 0.15 to 0.75), but the certainty of evidence was also low. The odds of mortality may increase in patients ≥65 years when compared with patients 18-64 years (n=396; OR 2.37, 95% CI 1.47 to 3.84), but the certainty of evidence was low. We are uncertain whether non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs increase the odds of mortality (n=50; OR 4.14, 95% CI 1.13 to 15.14; very low certainty). Results failed to show a significant association between any other prognostic factor and outcome combination (very low to low certainty evidence) and no studies quantified the association between a prognostic factor and morbidity post-infection in STSS survivors.
CONCLUSIONS
Treatment with clindamycin and within clindamycin-treated patients, IVIG, was each significantly associated with mortality, but the certainty of evidence was low. Future research should focus on morbidity post-infection in STSS survivors.
PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER
CRD42020166961.
Topics: Humans; Shock, Septic; Clindamycin; Prognosis; Streptococcal Infections; Streptococcus pyogenes; Immunoglobulins, Intravenous
PubMed: 36456018
DOI: 10.1136/bmjopen-2022-063023 -
Journal of Cachexia, Sarcopenia and... Feb 2023The loss of skeletal muscle mass and function is defined as sarcopenia, which might develop in elderly patients with cancers. It has been indicated as a potential... (Meta-Analysis)
Meta-Analysis Review
The loss of skeletal muscle mass and function is defined as sarcopenia, which might develop in elderly patients with cancers. It has been indicated as a potential negative factor in the survival of patients with malignant tumours. The aim of this systematic review and meta-analysis was to evaluate the associations between sarcopenia and survival outcomes or postoperative complications in patients with oesophageal cancer (EC). Web of Science, Embase, Medline, and Cochrane Library databases were searched until 10 May 2022, using keywords: sarcopenia, oesophageal cancer, and prognosis. Studies investigating the prognostic value of sarcopenia on EC survival were included. Forest plots and summary effect models were used to show the result of this meta-analysis. The quality of included studies was evaluated with the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale (NOS). A total of 1436 studies were identified from the initial search of four databases, and 41 studies were included for the final quantitative analysis. This meta-analysis revealed a significant association between sarcopenia and overall survival (OS) [hazard ratios (HR):1.68, 95% confidence interval (CI):1.54-1.83, P = 0.004, I = 41.7%] or disease-free survival (DFS) 1.97 (HR: 1.97, 95% CI: 1.44-2.69, P = 0.007, I = 61.9%) of EC patients. Subgroup analysis showed that sarcopenia remained a consistent negative predictor of survival when stratified by different treatment methods, populations, or sarcopenia measurements. Sarcopenia was also a risk factor for postoperative complications with a pooled odds ratio of 1.47 (95% CI: 1.21-1.77, P = 0.094, I = 32.7%). The NOS scores of all included studies were ≥6, and the quality of the evidence was relatively high. The results from the study suggested that sarcopenia was significantly associated with both survival outcomes and postoperative complications in EC patients. Sarcopenia should be appropriately diagnosed and treated for improving short-term and long-term outcomes of patients with EC.
Topics: Humans; Aged; Prognosis; Sarcopenia; Esophageal Neoplasms; Proportional Hazards Models; Postoperative Complications
PubMed: 36415154
DOI: 10.1002/jcsm.13126 -
International Journal of Radiation... Feb 2024This systematic review and meta-analysis reports on outcomes and hepatic toxicity rates after stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT) for liver-confined... (Meta-Analysis)
Meta-Analysis Review
This systematic review and meta-analysis reports on outcomes and hepatic toxicity rates after stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT) for liver-confined hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and presents consensus guidelines regarding appropriate patient management. Using the Preferred Reporting Items for Systemic Review and Meta-Analyses guidelines, a systematic review was performed from articles reporting outcomes at ≥5 years published before October 2022 from the Embase, MEDLINE, Cochrane, and Scopus databases with the following search terms: ("stereotactic body radiotherapy" OR "SBRT" OR "SABR" OR "stereotactic ablative radiotherapy") AND ("hepatocellular carcinoma" OR "HCC"). An aggregated data meta-analysis was conducted to assess overall survival (OS) and local control (LC) using weighted random effects models. In addition, individual patient data analyses incorporating data from 6 institutions were conducted as their own subgroup analyses. Seventeen observational studies, comprising 1889 patients with HCC treated with ≤9 SBRT fractions, between 2003 and 2019, were included in the aggregated data meta-analysis. The 3- and 5-year OS rates after SBRT were 57% (95% confidence interval [CI], 47%-66%) and 40% (95% CI, 29%-51%), respectively. The 3- and 5-year LC rates after SBRT were 84% (95% CI, 77%-90%) and 82% (95% CI, 74%-88%), respectively. Tumor size was the only prognostic factor for LC. Tumor size and region were significantly associated with OS. Five-year LC and OS rates of 79% (95% CI, 0.74-0.84) and 25% (95% CI, 0.20-0.30), respectively, were observed in the individual patient data analyses. Factors prognostic for improved OS were tumor size <3 cm, Eastern region, Child-Pugh score ≤B7, and the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer stage of 0 and A. The incidence of severe hepatic toxicity varied according to the criteria applied. SBRT is an effective treatment modality for patients with HCC with mature follow-up. Clinical practice guidelines were developed on behalf of the International Stereotactic Radiosurgery Society (ISRS).
Topics: Humans; Carcinoma, Hepatocellular; Liver Neoplasms; Radiosurgery; Treatment Outcome; Retrospective Studies
PubMed: 37597757
DOI: 10.1016/j.ijrobp.2023.08.015 -
PloS One 2020The objective of our systematic review is to identify prognostic factors that may be used in decision-making related to the care of patients infected with COVID-19.
BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE
The objective of our systematic review is to identify prognostic factors that may be used in decision-making related to the care of patients infected with COVID-19.
DATA SOURCES
We conducted highly sensitive searches in PubMed/MEDLINE, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) and Embase. The searches covered the period from the inception date of each database until April 28, 2020. No study design, publication status or language restriction were applied.
STUDY SELECTION AND DATA EXTRACTION
We included studies that assessed patients with confirmed or suspected SARS-CoV-2 infectious disease and examined one or more prognostic factors for mortality or disease severity. Reviewers working in pairs independently screened studies for eligibility, extracted data and assessed the risk of bias. We performed meta-analyses and used GRADE to assess the certainty of the evidence for each prognostic factor and outcome.
RESULTS
We included 207 studies and found high or moderate certainty that the following 49 variables provide valuable prognostic information on mortality and/or severe disease in patients with COVID-19 infectious disease: Demographic factors (age, male sex, smoking), patient history factors (comorbidities, cerebrovascular disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, chronic kidney disease, cardiovascular disease, cardiac arrhythmia, arterial hypertension, diabetes, dementia, cancer and dyslipidemia), physical examination factors (respiratory failure, low blood pressure, hypoxemia, tachycardia, dyspnea, anorexia, tachypnea, haemoptysis, abdominal pain, fatigue, fever and myalgia or arthralgia), laboratory factors (high blood procalcitonin, myocardial injury markers, high blood White Blood Cell count (WBC), high blood lactate, low blood platelet count, plasma creatinine increase, high blood D-dimer, high blood lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), high blood C-reactive protein (CRP), decrease in lymphocyte count, high blood aspartate aminotransferase (AST), decrease in blood albumin, high blood interleukin-6 (IL-6), high blood neutrophil count, high blood B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP), high blood urea nitrogen (BUN), high blood creatine kinase (CK), high blood bilirubin and high erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR)), radiological factors (consolidative infiltrate and pleural effusion) and high SOFA score (sequential organ failure assessment score).
CONCLUSION
Identified prognostic factors can help clinicians and policy makers in tailoring management strategies for patients with COVID-19 infectious disease while researchers can utilise our findings to develop multivariable prognostic models that could eventually facilitate decision-making and improve patient important outcomes.
SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION
Prospero registration number: CRD42020178802. Protocol available at: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.08.20056598v1.
Topics: Aged; Aging; Betacoronavirus; COVID-19; Comorbidity; Coronavirus Infections; Data Management; Female; Humans; Male; Middle Aged; Pandemics; Pneumonia, Viral; Prognosis; Risk Factors; SARS-CoV-2; Socioeconomic Factors
PubMed: 33201896
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0241955 -
Muscle & Nerve Oct 2022Prognostic factors in Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD) predict the disease course and may help individualize patient care. The aim was to summarize the evidence on... (Meta-Analysis)
Meta-Analysis
INTRODUCTION/AIMS
Prognostic factors in Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD) predict the disease course and may help individualize patient care. The aim was to summarize the evidence on prognostic factors that may support treatment decisions.
METHODS
We searched six databases for prospective studies that each included ≥50 DMD patients with a minimum follow-up of 1 y. Primary outcomes were age at loss of ambulation (LoA), pulmonary function (forced vital capacity percent of predicted, FVC%p), and heart failure.
RESULTS
Out of 5074 references, 59 studies were analyzed. Corticosteroid use was associated with a delayed LoA (pooled effect hazard ratio [HR] 0.42, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.23-0.75, I2 94%), better pulmonary function tests (higher peak FVC%, prolonged time with FVC%p > 50%, and reduced need for assisted ventilation) and delayed cardiomyopathy. Longer corticosteroid treatment was associated with later LoA (>1 y compared to <1 y; pooled HR: 0.50, 95% CI 0.27-0.90) and early treatment start (aged <5 y) may be associated with early cardiomyopathy and higher fracture risk. Genotype appeared to be an independent driver of LoA in some studies. Higher baseline physical function tests (e.g., 6-minute walk test) were associated with delayed LoA. Left ventricular dysfunction and FVC <1 L increased and the use of angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitors reduced the risk of heart failure and death. Fusion surgery in scoliosis may potentially preserve pulmonary function.
DISCUSSION
Prognostic factors that may inform clinical decisions include age at corticosteroid treatment initiation and treatment duration, ACE-inhibitor use, baseline physical function tests, pulmonary function, and cardiac dysfunction.
Topics: Adrenal Cortex Hormones; Angiotensin-Converting Enzyme Inhibitors; Angiotensins; Cardiomyopathies; Disease Progression; Heart Failure; Humans; Muscular Dystrophy, Duchenne; Prognosis; Prospective Studies; Treatment Outcome
PubMed: 35860996
DOI: 10.1002/mus.27682 -
Molecular Psychiatry Dec 2020Depression and anxiety are common comorbidities in breast cancer patients. Whether depression and anxiety are associated with breast cancer progression or mortality is... (Meta-Analysis)
Meta-Analysis Review
Depression and anxiety are common comorbidities in breast cancer patients. Whether depression and anxiety are associated with breast cancer progression or mortality is unclear. Herein, based on a systematic literature search, 17 eligible studies involving 282,203 breast cancer patients were included. The results showed that depression was associated with cancer recurrence [1.24 (1.07, 1.43)], all-cause mortality [1.30 (1.23, 1.36)], and cancer-specific mortality [1.29 (1.11, 1.49)]. However, anxiety was associated with recurrence [1.17 (1.02, 1.34)] and all-cause mortality [1.13 (1.07, 1.19)] but not with cancer-specific mortality [1.05 (0.82, 1.35)]. Comorbidity of depression and anxiety is associated with all-cause mortality [1.34 (1.24, 1.45)] and cancer-specific mortality [1.45 (1.11, 1.90)]. Subgroup analyses demonstrated that clinically diagnosed depression and anxiety, being female and of younger age (<60 years), and shorter follow-up duration (≤5 years) were related to a poorer prognosis. Our study highlights the critical role of depression/anxiety as an independent factor in predicting breast cancer recurrence and survival. Further research should focus on a favorable strategy that works best to improve outcomes among breast cancer patients with mental disorders.
Topics: Anxiety; Breast Neoplasms; Depression; Female; Humans; Middle Aged; Neoplasm Recurrence, Local; Prognosis
PubMed: 32820237
DOI: 10.1038/s41380-020-00865-6 -
Gastroenterology Apr 2021Patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) have an increased risk of colorectal cancer (CRC). We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to identify all... (Meta-Analysis)
Meta-Analysis
BACKGROUND AND AIMS
Patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) have an increased risk of colorectal cancer (CRC). We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to identify all prognostic factors for advanced colorectal neoplasia (aCRN, high-grade dysplasia, or CRC) in patients with IBD.
METHODS
A systematic literature search was conducted according to the Meta-analysis Of Observational Studies in Epidemiology (MOOSE) guidelines. Risk of bias was assessed using the Quality in Prognostic Studies tool. Random-effects models were created separately for odds and hazard ratios, different study designs, and univariable or multivariable data. The evidence for all prognostic factors was categorized as "weak", "moderate", or "strong", based on estimate of effect sizes, heterogeneity, and risk of bias.
RESULTS
A total of 164 studies were included, allowing pooled analysis of 31 potential prognostic factors. In the univariable analysis, the evidence for extensive disease was classified as strong while evidence for low-grade dysplasia, strictures, primary sclerosing cholangitis, post-inflammatory polyps, family history of CRC, and ulcerative colitis versus Crohn's disease was considered moderate. Evidence for any dysplasia, colon segment resection, aneuploidy, male sex, and age was classified as weak. In addition, histologic inflammation was identified as a risk factor in multivariable analysis (weak evidence). The evidence for the protective factors colonoscopic surveillance, 5-Aminosalicylic Acid, thiopurines, and smoking was moderate in univariable analysis. Multivariable analysis provided weak evidence for statin use.
CONCLUSIONS
In this systematic review and meta-analysis, we identified 13 risk factors and 5 protective factors for aCRN in IBD patients, based on univariable and/or multivariable pooled analyses. These findings might lay the groundwork for an improved CRC risk stratification-based surveillance in IBD.
Topics: Colitis, Ulcerative; Colitis-Associated Neoplasms; Colorectal Neoplasms; Crohn Disease; Humans; Neoplasm Grading; Prognosis; Protective Factors; Risk Assessment; Risk Factors
PubMed: 33385426
DOI: 10.1053/j.gastro.2020.12.036 -
The Cochrane Database of Systematic... Feb 2023Diabetic retinopathy (DR) is characterised by neurovascular degeneration as a result of chronic hyperglycaemia. Proliferative diabetic retinopathy (PDR) is the most... (Review)
Review
BACKGROUND
Diabetic retinopathy (DR) is characterised by neurovascular degeneration as a result of chronic hyperglycaemia. Proliferative diabetic retinopathy (PDR) is the most serious complication of DR and can lead to total (central and peripheral) visual loss. PDR is characterised by the presence of abnormal new blood vessels, so-called "new vessels," at the optic disc (NVD) or elsewhere in the retina (NVE). PDR can progress to high-risk characteristics (HRC) PDR (HRC-PDR), which is defined by the presence of NVD more than one-fourth to one-third disc area in size plus vitreous haemorrhage or pre-retinal haemorrhage, or vitreous haemorrhage or pre-retinal haemorrhage obscuring more than one disc area. In severe cases, fibrovascular membranes grow over the retinal surface and tractional retinal detachment with sight loss can occur, despite treatment. Although most, if not all, individuals with diabetes will develop DR if they live long enough, only some progress to the sight-threatening PDR stage. OBJECTIVES: To determine risk factors for the development of PDR and HRC-PDR in people with diabetes and DR.
SEARCH METHODS
We searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL; which contains the Cochrane Eyes and Vision Trials Register; 2022, Issue 5), Ovid MEDLINE, and Ovid Embase. The date of the search was 27 May 2022. Additionally, the search was supplemented by screening reference lists of eligible articles. There were no restrictions to language or year of publication. SELECTION CRITERIA: We included prospective or retrospective cohort studies and case-control longitudinal studies evaluating prognostic factors for the development and progression of PDR, in people who have not had previous treatment for DR. The target population consisted of adults (≥18 years of age) of any gender, sexual orientation, ethnicity, socioeconomic status, and geographical location, with non-proliferative diabetic retinopathy (NPDR) or PDR with less than HRC-PDR, diagnosed as per standard clinical practice. Two review authors independently screened titles and abstracts, and full-text articles, to determine eligibility; discrepancies were resolved through discussion. We considered prognostic factors measured at baseline and any other time points during the study and in any clinical setting. Outcomes were evaluated at three and eight years (± two years) or lifelong. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two review authors independently extracted data from included studies using a data extraction form that we developed and piloted prior to the data collection stage. We resolved any discrepancies through discussion. We used the Quality in Prognosis Studies (QUIPS) tool to assess risk of bias. We conducted meta-analyses in clinically relevant groups using a random-effects approach. We reported hazard ratios (HR), odds ratios (OR), and risk ratios (RR) separately for each available prognostic factor and outcome, stratified by different time points. Where possible, we meta-analysed adjusted prognostic factors. We evaluated the certainty of the evidence with an adapted version of the GRADE framework. MAIN RESULTS: We screened 6391 records. From these, we identified 59 studies (87 articles) as eligible for inclusion. Thirty-five were prospective cohort studies, 22 were retrospective studies, 18 of which were cohort and six were based on data from electronic registers, and two were retrospective case-control studies. Twenty-three studies evaluated participants with type 1 diabetes (T1D), 19 with type 2 diabetes (T2D), and 17 included mixed populations (T1D and T2D). Studies on T1D included between 39 and 3250 participants at baseline, followed up for one to 45 years. Studies on T2D included between 100 and 71,817 participants at baseline, followed up for one to 20 years. The studies on mixed populations of T1D and T2D ranged from 76 to 32,553 participants at baseline, followed up for four to 25 years. We found evidence indicating that higher glycated haemoglobin (haemoglobin A1c (HbA1c)) levels (adjusted OR ranged from 1.11 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.93 to 1.32) to 2.10 (95% CI 1.64 to 2.69) and more advanced stages of retinopathy (adjusted OR ranged from 1.38 (95% CI 1.29 to 1.48) to 12.40 (95% CI 5.31 to 28.98) are independent risk factors for the development of PDR in people with T1D and T2D. We rated the evidence for these factors as of moderate certainty because of moderate to high risk of bias in the studies. There was also some evidence suggesting several markers for renal disease (for example, nephropathy (adjusted OR ranged from 1.58 (95% CI not reported) to 2.68 (2.09 to 3.42), and creatinine (adjusted meta-analysis HR 1.61 (95% CI 0.77 to 3.36)), and, in people with T1D, age at diagnosis of diabetes (< 12 years of age) (standardised regression estimate 1.62, 95% CI 1.06 to 2.48), increased triglyceride levels (adjusted RR 1.55, 95% CI 1.06 to 1.95), and larger retinal venular diameters (RR 4.28, 95% CI 1.50 to 12.19) may increase the risk of progression to PDR. The certainty of evidence for these factors, however, was low to very low, due to risk of bias in the included studies, inconsistency (lack of studies preventing the grading of consistency or variable outcomes), and imprecision (wide CIs). There was no substantial and consistent evidence to support duration of diabetes, systolic or diastolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, low- (LDL) and high- (HDL) density lipoproteins, gender, ethnicity, body mass index (BMI), socioeconomic status, or tobacco and alcohol consumption as being associated with incidence of PDR. There was insufficient evidence to evaluate prognostic factors associated with progression of PDR to HRC-PDR. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: Increased HbA1c is likely to be associated with progression to PDR; therefore, maintaining adequate glucose control throughout life, irrespective of stage of DR severity, may help to prevent progression to PDR and risk of its sight-threatening complications. Renal impairment in people with T1D or T2D, as well as younger age at diagnosis of diabetes mellitus (DM), increased triglyceride levels, and increased retinal venular diameters in people with T1D may also be associated with increased risk of progression to PDR. Given that more advanced DR severity is associated with higher risk of progression to PDR, the earlier the disease is identified, and the above systemic risk factors are controlled, the greater the chance of reducing the risk of PDR and saving sight.
Topics: Adult; Female; Humans; Male; Diabetes Mellitus, Type 1; Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2; Diabetic Retinopathy; Glycated Hemoglobin; Prognosis; Prospective Studies; Retinal Hemorrhage; Retrospective Studies; Triglycerides; Vitreous Hemorrhage
PubMed: 36815723
DOI: 10.1002/14651858.CD013775.pub2 -
Medicina (Kaunas, Lithuania) Sep 2020The long-term outcome of endodontic microsurgery (EMS) performed on root-filled teeth affected by post-treatment apical periodontitis (AP) has been a matter of debate,... (Meta-Analysis)
Meta-Analysis
The long-term outcome of endodontic microsurgery (EMS) performed on root-filled teeth affected by post-treatment apical periodontitis (AP) has been a matter of debate, re-launched by the introduction of novel root-end filling materials which have been proven to improve the short-term outcome of EMS. The purpose of this systematic review and meta-analysis is to evaluate the clinical and radiographic long-term outcome of endodontic microsurgery in teeth diagnosed with secondary AP through radiographic evaluation. This systematic review and meta-analysis followed the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines. Inclusion and exclusion criteria were defined a priori to select the best longitudinal evidence. Only randomized clinical trials (RCT) and prospective clinical studies (PCS), with a follow-up ≥ 2-year, and exhibiting well-established clinical and radiographic outcome criteria, were selected. A total of 573 articles were obtained, from which 10 fulfill inclusion criteria: 6 PCS and 4 RCT. Meta-analysis showed a pooled proportion of success rate of 91.3%, from an overall amount of 453 treated teeth included in RCT; from overall 839 included teeth in PCS, a pooled success rate of 78.4% was observed, with the follow-up time ranging from 2 to 13-years. Survival rate outcomes varied from 79 to 100% for the same follow-up period. Five prognostic factors with influence on the outcome were disclosed: smoking habits, tooth location and type, absence/presence of dentinal defects, interproximal bone level, and root-end filling material. High success rates and predictable results can be expected when EMS is performed by trained endodontists, allowing good prognosis and preservation of teeth affected by secondary AP.
Topics: Endodontics; Humans; Microsurgery; Prognosis; Prospective Studies; Root Canal Filling Materials; Treatment Outcome
PubMed: 32899437
DOI: 10.3390/medicina56090447 -
The Cochrane Database of Systematic... Jan 2023Epilepsy is clinically defined as two or more unprovoked epileptic seizures more than 24 hours apart. Given that, a diagnosis of epilepsy can be associated with... (Meta-Analysis)
Meta-Analysis Review
BACKGROUND
Epilepsy is clinically defined as two or more unprovoked epileptic seizures more than 24 hours apart. Given that, a diagnosis of epilepsy can be associated with significant morbidity and mortality, it is imperative that clinicians (and people with seizures and their relatives) have access to accurate and reliable prognostic estimates, to guide clinical practice on the risks of developing further unprovoked seizures (and by definition, a diagnosis of epilepsy) following single unprovoked epileptic seizure.
OBJECTIVES
1. To provide an accurate estimate of the proportion of individuals going on to have further unprovoked seizures at subsequent time points following a single unprovoked epileptic seizure (or cluster of epileptic seizures within a 24-hour period, or a first episode of status epilepticus), of any seizure type (overall prognosis). 2. To evaluate the mortality rate following a first unprovoked epileptic seizure.
SEARCH METHODS
We searched the following databases on 19 September 2019 and again on 30 March 2021, with no language restrictions. The Cochrane Register of Studies (CRS Web), MEDLINE Ovid (1946 to March 29, 2021), SCOPUS (1823 onwards), ClinicalTrials.gov, the World Health Organization (WHO) International Clinical Trials Registry Platform (ICTRP). CRS Web includes randomized or quasi-randomized, controlled trials from PubMed, Embase, ClinicalTrials.gov, the World Health Organization International Clinical Trials Registry Platform (ICTRP), the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), and the Specialized Registers of Cochrane Review Groups including Epilepsy. In MEDLINE (Ovid) the coverage end date always lags a few days behind the search date.
SELECTION CRITERIA
We included studies, both retrospective and prospective, of all age groups (except those in the neonatal period (< 1 month of age)), of people with a single unprovoked seizure, followed up for a minimum of six months, with no upper limit of follow-up, with the study end point being seizure recurrence, death, or loss to follow-up. To be included, studies must have included at least 30 participants. We excluded studies that involved people with seizures that occur as a result of an acute precipitant or provoking factor, or in close temporal proximity to an acute neurological insult, since these are not considered epileptic in aetiology (acute symptomatic seizures). We also excluded people with situational seizures, such as febrile convulsions.
DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS
Two review authors conducted the initial screening of titles and abstracts identified through the electronic searches, and removed non-relevant articles. We obtained the full-text articles of all remaining potentially relevant studies, or those whose relevance could not be determined from the abstract alone and two authors independently assessed for eligibility. All disagreements were resolved through discussion with no need to defer to a third review author. We extracted data from included studies using a data extraction form based on the checklist for critical appraisal and data extraction for systematicreviews of prediction modelling studies (CHARMS). Two review authors then appraised the included studies, using a standardised approach based on the quality in prognostic studies (QUIPS) tool, which was adapted for overall prognosis (seizure recurrence). We conducted a meta-analysis using Review Manager 2014, with a random-effects generic inverse variance meta-analysis model, which accounted for any between-study heterogeneity in the prognostic effect. We then summarised the meta-analysis by the pooled estimate (the average prognostic factor effect), its 95% confidence interval (CI), the estimates of I² and Tau² (heterogeneity), and a 95% prediction interval for the prognostic effect in a single population at three various time points, 6 months, 12 months and 24 months. Subgroup analysis was performed according to the ages of the cohorts included; studies involving all ages, studies that recruited adult only and those that were purely paediatric.
MAIN RESULTS
Fifty-eight studies (involving 54 cohorts), with a total of 12,160 participants (median 147, range 31 to 1443), met the inclusion criteria for the review. Of the 58 studies, 26 studies were paediatric studies, 16 were adult and the remaining 16 studies were a combination of paediatric and adult populations. Most included studies had a cohort study design with two case-control studies and one nested case-control study. Thirty-two studies (29 cohorts) reported a prospective longitudinal design whilst 15 studies had a retrospective design whilst the remaining studies were randomised controlled trials. Nine of the studies included presented mortality data following a first unprovoked seizure. For a mortality study to be included, a proportional mortality ratio (PMR) or a standardised mortality ratio (SMR) had to be given at a specific time point following a first unprovoked seizure. To be included in the meta-analysis a study had to present clear seizure recurrence data at 6 months, 12 months or 24 months. Forty-six studies were included in the meta-analysis, of which 23 were paediatric, 13 were adult, and 10 were a combination of paediatric and adult populations. A meta-analysis was performed at three time points; six months, one year and two years for all ages combined, paediatric and adult studies, respectively. We found an estimated overall seizure recurrence of all included studies at six months of 27% (95% CI 24% to 31%), 36% (95% CI 33% to 40%) at one year and 43% (95% CI 37% to 44%) at two years, with slightly lower estimates for adult subgroup analysis and slightly higher estimates for paediatric subgroup analysis. It was not possible to provide a summary estimate of the risk of seizure recurrence beyond these time points as most of the included studies were of short follow-up and too few studies presented recurrence rates at a single time point beyond two years. The evidence presented was found to be of moderate certainty.
AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS
Despite the limitations of the data (moderate-certainty of evidence), mainly relating to clinical and methodological heterogeneity we have provided summary estimates for the likely risk of seizure recurrence at six months, one year and two years for both children and adults. This provides information that is likely to be useful for the clinician counselling patients (or their parents) on the probable risk of further seizures in the short-term whilst acknowledging the paucity of long-term recurrence data, particularly beyond 10 years.
Topics: Adult; Child; Humans; Anticonvulsants; Case-Control Studies; Cohort Studies; Epilepsies, Partial; Epilepsy; Prognosis; Prospective Studies; Retrospective Studies; Seizures
PubMed: 36688481
DOI: 10.1002/14651858.CD013847.pub2