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Indian Journal of Public Health Apr 2024The impact of COVID-19 on human life has been catastrophic. It is the greatest crisis that humankind has ever faced. It already caused over 21 million confirmed cases...
The impact of COVID-19 on human life has been catastrophic. It is the greatest crisis that humankind has ever faced. It already caused over 21 million confirmed cases and 758,000 deaths as of July 2021. Modeling frameworks, underlying assumptions, available datasets, and the region/time frame being modeled, predictions are possible, but the projections might vary widely, making it difficult to rely on one model universally way. This article presents the prediction and forecasting technique for COVID-19, using the widely adopted susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered (SEIR) model. The modified SEIR model is presented to model the pandemic to represent an open system where the mass movement of the population is considered. Spreading patterns of the pandemic over time, in actual and as per the model, are compared to check the authenticity of the model.
Topics: COVID-19; Humans; India; SARS-CoV-2; Pandemics
PubMed: 38953818
DOI: 10.4103/ijph.ijph_1742_22 -
Indian Journal of Public Health Apr 2024India has run a nationwide vaccination campaign against COVID-19, which has recently introduced a precaution (third) dose for health workers. This study assessed the...
INTRODUCTION
India has run a nationwide vaccination campaign against COVID-19, which has recently introduced a precaution (third) dose for health workers. This study assessed the perception and attitude of health workers toward the Indian vaccination campaign against COVID-19, with an emphasis on this major change.
MATERIALS AND METHODS
A printed questionnaire was distributed among health-care workers at the Medical College of West Bengal. The completed forms were analyzed.
RESULTS
Most of the participants were doctors (83.7%). Although all had received two doses of vaccine before, 44.4% were unwilling to be vaccinated with the third dose in the present scenario. The majority (63.8%) of the patients were concerned about side effects. The emergence of new COVID strains (65.6%) was viewed as a threat to the effectiveness of the vaccines. Participants with higher age, comorbidities, and those with the perception that the third dose was being introduced appropriately and would be effective against newer strains of the vaccine tended to be more willing to get vaccinated with the precaution dose compared to their counterparts.
CONCLUSION
A dilemma regarding the acceptance of precaution doses was noted among health workers. This warrants the availability of more comprehensive information to increase acceptance of these vaccines.
Topics: Humans; India; COVID-19 Vaccines; Male; COVID-19; Female; Adult; Health Personnel; SARS-CoV-2; Attitude of Health Personnel; Middle Aged; Surveys and Questionnaires; Vaccination; Young Adult; Vaccination Hesitancy
PubMed: 38953812
DOI: 10.4103/ijph.ijph_544_23 -
Indian Journal of Public Health Apr 2024The medical devices industry plays a critical role in public health and requires attention in research and policy. The COVID-19 pandemic exposed a lack of resilience in...
BACKGROUND
The medical devices industry plays a critical role in public health and requires attention in research and policy. The COVID-19 pandemic exposed a lack of resilience in areas of drugs and vaccines but also in medical products.
OBJECTIVES
The study analyzes India's strengths and weaknesses in the trade of medical devices and identifies specific devices where India can attain self-sufficiency and areas where trade is still beneficial.
MATERIALS AND METHODS
A set of critical products traded during the COVID-19 pandemic were identified from the World Integrated Trade Solution website at the 6-digit Harmonized System code level. A detailed analysis of exports and imports of medical products at disaggregated 8-digit codes was carried out.
RESULTS
During the pandemic, India had a trade surplus in some low-technology-based products such as suture needles, catheters, and cannulae along with X-ray apparatus and electrocardiographs among the medium-tech products. The imports of high-tech devices like in vitro diagnostics almost doubled to meet the surge in demand. The requirement of pulse oximeters, ventilators, and other monitoring devices jumped, and their imports reported an 800% increase from $134 million in 2019-2020 to $1162 million in 2021-2022. Most of India's imports of medical devices come from the top five exporting countries, with the share of the USA and China at 39%-40%.
CONCLUSION
There is a need to expand the manufacturing capacity of surgical instruments, consumables and disposables, apart from some high-tech products. The public health care facilities should procure domestically manufactured medical devices and trade with neighbouring countries to reduce import concentration must be prioritised.
Topics: COVID-19; India; Humans; Equipment and Supplies; Commerce; SARS-CoV-2; Pandemics
PubMed: 38953811
DOI: 10.4103/ijph.ijph_1403_23 -
Indian Journal of Public Health Apr 2024The debate over the extent of the mortality impact of COVID-19 in India is still unsettled.
BACKGROUND
The debate over the extent of the mortality impact of COVID-19 in India is still unsettled.
OBJECTIVES
This article contributes to the debate, seeking to explore the true mortality impact of the pandemic, by answering four interrelated questions. First, is there any discrepancy between recorded and actual death count? Second, if so, how large it is? Third, what is the extent of misclassification of COVID-19 mortality, and fourth, what is the magnitude of deaths that could be indirectly linked to COVID-19?
MATERIALS AND METHODS
To answer the questions, we explored three sources of data-all-cause mortality data from the civil registration system, records maintained at the burial grounds/cemeteries and crematoriums, and a household survey. The data collection period was between August 2021 and November 2021. The instrument used for data collection of verbal autopsies was built on the instrument proposed by the World Health Organization for adult mortality.
RESULTS
The results revealed that deaths due to various causes including COVID-19 increased considerably at some points in 2020-2021 compared to the base year 2019 in the study setting. Notably, 5.5% of the noninstitutional deaths were unreported at the time of the survey and many deaths were plausibly misclassified, leading to undercounting of COVID-19 deaths. Overall, about half of our sampled deaths (48%) had either direct or indirect attribution to the pandemic.
CONCLUSION
The extent of undercounting of pandemic-related deaths is likely to be either similar or worse in other states. To get reliable state and national estimates, policymakers should conduct a large-scale study.
Topics: Humans; COVID-19; India; Cause of Death; SARS-CoV-2; Adult; Female; Male; Middle Aged; Pandemics; Adolescent; Death Certificates
PubMed: 38953810
DOI: 10.4103/ijph.ijph_1333_23 -
Indian Journal of Public Health Apr 2024Air pollution is a significant issue for a developing country like India and the air quality index (AQI) forecasting helps to predict air quality levels in advance and...
BACKGROUND
Air pollution is a significant issue for a developing country like India and the air quality index (AQI) forecasting helps to predict air quality levels in advance and allows individuals to take precautionary measures to protect their health.
OBJECTIVES
The study aimed to forecast the AQI for an industrial area (SIDCUL, Haridwar City) using a time series regression model.
MATERIALS AND METHODS
Three years of existing AQI data points (post-COVID-19) were collected from the Uttarakhand Pollution Control Board for the SIDCUL area of Haridwar City and tried to know the status of AQI values for the following 12 months. Trend and seasonality components were seen through the decomposition process. Further, the augmented Dickey-Fuller test was applied to check the stationarity of the series before finalizing the best-suited time series model for forecasting the AQI values.
RESULTS
With the help of autocorrelation function (ACF)/partial ACF plots, a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) (0,1,0) (1,0,0)[12] model was selected with the minimum akaike information criterion (253.143) and mean absolute percentage error (17.42%). The AQI values have also been forecasted for this industrial area (SIDCUL) for the following year.
CONCLUSION
The seasonal ARIMA (0,1,0) (1,0,0)[12] model may be helpful to forecast the AQI values for a nonstationary time series dataset. Research indicates that the air of the SIDCUL area will become moderately polluted and may cause breathing discomfort to asthma patients' health. The scientists might apply this model to other polluted regions of the country so that the public and the government can take preventive measures in advance.
Topics: India; Humans; Air Pollution; Risk Assessment; Public Health; COVID-19; Forecasting; Seasons; Air Pollutants; Industry; SARS-CoV-2; Cities
PubMed: 38953809
DOI: 10.4103/ijph.ijph_279_23 -
Indian Journal of Public Health Apr 2024At the beginning of the pandemic, quarantine was thought to be the most effective way to contain the spread of the virus among international travelers and any potential...
BACKGROUND
At the beginning of the pandemic, quarantine was thought to be the most effective way to contain the spread of the virus among international travelers and any potential carriers.
OBJECTIVES
This study assessed the type of quarantine, compliance to quarantine measures (QM), mood, and any social stigma faced during that period.
MATERIALS AND METHODS
After approval from the institutional ethics committee, a telephonic interview survey was conducted. Individuals above 18 years of age visiting the only functioning COVID-19 screening outpatient department at Kasturba Hospital between March 1, 2020, and March 10, 2020 were included in the study. A total of 263 individuals were interviewed.
RESULTS
Out of 263 respondents, 71% and 34% of individuals had a history of international travel and contact history, respectively. Only 63% had read the guidelines on home QM. Among individuals quarantined, 127 that living alone in their apartments, 60 were in a single room with relatives outside, 37 were living with family members because they did not have another room, and 39 were staying in a facility quarantine center. On assessing the QM followed, wearing a mask was the least followed (46%). The average score of compliance to QM was 82.6%. Seventy-two per cent rated their mood as "5" on a scale of 1-10. Social stigma was reported by 7.6% of respondents.
CONCLUSION
Among the early set of quarantined individuals in the city during the first wave of the pandemic, average score of compliance to QM was high even though lesser people recalled reading the guideline on home QM.
Topics: Humans; COVID-19; Quarantine; Female; Male; Adult; India; Middle Aged; Social Stigma; SARS-CoV-2; Young Adult; Pandemics; Adolescent
PubMed: 38953804
DOI: 10.4103/ijph.ijph_263_23 -
Indian Journal of Public Health Apr 2024Several sporadic cases and outbreaks of Zika virus disease have been reported from different states of India.
BACKGROUND
Several sporadic cases and outbreaks of Zika virus disease have been reported from different states of India.
OBJECTIVES
This paper explored the possibility of any ongoing transmission of Zika virus (ZIKV) in the Bhopal region of Central India, where the last outbreak of this disease was reported in 2018.
MATERIALS AND METHODS
We screened a group of 75 febrile patients who had already tested negative for the locally endemic causes of fever like dengue, chikungunya, enteric fever, malaria, and scrub typhus and two groups of asymptomatic healthy individuals represented by blood donors (n = 75) and antenatal mothers (n = 75). We tested blood samples of febrile patients for ZIKV RNA using real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR), and for the healthy individuals, we determined anti-zika immunoglobulin G (IgG) antibodies using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay.
RESULTS
ZIKV RNA was not detected in any of the 75 samples tested by real-time PCR assay. Among the voluntary blood donors and antenatal mothers, a total of 10 (15.38%) and 5 (6.66%) individuals were found to be seropositive for anti-ZIKV IgG antibodies, respectively. The seropositive group was found to have higher age 33.06 (±10.83) years as compared to seronegative individuals 26.60 (±5.12) years (P = 0.037).
CONCLUSION
This study, which is the first survey of seroprevalence of anti-Zika antibodies from India, reports an overall seropositivity rate of 10% for anti-Zika antibodies among the healthy population, suggesting an ongoing, low level, silent transmission of ZIKV in the local community.
Topics: Humans; India; Zika Virus Infection; Seroepidemiologic Studies; Adult; Female; Pilot Projects; Male; Zika Virus; Immunoglobulin G; Young Adult; Antibodies, Viral; Middle Aged; RNA, Viral; Adolescent; Enzyme-Linked Immunosorbent Assay; Real-Time Polymerase Chain Reaction
PubMed: 38953800
DOI: 10.4103/ijph.ijph_1098_23 -
Journal of Virology Jul 2024Coxsackievirus B3 (CVB3) encodes proteinases that are essential for processing of the translated viral polyprotein. Viral proteinases also target host proteins to...
UNLABELLED
Coxsackievirus B3 (CVB3) encodes proteinases that are essential for processing of the translated viral polyprotein. Viral proteinases also target host proteins to manipulate cellular processes and evade innate antiviral responses to promote replication and infection. While some host protein substrates of the CVB3 3C and 2A cysteine proteinases have been identified, the full repertoire of targets is not known. Here, we utilize an unbiased quantitative proteomics-based approach termed terminal amine isotopic labeling of substrates (TAILS) to conduct a global analysis of CVB3 protease-generated N-terminal peptides in both human HeLa and mouse cardiomyocyte (HL-1) cell lines infected with CVB3. We identified >800 proteins that are cleaved in CVB3-infected HeLa and HL-1 cells including the viral polyprotein, known substrates of viral 3C proteinase such as PABP, DDX58, and HNRNPs M, K, and D and novel cellular proteins. Network and GO-term analysis showed an enrichment in biological processes including immune response and activation, RNA processing, and lipid metabolism. We validated a subset of candidate substrates that are cleaved under CVB3 infection and some are direct targets of 3C proteinase . Moreover, depletion of a subset of TAILS-identified target proteins decreased viral yield. Characterization of two target proteins showed that expression of 3C-targeted cleaved fragments of emerin and aminoacyl-tRNA synthetase complex-interacting multifunctional protein 2 modulated autophagy and the nuclear factor kappa-light-chain-enhancer of activated B cells (NF-κB) pathway, respectively. The comprehensive identification of host proteins targeted during virus infection provides insights into the cellular pathways manipulated to facilitate infection.
IMPORTANCE
RNA viruses encode proteases that are responsible for processing viral proteins into their mature form. Viral proteases also target and cleave host cellular proteins; however, the full catalog of these target proteins is incomplete. We use a technique called terminal amine isotopic labeling of substrates (TAILS), an N-terminomics to identify host proteins that are cleaved under virus infection. We identify hundreds of cellular proteins that are cleaved under infection, some of which are targeted directly by viral protease. Revealing these target proteins provides insights into the host cellular pathways and antiviral signaling factors that are modulated to promote virus infection and potentially leading to virus-induced pathogenesis.
PubMed: 38953667
DOI: 10.1128/jvi.00498-24 -
Journal of Medical Virology Jul 2024The genetic diversity of killer cell immunoglobulin-like receptors (KIRs) and human leukocyte antigen (HLA) genes influences the host's immune response to viral...
The genetic diversity of killer cell immunoglobulin-like receptors (KIRs) and human leukocyte antigen (HLA) genes influences the host's immune response to viral pathogens. This study aims to explore the impact of five single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in KIR3DL2 and HLA-A genes on hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. A total of 2251 individuals were included in the case-control study. SNPs including KIR3DL2 rs11672983, rs3745902, rs1654644, and HLA-A rs3869062, rs12202296 were genotyped. By controlling various confounding factors using a modified logistic regression model, as well as incorporating stratified analysis, joint effects analysis, and multidimensional bioinformatics analysis, we analyzed the relationship between SNPs and HCV infection. The logistic regression analysis showed a correlation between KIR3DL2 rs11672983 AA, KIR3DL2 rs3745902 TT, and increased HCV susceptibility (p < 0.01). Stratified analysis indicated that KIR3DL2 rs1654644 and HLA-A rs3869062 also heightened HCV susceptibility in certain subgroups. A linear trend of rising HCV infection rates was observed when combining KIR3DL2 rs11672983 AA and KIR3DL2 rs3745902 TT (p = 0.007). Bioinformatics analysis suggested these SNPs' regulatory potential and their role in altering messenger RNA secondary structure, implying their functional relevance in HCV susceptibility. Our findings indicate that KIR3DL2 rs11672983 AA and KIR3DL2 rs3745902 TT are significantly associated with increased susceptibility to HCV infection.
Topics: Humans; Male; Polymorphism, Single Nucleotide; Female; Case-Control Studies; Hepatitis C; Middle Aged; Genetic Predisposition to Disease; Adult; Genotype; HLA-A Antigens; Hepacivirus; Receptors, KIR; Aged; Receptors, KIR3DL2
PubMed: 38953430
DOI: 10.1002/jmv.29776 -
Journal of Medical Virology Jul 2024
Topics: Humans; COVID-19; Herpes Zoster; COVID-19 Vaccines; Recurrence; Vaccination; SARS-CoV-2; Meta-Analysis as Topic
PubMed: 38953400
DOI: 10.1002/jmv.29785