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Proceedings. Biological Sciences Mar 2024Mathematical models within the Ross-Macdonald framework increasingly play a role in our understanding of vector-borne disease dynamics and as tools for assessing...
Mathematical models within the Ross-Macdonald framework increasingly play a role in our understanding of vector-borne disease dynamics and as tools for assessing scenarios to respond to emerging threats. These threats are typically characterized by a high degree of heterogeneity, introducing a range of possible complexities in models and challenges to maintain the link with empirical evidence. We systematically identified and analysed a total of 77 published papers presenting compartmental West Nile virus (WNV) models that use parameter values derived from empirical studies. Using a set of 15 criteria, we measured the dissimilarity compared with the Ross-Macdonald framework. We also retrieved the purpose and type of models and traced the empirical sources of their parameters. Our review highlights the increasing refinements in WNV models. Models for prediction included the highest number of refinements. We found uneven distributions of refinements and of evidence for parameter values. We identified several challenges in parametrizing such increasingly complex models. For parameters common to most models, we also synthesize the empirical evidence for their values and ranges. The study highlights the potential to improve the quality of WNV models and their applicability for policy by establishing closer collaboration between mathematical modelling and empirical work.
Topics: Humans; Models, Theoretical; West Nile Fever; West Nile virus
PubMed: 38471554
DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2023.2432 -
BMC Infectious Diseases Mar 2024Dengue is caused by a positive-stranded RNA virus called dengue virus, which is spread by Aedes mosquito species. It is a fast-growing acute febrile disease with... (Meta-Analysis)
Meta-Analysis
BACKGROUND
Dengue is caused by a positive-stranded RNA virus called dengue virus, which is spread by Aedes mosquito species. It is a fast-growing acute febrile disease with potentially lethal consequences that is a global public health problem, mostly in tropical and subtropical countries. In Ethiopia, dengue fever is understudied, although the virus is still being transmitted and viral infection rates are rising. This systematic review and meta-analysis was aimed at estimating the pooled prevalence of DENV infection in Ethiopia.
METHODS
A literature search was done on the PubMed, Hinari and Google Scholar databases to identify studies published before July, 2023. Random effects and fixed effects models were used to estimate the pooled prevalence of all three markers. The Inconsistency Index was used to assess the level of heterogeneity.
RESULTS
A total of 11 studies conducted on suspected individuals with dengue fever and acutely febrile participants were included in this review. The majority of the studies had a moderate risk of bias and no study had a high risk of bias. A meta-analysis estimated a pooled IgG prevalence of 21% (95% CI: 19-23), a pooled IgM prevalence of 9% (95%CI: 4-13) and a pooled DENV-RNA prevalence of 48% (95% CI: 33-62). There is evidence of possible publication bias in IgG but not in the rest of the markers.
CONCLUSION
Dengue is prevalent among the dengue fever suspected and febrile population in Ethiopia. Healthcare providers, researchers and policymakers should give more attention to dengue fever.
Topics: Animals; Humans; Ethiopia; Aedes; Databases, Factual; Fever; Dengue; Immunoglobulin G
PubMed: 38448847
DOI: 10.1186/s12879-024-09142-1 -
Journal of Infection and Public Health Apr 2024Dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) is a severe condition resulting from the dengue virus, with four serotypes known as DEN-1, DEN-2, DEN-3, and DEN-4. Genetic variations... (Meta-Analysis)
Meta-Analysis Review
Dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) is a severe condition resulting from the dengue virus, with four serotypes known as DEN-1, DEN-2, DEN-3, and DEN-4. Genetic variations play a crucial role in influencing susceptibility to DHF. Therefore, this investigation conducted a meta-analysis to uncover genetic changes that might have remained undetected in individual studies due to small sample sizes or methodological differences. Among 2212 initially identified studies, 23 were deemed suitable for analysis based on PRISMA guidelines. Toll-like receptors (TLR) and CD209 showed significant association with DHF (odds ratios: TLR=0.56, CD209 =0.55), indicating protective effects. However, tumor necrosis factor (TNF) and human leukocyte antigen (HLA) did not exhibit a statistically significant relationship with DHF. This study emphasizes the relevance of TLR and CD209 in DHF susceptibility and resistance across diverse geographical locations.
Topics: Humans; Severe Dengue; Dengue Virus; Tumor Necrosis Factor-alpha; Serogroup; Case-Control Studies; Dengue
PubMed: 38368646
DOI: 10.1016/j.jiph.2024.02.001 -
The Lancet. Infectious Diseases May 2024Chikungunya is an arboviral disease transmitted by Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus mosquitoes with a growing global burden linked to climate change and globalisation.... (Meta-Analysis)
Meta-Analysis
Chikungunya seroprevalence, force of infection, and prevalence of chronic disability after infection in endemic and epidemic settings: a systematic review, meta-analysis, and modelling study.
BACKGROUND
Chikungunya is an arboviral disease transmitted by Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus mosquitoes with a growing global burden linked to climate change and globalisation. We aimed to estimate chikungunya seroprevalence, force of infection (FOI), and prevalence of related chronic disability and hospital admissions in endemic and epidemic settings.
METHODS
In this systematic review, meta-analysis, and modelling study, we searched PubMed, Ovid, and Web of Science for articles published from database inception until Sept 26, 2022, for prospective and retrospective cross-sectional studies that addressed serological chikungunya virus infection in any geographical region, age group, and population subgroup and for longitudinal prospective and retrospective cohort studies with data on chronic chikungunya or hospital admissions in people with chikungunya. We did a systematic review of studies on chikungunya seroprevalence and fitted catalytic models to each survey to estimate location-specific FOI (ie, the rate at which susceptible individuals acquire chikungunya infection). We performed a meta-analysis to estimate the proportion of symptomatic patients with laboratory-confirmed chikungunya who had chronic chikungunya or were admitted to hospital following infection. We used a random-effects model to assess the relationship between chronic sequelae and follow-up length using linear regression. The systematic review protocol is registered online on PROSPERO, CRD42022363102.
FINDINGS
We identified 60 studies with data on seroprevalence and chronic chikungunya symptoms done across 76 locations in 38 countries, and classified 17 (22%) of 76 locations as endemic settings and 59 (78%) as epidemic settings. The global long-term median annual FOI was 0·007 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 0·003-0·010) and varied from 0·0001 (0·00004-0·0002) to 0·113 (0·07-0·20). The highest estimated median seroprevalence at age 10 years was in south Asia (8·0% [95% UI 6·5-9·6]), followed by Latin America and the Caribbean (7·8% [4·9-14·6]), whereas median seroprevalence was lowest in the Middle East (1·0% [0·5-1·9]). We estimated that 51% (95% CI 45-58) of people with laboratory-confirmed symptomatic chikungunya had chronic disability after infection and 4% (3-5) were admitted to hospital following infection.
INTERPRETATION
We inferred subnational heterogeneity in long-term average annual FOI and transmission dynamics and identified both endemic and epidemic settings across different countries. Brazil, Ethiopia, Malaysia, and India included both endemic and epidemic settings. Long-term average annual FOI was higher in epidemic settings than endemic settings. However, long-term cumulative incidence of chikungunya can be similar between large outbreaks in epidemic settings with a high FOI and endemic settings with a relatively low FOI.
FUNDING
International Vaccine Institute.
Topics: Chikungunya Fever; Humans; Seroepidemiologic Studies; Chikungunya virus; Prevalence; Epidemics; Endemic Diseases; Adult; Disabled Persons; Male; Female
PubMed: 38342105
DOI: 10.1016/S1473-3099(23)00810-1 -
The Lancet. Global Health Mar 2024Long-term immunity following yellow fever vaccination remains controversial. We aimed to summarise the literature regarding the long-term protection (≥10 years)... (Meta-Analysis)
Meta-Analysis
BACKGROUND
Long-term immunity following yellow fever vaccination remains controversial. We aimed to summarise the literature regarding the long-term protection (≥10 years) conveyed by a single dose of yellow fever vaccination.
METHODS
In this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched 11 databases from database inception to Aug 24, 2023. We included cohort and cross-sectional studies reporting immunogenicity outcomes for children or adults who received a single dose of yellow fever vaccination 10 or more years ago. Case series and single case reports were excluded. Participants who received more than one dose of yellow fever vaccination before measurement of the outcome were excluded. Identified records were reviewed by two independent reviewers. The primary outcome of the meta-analysis was the pooled seroprotection rate. Risk of bias was assessed with the Risk Of Bias In Non-randomized Studies of Interventions tool, and the Joanna Briggs Institute tool for analytical cross-sectional studies. Studies of moderate or good quality that reported seroprotection were included for random-effects meta-analysis and stratified by endemicity and specific risk groups. The study was registered with PROSPERO, CRD42023384087.
FINDINGS
Of the 7363 articles identified by our search, 39 were eligible for inclusion for systematic review. These studies comprised 2895 individuals vaccinated 10-60 years ago. 20 studies were included in the meta-analysis. Pooled seroprotection rates were 94% (95% CI 86-99) among healthy adults in a non-endemic setting (mostly travellers) and 76% (65-85) in an endemic setting (all Brazilian studies). The pooled seroprotection rate was 47% (35-60) in children (aged 9-23 months at time of vaccination) and 61% (38-82) in people living with HIV. Reported criteria for seroprotection were highly heterogeneous.
INTERPRETATION
The gathered evidence suggests that a single dose of yellow fever vaccination provides lifelong protection in travellers. However, in people living with HIV and children (younger than 2 years), booster doses might still be required because lower proportions of vaccinees were seroprotected 10 or more years post-vaccination. Lower observed seroprotection rates among residents of endemic areas were partly explained by the use of a higher cutoff for seroprotection that was applied in Brazil. Studies from sub-Saharan Africa were scarce and of low quality; thus no conclusions could be drawn for this region.
FUNDING
None.
Topics: Child; Adult; Humans; Yellow Fever; Cross-Sectional Studies; Vaccination; Time Factors; HIV Infections
PubMed: 38272044
DOI: 10.1016/S2214-109X(23)00556-9 -
Tropical Medicine and Infectious Disease Nov 2023Powassan virus is an emerging neurotropic arbovirus transmitted by the tick This systematic review was conducted to aggregate data on its clinical manifestations,... (Review)
Review
BACKGROUND
Powassan virus is an emerging neurotropic arbovirus transmitted by the tick This systematic review was conducted to aggregate data on its clinical manifestations, diagnostic findings, and complications.
METHODS
PubMed was searched until August 2023 using the term "Powassan", to identify all published cases of Powassan virus infections, as per PRISMA guidelines.
RESULTS
Among the 380 abstracts identified, 45 studies describing 84 cases (70 adult, 14 pediatric) were included. Cases were reported from the USA and Canada. Complications included paralysis in 44.1% of adult and 42.6% of pediatric cases, cognitive deficits in 33.3% of adult and 25% of pediatric cases, while the mortality rate was 19.1% and 7.1% in the adult and pediatric populations, respectively. Correlation analysis revealed an association between mortality and age (r = 0.264, = 0.029), development of paralysis (r = 0.252, = 0.041), or respiratory distress or failure (r = 0.328, = 0.006). Factors associated with persistent neurological deficits were development of ataxia (r = 0.383, = 0.006), paralysis (r = 0.278, = 0.048), speech disorder (r = 0.319, = 0.022), and cranial nerve involvement (r = 0.322, = 0.017). Other significant correlations included those between speech disorders and ataxia (r = 0.526, < 0.001), and between paralysis and respiratory distress or failure (r = 0.349, = 0.003).
CONCLUSION
Powassan virus infections have significant morbidity and mortality and should be suspected in cases of encephalitis and possible tick exposure. PROSPERO registration number: CRD42023395991.
PubMed: 38133440
DOI: 10.3390/tropicalmed8120508 -
Journal of the American Mosquito... Dec 2023Mosquito-borne diseases (MBDs) pose a significant public health concern globally, and India, with its unique eco-sociodemographic characteristics, is particularly...
Mosquito-borne diseases (MBDs) pose a significant public health concern globally, and India, with its unique eco-sociodemographic characteristics, is particularly vulnerable to these diseases. This comprehensive review aims to provide an in-depth overview of MBDs in India, emphasizing their impact and potential implications for global health. The article explores distribution, epidemiology, control or elimination, and economic burden of the prevalent diseases such as malaria, dengue, chikungunya, Japanese encephalitis, and lymphatic filariasis, which collectively contribute to millions of cases annually. It sheds light on their profound effects on morbidity, mortality, and socioeconomic burdens and the potential for international transmission through travel and trade. The challenges and perspectives associated with controlling mosquito populations are highlighted, underscoring the importance of effective public health communication for prevention and early detection. The potential for these diseases to spread beyond national borders is recognized, necessitating a holistic approach to address the challenge. A comprehensive literature search was conducted, covering the past five decades (1972-2022), utilizing databases such as Web of Science, PubMed, and Google Scholar, in addition to in-person library consultations. The literature review analyzed 4,082 articles initially identified through various databases. After screening and eligibility assessment, 252 articles were included for analysis. The review focused on malaria, dengue, chikungunya, Japanese encephalitis, and lymphatic filariasis. The included studies focused on MBDs occurrence in India, while those conducted outside India, lacking statistical analysis, or published before 1970 were excluded. This review provides valuable insights into the status of MBDs in India and underscores the need for concerted efforts to combat these diseases on both national and global scales through consilience.
Topics: Animals; Humans; Mosquito-Borne Diseases; Elephantiasis, Filarial; Chikungunya Fever; Encephalitis, Japanese; India; Malaria; Dengue
PubMed: 38108431
DOI: 10.2987/23-7131 -
European Journal of Physical and... Feb 2024Periodic increases in West Nile virus (WNV) infections have been documented. Proper rehabilitative management is essential for these patients, who may experience...
INTRODUCTION
Periodic increases in West Nile virus (WNV) infections have been documented. Proper rehabilitative management is essential for these patients, who may experience limitations in daily activities even after the resolution of the acute infection. Since there are currently no globally accepted guidelines, our aim is to conduct a best-evidence synthesis on rehabilitative management for patients with neuroinvasive WNV.
EVIDENCE ACQUISITION
We screened the literature with two independent researchers conducting searches on PubMed, Embase, SCOPUS, and Google Scholar databases for WNV-related studies in the field of rehabilitation. Suitable studies were identified and selected through a rigorous process. The review includes original research articles published up to August 15, 2023.
EVIDENCE SYNTHESIS
Despite the potential for bias in the studies, the literature suggests that a comprehensive and interdisciplinary rehabilitation program, which includes physical therapy with neuromotor and respiratory interventions, occupational therapy, neurocognitive interventions, and speech therapy for dysphagia and communication issues, can lead to functional improvement in WNV patients. This program should be tailored to address each patient's specific challenges, and the duration of the rehabilitation program may vary depending on the individual patient's needs.
CONCLUSIONS
Even if additional research with larger cohorts and higher evidence levels is needed for a comprehensive understanding of WNV patient rehabilitation, an early and comprehensive rehabilitation approach addressing respiratory, neuromuscular, and cognitive aspects appears effective for WNV patient recovery.
Topics: Humans; West Nile virus; West Nile Fever; Physical Therapy Modalities; Occupational Therapy; Speech Therapy
PubMed: 38059575
DOI: 10.23736/S1973-9087.23.07880-2 -
PloS One 2023In Africa, little is known about the role of telephone hotlines in outbreak response. We systematically reviewed the role and effectiveness of hotlines on outbreak... (Meta-Analysis)
Meta-Analysis
BACKGROUND
In Africa, little is known about the role of telephone hotlines in outbreak response. We systematically reviewed the role and effectiveness of hotlines on outbreak response in Africa.
METHOD
We used the Cochrane handbook and searched five databases. The protocol was registered on PROSPERO (CRD42021247141). Medline, Embase, PsycINFO, Global Health and Web of Science were searched from 30 June 2020 to August 2020 for studies on the use of telephone hotlines in outbreak response in Africa published between January 1995 and August 2020. The search was also repeated on 16 September 2022. Data on effectiveness (alerts generated, cases confirmed) were extracted from peer-reviewed studies. Meta-analysis of alerts generated, and proportion of cases confirmed was done using the random effects model. The quality of studies was assessed using the Joanna Briggs Institute (JBI) tools. The heterogeneity and publication bias were assessed using the Galbraith and funnel plots, respectively.
RESULTS
Our search yielded 1251 non-duplicate citations that were assessed. 41 full texts were identified, and 21 studies were included in the narrative synthesis, while 12 were included in the meta-analysis. The hotlines were local (seven studies) or national (three studies). A combination of a local and national hotline was used in one study. The hotlines were set up for unusual respiratory events (one study), polio (one study), Ebola (10 studies), COVID-19 (two studies), malaria (one study), influenza-like illnesses (ILI) (one study) and rift valley fever in livestock (one study). Hotlines were mainly used for outbreak surveillance at the local level. A total of 332,323 alerts were generated, and 67,658 met the case definition, corresponding to an overall pooled proportion of alerts generated(sensitivity) of 38% (95%CI: 24-52%). The sensitivity was 41% (95% CI: 24-59%) for local hotlines and 26%(95%CI:5-47%) for national hotlines. Hotlines were also used for surveillance of rift valley fever in livestock (one study) vaccination promotion (one study), death reporting (five studies), rumour tracking and fighting misinformation (two studies) and community engagement (five studies). The studies were of low to moderate quality with high publication bias and heterogeneity(I2 = 99%). The heterogeneity was not explained by the sample size.
CONCLUSION
These data suggest that telephone hotlines can be effective in outbreak disease surveillance in Africa. Further implementation research is needed to scale up telephone hotlines in rural areas.
Topics: Humans; Animals; Hotlines; Rift Valley Fever; Disease Outbreaks; Virus Diseases; Africa
PubMed: 38019849
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0292085 -
PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases Nov 2023Neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) affect most impoverished communities in developing countries, like Myanmar in Southeast Asia. NTDs have been understudied and...
BACKGROUND
Neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) affect most impoverished communities in developing countries, like Myanmar in Southeast Asia. NTDs have been understudied and underreported in Myanmar.
METHODS
A systematic review of published and grey literature (1900-2023) on neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) in Myanmar was conducted. The literature search included five international databases: PubMed, EMBASE, Ovid Global Health, and Web of Science Core Collection and one national database: the Myanmar Central Biomedical Library (locally published papers and grey literature). The selection criteria included articles with all types of study designs of current or previous infections conducted in humans, that reported NTDs, recognised by WHO, US CDC, and listed in PLoS NTDs. We included melioidosis and rickettsioses which we consider also meet the definition of an NTD.
RESULTS
A total of 5941 records were retrieved and screened, of which, 672 (11%) met the selection criteria and were included in this review. Of the included articles, 449 (65%) were published after 2000 and 369 (55%) were from two regions (Yangon and Mandalay) of Myanmar. Of the included articles, 238 (35%) reported bacterial NTDs, 212 (32%) viral NTDs, 153 (23%) helminth NTDs, 25 (4%) protozoal NTDs and 39 (6%) reported more than one aetiology. Based on reported frequency in descending order, the bacterial NTDs were leprosy, Escherichia coli enteritis, salmonellosis, cholera, shigellosis, melioidosis, leptospirosis and rickettsioses; the viral NTDs were dengue, chikungunya and Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) infection; the protozoal NTDs were amoebiasis, giardiasis and leishmaniasis, and the helminth NTDs were ascariasis, trichuriasis, hookworm disease, filariasis and strongyloidiasis.
CONCLUSION
This review summarises NTDs reported in Myanmar over the past 100 years. The findings suggest that most NTDs are likely to be under reported, especially from the majority of the country which is far from academic centres. Research capacity building together with strengthening of laboratory systems would lead to better understanding of the true burden of NTDs in Myanmar.
TRIAL REGISTRATION
PROSPERO registration ID: CRD42018092627.
Topics: Animals; Humans; Myanmar; Melioidosis; Ascariasis; Helminths; Neglected Diseases; Tropical Medicine; Encephalitis, Japanese; Rickettsia Infections
PubMed: 37910592
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0011706