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CPT: Pharmacometrics & Systems... Sep 2023Progression-free survival (PFS) is an important clinical metric for comparing and evaluating similar treatments for the same disease within oncology. After the...
Progression-free survival (PFS) is an important clinical metric for comparing and evaluating similar treatments for the same disease within oncology. After the completion of a clinical trial, a descriptive analysis of the patients' PFS is often performed post hoc using the Kaplan-Meier estimator. However, to perform predictions, more sophisticated quantitative methods are needed. Tumor growth inhibition models are commonly used to describe and predict the dynamics of preclinical and clinical tumor size data. Moreover, frameworks also exist for describing the probability of different types of events, such as tumor metastasis or patient dropout. Combining these two types of models into a so-called joint model enables model-based prediction of PFS. In this paper, we have constructed a joint model from clinical data comparing the efficacy of FOLFOX against FOLFOX + panitumumab in patients with metastatic colorectal cancer. The nonlinear mixed effects framework was used to quantify interindividual variability (IIV). The model describes tumor size and PFS data well, and showed good predictive capabilities using truncated as well as external data. A machine-learning guided analysis was performed to reduce unexplained IIV by incorporating patient covariates. The model-based approach illustrated in this paper could be useful to help design clinical trials or to determine new promising drug candidates for combination therapy trials.
Topics: Humans; Progression-Free Survival; Combined Modality Therapy; Antineoplastic Combined Chemotherapy Protocols
PubMed: 37300376
DOI: 10.1002/psp4.13003 -
The Oncologist Jul 2023We previously reported the response rate of a phase II OGSG1602 study on panitumumab in chemotherapy-naive frail or elderly patients with RAS wild-type unresectable...
BACKGROUND
We previously reported the response rate of a phase II OGSG1602 study on panitumumab in chemotherapy-naive frail or elderly patients with RAS wild-type unresectable colorectal cancer (CRC) [Terazawa T, Kato T, Goto M, et al. Oncologist. 2021;26(1):17]. Herein, we report a survival analysis.
METHODS
Patients aged ≥65 years and considered unsuitable for intensive chemotherapy or aged ≥76 years were enrolled. Primary tumors located from the cecum to the transverse colon were considered right-sided tumors (RSTs); those located from the splenic flexure to the rectum were considered left-sided tumors (LSTs).
RESULTS
Among the 36 enrolled patients, 34 were included in the efficacy analysis, with 26 and 8 having LSTs and RSTs, respectively. The median progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) were 6.0 [95% CI, 5.4-10.0] and 17.5 months (95% CI, 13.8-24.3), respectively. Although no significant differences existed in PFS between patients with LST and RST {6.6 (95% CI, 5.4-11.5) vs. 4.9 months [95% CI, 1.9-not available (NA), P = .120]}, there were significant differences in OS [19.3 (95% CI, 14.2-NA) vs.12.3 months (95% CI, 9.9-NA), P = .043].
CONCLUSION
Panitumumab showed favorable OS in frail or elderly patients with RAS wild-type CRC and no prior exposure to chemotherapy. Panitumumab may be optimal for patients with LSTs (UMIN Clinical Trials Registry Number UMIN000024528).
Topics: Aged; Humans; Panitumumab; Frail Elderly; Colorectal Neoplasms; Progression-Free Survival; Survival Analysis; Antineoplastic Combined Chemotherapy Protocols; Fluorouracil
PubMed: 35947993
DOI: 10.1093/oncolo/oyac145