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Epidemiology (Cambridge, Mass.) Jan 2010The performance of prediction models can be assessed using a variety of methods and metrics. Traditional measures for binary and survival outcomes include the Brier...
The performance of prediction models can be assessed using a variety of methods and metrics. Traditional measures for binary and survival outcomes include the Brier score to indicate overall model performance, the concordance (or c) statistic for discriminative ability (or area under the receiver operating characteristic [ROC] curve), and goodness-of-fit statistics for calibration.Several new measures have recently been proposed that can be seen as refinements of discrimination measures, including variants of the c statistic for survival, reclassification tables, net reclassification improvement (NRI), and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI). Moreover, decision-analytic measures have been proposed, including decision curves to plot the net benefit achieved by making decisions based on model predictions.We aimed to define the role of these relatively novel approaches in the evaluation of the performance of prediction models. For illustration, we present a case study of predicting the presence of residual tumor versus benign tissue in patients with testicular cancer (n = 544 for model development, n = 273 for external validation).We suggest that reporting discrimination and calibration will always be important for a prediction model. Decision-analytic measures should be reported if the predictive model is to be used for clinical decisions. Other measures of performance may be warranted in specific applications, such as reclassification metrics to gain insight into the value of adding a novel predictor to an established model.
Topics: Epidemiologic Studies; Models, Statistical; Prognosis; ROC Curve; Reproducibility of Results; Risk Assessment
PubMed: 20010215
DOI: 10.1097/EDE.0b013e3181c30fb2 -
Cardiovascular Diabetology Jun 2022Recent studies have suggested that triglyceride-glucose (TyG) index is an independent predictor of cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, the impact of long-term...
BACKGROUND
Recent studies have suggested that triglyceride-glucose (TyG) index is an independent predictor of cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, the impact of long-term visit-to-visit variability in TyG index on the risk of CVD is not known. We aimed to investigate the longitudinal association between baseline and mean TyG index as well as TyG index variability and incident CVD in a Chinese population.
METHODS
We included 49,579 participants without previous history of CVD in the Kailuan study who underwent three health examinations (2006, 2008, and 2010) and were followed up for clinical events until 2019. TyG index was calculated as Ln [fasting triglyceride (mg/dL) × fasting glucose (mg/dL)/2]. We measured TyG index variability as the SD of the residuals obtained from a linear regression on the three TyG index measurements for each individual. Multivariate-adjusted Cox models were used to estimate the adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) with incident CVD.
RESULTS
During a median follow-up time of 9.0 years, 2404 developed CVD. The highest tertile (T3) of baseline and mean TyG index were each associated with higher CVD incidence as compared with the lowest tertile (T1): aHR, 1.25; 95% CI 1.11-1.42; and aHR 1.40; 95% CI 1.24-1.58, respectively. Tertile 3 of TyG index variability was associated with increased CVD incidence compared to T1 group (aHR, 1.12; 95% CI 1.01-1.24). Similar findings were observed in a series of sensitivity analyses.
CONCLUSION
Higher TyG index level and greater TyGindex variability were each independently associated with a higher incidence of CVD.
Topics: Biomarkers; Blood Glucose; Cardiovascular Diseases; Glucose; Humans; Prospective Studies; Risk Assessment; Risk Factors; Triglycerides
PubMed: 35689232
DOI: 10.1186/s12933-022-01541-5 -
Journal of Atherosclerosis and... Oct 2022
Topics: Cholesterol, HDL; Cholesterol, LDL; Humans; Risk Factors
PubMed: 34955466
DOI: 10.5551/jat.ED187 -
Current Atherosclerosis Reports May 2022Recent studies indicate an association between hypertriglyceridemia (HTG) and atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). The purpose of this review is to discuss... (Review)
Review
PURPOSE OF REVIEW
Recent studies indicate an association between hypertriglyceridemia (HTG) and atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). The purpose of this review is to discuss the potential mechanism connecting HTG and ASCVD risk and the potential efficacy of HTG-targeting therapies in ASCVD prevention.
RECENT FINDINGS
HTG, with elevations in triglyceride-rich lipoproteins (TGRL) and their remnants, are causal ASCVD risk factors. The mechanisms whereby HTG increases ASCVD risk are not well understood but may include multiple factors. Inflammation plays a crucial role in atherosclerosis. TGRL compared to low-density lipoproteins (LDL) correlate better with inflammation. TGRL remnants can penetrate endothelium and interact with macrophages leading to foam cell formation and inflammation in arterial walls, thereby contributing to atherogenesis. In addition, circulating monocytes can take up TGRL and become lipid-laden foamy monocytes, which infiltrate the arterial wall and may also contribute to atherogenesis. Novel therapies targeting HTG or inflammation are in development and have potential of reducing residual ASCVD risk associated with HTG. Clinical and preclinical studies show a causal role of HTG in promoting ASCVD, in which inflammation plays a vital role. Novel therapies targeting HTG or inflammation have potential of reducing residual ASCVD risk.
Topics: Atherosclerosis; Humans; Hyperlipidemias; Hypertriglyceridemia; Inflammation; Risk Factors; Triglycerides
PubMed: 35274230
DOI: 10.1007/s11883-022-01006-w -
Diabetes Care Sep 2022Remnant cholesterol (remnant-C) predicts atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, regardless of LDL-cholesterol (LDL-C) levels. This study assessed the associations...
OBJECTIVE
Remnant cholesterol (remnant-C) predicts atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, regardless of LDL-cholesterol (LDL-C) levels. This study assessed the associations between remnant-C and cardiovascular outcomes in type 2 diabetes.
RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS
This post hoc analysis of the Action to Control Cardiovascular Risk in Diabetes (ACCORD) trial used patient (type 2 diabetes >3 months) remnant-C and major adverse cardiovascular event (MACE) data from the study database. The associations between remnant-C and MACEs were evaluated using Cox proportional hazards regression analyses. We examined the relative MACE risk in remnant-C versus LDL-C discordant/concordant groups using clinically relevant LDL-C targets by discordance analyses.
RESULTS
The baseline analysis included 10,196 participants, with further visit-to-visit variability analysis including 9,650 participants. During follow-up (median, 8.8 years), 1,815 patients (17.8%) developed MACEs. After adjusting for traditional cardiovascular risk factors, each 1-SD increase in remnant-C was associated with a 7% higher MACE risk (hazard ratio [HR] 1.07, 95% CI 1.02-1.12, P = 0.004). In the fully adjusted model, the visit-to-visit remnant-C variability calculated using logSD (HR 1.41, 95% CI 1.18-1.69, P < 0.001) and logARV (HR 1.45, 95% CI 1.22-1.73, P < 0.001) was associated with MACEs. Residual lipid risk (remnant-C ≥31 mg/dL) recognized individuals at a higher MACE risk, regardless of LDL-C concentrations. Within each LDL-C subgroup (>100 or ≤100 mg/dL), high baseline remnant-C was associated with a higher MACE risk (HR 1.37, 95% CI 1.09-1.73, P = 0.007; HR 1.22, 95% CI 1.04-1.41, P = 0.015, respectively).
CONCLUSIONS
Remnant-C levels were associated with MACEs in patients with type 2 diabetes independent of LDL-C, and visit-to-visit remnant-C variability helped identify those with higher cardiovascular risk.
Topics: Cardiovascular Diseases; Cholesterol; Cholesterol, LDL; Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2; Heart Disease Risk Factors; Humans; Risk Factors
PubMed: 35834242
DOI: 10.2337/dc21-2511 -
Molecular and Cellular Biochemistry Dec 2023Atherosclerotic disease of the coronary and carotid arteries is the primary global cause of significant mortality and morbidity. The chronic occlusive diseases have... (Review)
Review
Atherosclerotic disease of the coronary and carotid arteries is the primary global cause of significant mortality and morbidity. The chronic occlusive diseases have changed the epidemiological landscape of health problems both in developed and the developing countries. Despite the enormous benefit of advanced revascularization techniques, use of statins, and successful attempts of targeting modifiable risk factors, like smoking and exercise in the last four decades, there is still a definite "residual risk" in the population, as evidenced by many prevalent and new cases every year. Here, we highlight the burden of the atherosclerotic diseases and provide substantial clinical evidence of the residual risks in these diseases despite advanced management settings, with emphasis on strokes and cardiovascular risks. We critically discussed the concepts and potential underlying mechanisms of the evolving atherosclerotic plaques in the coronary and carotid arteries. This has changed our understanding of the plaque biology, the progression of unstable vs stable plaques, and the evolution of plaque prior to the occurrence of a major adverse atherothrombotic event. This has been facilitated using intravascular ultrasound, optical coherence tomography, and near-infrared spectroscopy in the clinical settings to achieve surrogate end points. These techniques are now providing exquisite information on plaque size, composition, lipid volume, fibrous cap thickness and other features that were previously not possible with conventional angiography.
Topics: Humans; Plaque, Atherosclerotic; Atherosclerosis; Carotid Arteries; Stroke; Risk Factors; Coronary Artery Disease
PubMed: 36897542
DOI: 10.1007/s11010-023-04689-0 -
Orthopaedics & Traumatology, Surgery &... Feb 2022Foot and hallux valgus surgery are amongst the most commonly performed surgeries, with a growing number of procedures leading to litigation. The aim of this conference... (Review)
Review
Foot and hallux valgus surgery are amongst the most commonly performed surgeries, with a growing number of procedures leading to litigation. The aim of this conference is to provide an update on the causes of malpractice claims and the associated risk factors. What are the causes of litigation? Acute or chronic residual pain, stiffness, metatarsalgia, consolidation delays, secondary displacements, suboptimal results are the most common causes found in litigious proceedings. What are the risk factors? Surgeon-related and patient-related risk factors exist. Percutaneous surgery or the development of outpatient hospitalization are not specific risk factors. From the point of view of practitioners, the application and traceability of recommendations for antibiotic prophylaxis, for thromboembolic disease, or for the checklist are essential, allowing causes of blame to be easily avoided. Information is fundamental. Since the Law of the 4th of March 2002, the surgeon-patient relationship has changed. Pre-operative information archived in the practitioner's file is essential. This includes written and oral information which is consented to and understood by the patient. Thus, the understanding and compliance with immediate post-operative instructions or adherence to the post-operative program are success factors regarding the surgical outcome. The patient must also be informed and aware of their own individual risk factors (e.g. smoking and immunosuppression, particularly) which require greater caution. What is the best way to reduce the risk of these claims being made? It is about traceability: traceability of clinical examination, procedures, information and exchanges with the patient. It is only under this principle that the surgeon-patient relationship can be clearer, respectful and consequently less conducive to litigation. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: V; expert opinion.
Topics: Hallux Valgus; Humans; Malpractice; Risk Factors; Surgeons
PubMed: 34838752
DOI: 10.1016/j.otsr.2021.103152 -
Nutrition, Metabolism, and... Jul 2017To address potential controversies on the health benefits of the Mediterranean diet (MedDiet) after PREDIMED, a randomized trial of MedDiet for primary cardiovascular... (Randomized Controlled Trial)
Randomized Controlled Trial
AIMS
To address potential controversies on the health benefits of the Mediterranean diet (MedDiet) after PREDIMED, a randomized trial of MedDiet for primary cardiovascular prevention. We have focused on: a) the PREDIMED study design, b) analysis of PREDIMED data and c) interpretation of its results.
DATA SYNTHESIS
Regarding the design of the trial, its early termination and between-group differences in the intensity of the intervention are potential causes of concern. The planned duration was 6 years but the trial was prematurely stopped when an interim analysis at 4.8-year provided sufficient evidence of benefit for the two MedDiets. In the MedDiet groups supplemented with extra-virgin olive oil or mixed-nuts, the primary composite endpoint (myocardial infarction, stroke, or cardiovascular death) was reduced by 30% and 28% respectively, as compared with the control group. Final results did not change after taking into account the different intensity of educational efforts during the trial. Other potential doubts related to data analysis (e.g., intention to treat versus a per-protocol approach, and consequences of dropouts) should not be causes of concern. Finally, we addressed alternative interpretations of the effect on all-cause mortality. The protocol-defined primary endpoint was a composite cardiovascular endpoint, not all-cause mortality. To analyze total mortality, we would have needed a much larger sample size and longer follow-up. Therefore, the PREDIMED results cannot be used to draw firm conclusions on MedDiets and all-cause mortality.
CONCLUSIONS
The PREDIMED study was designed to overcome three major problems of previous nutritional research: a) residual confounding, addressed by using a randomized design; b) single-nutrient approaches, by randomizing an overall dietary pattern; and c) the limitations of assessing only intermediate risk markers, by using hard clinical end-points.
Topics: Cardiovascular Diseases; Cause of Death; Diet, Healthy; Diet, Mediterranean; Early Termination of Clinical Trials; Endpoint Determination; Evidence-Based Medicine; Feeding Behavior; Health Status; Humans; Intention to Treat Analysis; Kaplan-Meier Estimate; Protective Factors; Research Design; Risk Assessment; Risk Factors; Risk Reduction Behavior; Sample Size; Time Factors
PubMed: 28684083
DOI: 10.1016/j.numecd.2017.05.004 -
American Family Physician Feb 2011A previous venous thromboembolism is the most important risk factor for predicting recurrence of the condition. Several studies have shown that routine testing for... (Review)
Review
A previous venous thromboembolism is the most important risk factor for predicting recurrence of the condition. Several studies have shown that routine testing for inherited thrombophilias is not helpful in predicting the risk of recurrence or altering treatment decisions, and therefore is not cost-effective. Updated practice guidelines from the American College of Chest Physicians shift the focus away from laboratory testing and place stronger emphasis on identifying clinical factors when making treatment decisions. The major determinants for treatment duration are whether the deep venous thrombosis was located in a distal or proximal vein, whether the thrombotic episode was an initial or recurrent event, and whether transient risk factors were present. Persistent elevations on the D-dimer test or the presence of residual thrombosis may provide further information to predict recurrence risk and determine treatment duration. Screening for antiphospholipid syndrome and/or malignancy should be considered in patients presenting with arterial thrombosis, thrombosis at an unusual site, or recurrent pregnancy loss. Patients with venous thromboembolism and a known malignancy should be treated with low-molecular-weight heparin rather than oral anticoagulation as long as the cancer is active. All patients with recurrent, unprovoked venous thromboembolism should be considered for long-term treatment.
Topics: Anticoagulants; Humans; Recurrence; Risk Factors; Venous Thromboembolism
PubMed: 21302870
DOI: No ID Found -
Cardiovascular Diabetology Apr 2023Randomized controlled trials confirm that risks of residual cholesterol and residual inflammation remains in patients with cardiovascular disease (CVD) even after...
BACKGROUND
Randomized controlled trials confirm that risks of residual cholesterol and residual inflammation remains in patients with cardiovascular disease (CVD) even after lipid-lowering therapy. This study aims to investigate the association between dual residual risk of cholesterol and inflammation and all-cause mortality in a real-world population with CVD.
METHODS
Patients with a CVD history who first took statins between 1 January 2010 and 31 December 2017 in the Kailuan Study were selected as study participants. According to low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) and hypersensitive C-reactive protein levels, patients were divided into those with no residual risk, residual inflammatory risk (RIR), residual cholesterol risk (RCR), and residual cholesterol and inflammatory risk (RCIR). Cox proportional hazard model was conducted to determine hazard ratio (HR) of all-cause mortality for RIR, RCR, and RCIR. Stratified analysis was conducted according to good medication adherence and 75% of the percentage LDL-C decline, high SMART 2 risk score, and blood pressure and blood glucose at standard levels.
RESULTS
After 6.10 years of follow-up, 377 all-cause deaths occurred in 3509 participants (mean age 63.69 ± 8.41 years, 86.78% men). After adjusting for related risk factors, the HR and (95% confidence interval [CI]) of all-cause mortality in the RIR, RCR, and RCIR was 1.63 (1.05, 2.52), 1.37 (0.98, 1.90), and 1.75 (1.25, 2.46), compared with no residual risk. Similar associations were observed in participants with moderate or low statin compliance, a lower percentage of LDL-C decline, high SMART 2 risk score, uncontrolled blood pressure, and uncontrolled blood glucose, in the RCIR had a 1.66-fold, 2.08-fold, 1.69-fold, 2.04-fold, and 2.05-fold higher risk of all-cause mortality, respectively, than the reference.
CONCLUSION
Risks of residual cholesterol and residual inflammation remain in patients with CVD after receiving statins, and their combined effect significantly increases the risk of all-cause mortality. Here, this increased risk was dependent on statin compliance, LDL-C reduction, SMART 2 risk score, and blood pressure and blood glucose control.
Topics: Male; Humans; Middle Aged; Aged; Female; Hydroxymethylglutaryl-CoA Reductase Inhibitors; Cardiovascular Diseases; Cholesterol, LDL; Blood Glucose; Cholesterol; Risk Factors; Inflammation
PubMed: 37095492
DOI: 10.1186/s12933-023-01826-3