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Value in Health : the Journal of the... May 2018From a disease's first description to its wider recognition, factors such as changes over time in diagnostic criteria, available therapies, and subsequent mortality...
BACKGROUND
From a disease's first description to its wider recognition, factors such as changes over time in diagnostic criteria, available therapies, and subsequent mortality rates may influence diagnosed prevalence of rare diseases.
OBJECTIVES
To propose a novel methodology for estimating the true prevalence of rare diseases using current incidence adjusted to changing diagnostic practice over time. This article focuses on rare diseases whose diagnosis may have changed over time, and raises the hypothesis that prevalence calculated from current incidence may be higher than diagnosed prevalence, which may lag behind the current disease definition and diagnostic methods. A rare epileptic encephalopathy, Dravet syndrome (DS), is explored as an illustrative example.
METHODS
A targeted literature review was performed for DS to identify all reported incidence, prevalence, and mortality and depict how diagnostic practice has evolved over time. A conceptual model was developed to calculate prevalence derived from current incidence figures alone (incidence-derived prevalence) or incidence adjusted with factors that cause a diagnostic drag (diagnostic awareness-adjusted prevalence).
RESULTS
We identified sufficient publications of incidence and prevalence to test the conceptual model. For pediatric patients with DS, diagnosed prevalence in the field (as reported in current literature) matches incidence-derived prevalence, whereas for adult patients, it is overestimated by incidence-derived prevalence, but not by diagnostic awareness-adjusted prevalence.
CONCLUSIONS
Care should be taken with current incidence-derived prevalence figures to not overstate the prevalence in rare diseases, as methodological challenges in counting small populations, coupled with advances in rare disease discovery, may cause discrepancies.
Topics: Epilepsies, Myoclonic; Humans; Incidence; Models, Statistical; Prevalence; Rare Diseases; Risk Factors
PubMed: 29753345
DOI: 10.1016/j.jval.2018.03.002 -
Journal of Mathematical Biology Mar 2023In this paper, we propose a two-patch SIRS model with a nonlinear incidence rate: [Formula: see text] and nonconstant dispersal rates, where the dispersal rates of...
In this paper, we propose a two-patch SIRS model with a nonlinear incidence rate: [Formula: see text] and nonconstant dispersal rates, where the dispersal rates of susceptible and recovered individuals depend on the relative disease prevalence in two patches. In an isolated environment, the model admits Bogdanov-Takens bifurcation of codimension 3 (cusp case) and Hopf bifurcation of codimension up to 2 as the parameters vary, and exhibits rich dynamics such as multiple coexistent steady states and periodic orbits, homoclinic orbits and multitype bistability. The long-term dynamics can be classified in terms of the infection rates [Formula: see text] (due to single contact) and [Formula: see text] (due to double exposures). In a connected environment, we establish a threshold [Formula: see text] between disease extinction and uniform persistence under certain conditions. We numerically explore the effect of population dispersal on disease spread when [Formula: see text] and patch 1 has a lower infection rate, our results indicate: (i) [Formula: see text] can be nonmonotonic in dispersal rates and [Formula: see text] ([Formula: see text] is the basic reproduction number of patch i) may fail; (ii) the constant dispersal of susceptible individuals (or infective individuals) between two patches (or from patch 2 to patch 1) will increase (or reduce) the overall disease prevalence; (iii) the relative prevalence-based dispersal may reduce the overall disease prevalence. When [Formula: see text] and the disease outbreaks periodically in each isolated patch, we find that: (a) small unidirectional and constant dispersal can lead to complex periodic patterns like relaxation oscillations or mixed-mode oscillations, whereas large ones can make the disease go extinct in one patch and persist in the form of a positive steady state or a periodic solution in the other patch; (b) relative prevalence-based and unidirectional dispersal can make periodic outbreak earlier.
Topics: Humans; Prevalence; Epidemics; Disease Outbreaks; Basic Reproduction Number; Epidemiological Models
PubMed: 36877332
DOI: 10.1007/s00285-023-01887-8 -
BMC Public Health Dec 2023Despite several strategies exist for anemia prevention and control, it has been the major public health important problem in the world. Numerous immediate and long-term... (Meta-Analysis)
Meta-Analysis
INTRODUCTION
Despite several strategies exist for anemia prevention and control, it has been the major public health important problem in the world. Numerous immediate and long-term health issues were reported in children who have history of anemia including decreased work productivity in adult hood period. Although analyzing data on burden and risk factors of anemia are the recommended action areas of World Health Organization framework for accelerating anemia reduction, the aggregated national burden and contributors of anemia in Ethiopia has not been determined so far. There for, this systematic and meta-analysis study is aimed to assess the pooled prevalence and associated factors of anemia among children aged 6-23 months in Ethiopia.
METHODS
The electronic databases including PubMed, Scopus, EMBASE, Web of Science, Science Direct, Google scholar and institutional repositories were searched using search terms. The studies that reported the prevalence and/or risk factors of anemia in children 6-23 months of age were included. The JBI quality assessment tool was used to evaluate the quality of each study. The data was extracted with Microsoft Excel, 2019 and analyzed with STATA 17.0 statistical software. A random effect model was used to estimate the pooled prevalence of anemia and its associated factors. The Cochrane Q-test statistics and I test were used to measure heterogeneity between the included studies. Furthermore, publication bias was examined using the funnel plot graph and statistical tests (Egger's and begg tests). Outliers also visualized using Galbraith plot. When necessary, sensitivity analysis was also employed to detect small study effect.
RESULT
Ten studies with a total population of 14, 733 were included for analysis. The pooled prevalence of anemia among children aged 6-23 months of age in Ethiopia was found to be 57.76% (95%CI; 51.61-63.91; I = 97.192%; p < 0.001). Having history of diarrhea AOR = 2.44 (95%CI: 1.03-3.85), being stunted AOR = 2.00 (95%CI: 1.38-2.61), living in food insecure house hold AOR = 2.08 (95%CI: 1.10-3.07), consuming less diversified food AOR = 2.73 (95%CI: 2.06-3.39) and being 6-11 months of age AOR = 1.59 (95%CI: 1.23-1.95) were associated with anemia.
CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION
The prevalence of anemia is in the range of severe public health problem among children aged 6-23 months in Ethiopia. Diarrhea, stunting, house hold food insecurity, dietary diversity, and age were the predictors of anemia. Further, prospective cohort and random controlled trial studies are recommended. Further, random controlled trial especially effectiveness of nutritional education interventions trial is important. To reduce prevalence of anemia, strengthening diarrhea reduction program, securing household food insecurity, preventing stunting, giving special attention for infants age 6-11 months and encouraging food diversification are important.
Topics: Infant; Humans; Child; Ethiopia; Prevalence; Prospective Studies; Anemia; Diarrhea; Growth Disorders
PubMed: 38042804
DOI: 10.1186/s12889-023-17330-y -
Journal of Nursing Scholarship : An... Jul 2022Falls are a highly prevalent problem in hospitals and nursing homes with serious negative consequences such as injuries, increased care dependency, or even death. The...
PURPOSE
Falls are a highly prevalent problem in hospitals and nursing homes with serious negative consequences such as injuries, increased care dependency, or even death. The aim of this study was to provide a comprehensive insight into institution-acquired fall (IAF) prevalence and risk factors for IAF in a large sample of hospital patients and nursing home residents among five different countries.
DESIGN
This study reports the outcome of a secondary data analysis of cross-sectional data collected in Austria, Switzerland, the Netherlands, Turkey, and the United Kingdom in 2017 and 2018. These data include 58,319 datapoints from hospital patients and nursing home residents.
METHODS
Descriptive statistics, statistical tests, logistic regression, and generalized estimating equation (GEE) models were used to analyze the data.
FINDINGS
IAF prevalence in hospitals and nursing homes differed significantly between the countries. Turkey (7.7%) had the highest IAF prevalence rate for hospitals, and Switzerland (15.8%) had the highest IAF prevalence rate for nursing homes. In hospitals, our model revealed that IAF prevalence was associated with country, age, care dependency, number of medical diagnoses, surgery in the last two weeks, and fall history factors. In nursing homes, care dependency, diseases of the nervous system, and fall history were identified as significant risk factors for IAF prevalence.
CONCLUSIONS
This large-scale study reveals that the most important IAF risk factor is an existing history of falls, independent of the setting. Whether a previous fall has occurred within the last 12 months is a simple question that should be included on every (nursing) assessment at the time of patient or resident admission. Our results guide the development of tailored prevention programs for persons at risk of falling in hospitals and nursing homes.
Topics: Aged; Cross-Sectional Studies; Geriatric Assessment; Homes for the Aged; Humans; Infant, Newborn; Prevalence; Risk Factors
PubMed: 34919335
DOI: 10.1111/jnu.12758 -
European Journal of Paediatric Dentistry Mar 2022Dental malocclusions present the third-highest prevalence among oral pathologies. The occlusion is evaluated in primary, mixed and permanent dentition. Most orthodontic...
AIM
Dental malocclusions present the third-highest prevalence among oral pathologies. The occlusion is evaluated in primary, mixed and permanent dentition. Most orthodontic patients are treated in the early permanent dentition. Early detection of dental anomalies is important to prevent complications and can have short- and long-term benefits. The aepidemiological data on the prevalence of malocclusion are an important determinant in planning appropriate orthodontic services. Dentists have the responsibility to recognise, diagnose, and treat or refer anomalies. Data from previous studies showed that the incidence of malocclusions expands from 11% to 93%. The aim of the study is to find out the prevalence and types of malocclusions in schoolchildren during four school years and how they were registered by four general dentists in their offices.
METHODS
The research was conducted over four consecutive school years during systematic examinations of schoolchildren from 1st to 9th grade. All primary schools (15 schools) in the area of Health Center Murska Sobota, Slovenia were included in the study. Dentists registered the presence and type of malocclusion. They prepared statistical data on the percentage of children with malocclusion and the percentage of represented malocclusion, as well as the statistical difference between genders.
CONCLUSION
There is a high percentage of malocclusion in 9th graders (15-year-old), about 50%, and a low number of children undergoing orthodontic therapy.
Topics: Adolescent; Child; Dentition, Permanent; Female; Humans; Male; Malocclusion; Prevalence; Prospective Studies; Slovenia
PubMed: 35274541
DOI: 10.23804/ejpd.2022.23.01.07 -
Medicine Aug 2020Ocular trauma is a common eye disease and one of the main causes of blindness. There is a dearth of data on a summary and meta-analysis on the global epidemiology of the...
BACKGROUND
Ocular trauma is a common eye disease and one of the main causes of blindness. There is a dearth of data on a summary and meta-analysis on the global epidemiology of the disease. Therefore, this systematic review protocol aims to propose the first systematic review and meta-analysis to synthesize existing evidence on the global prevalence and associated factors of ocular trauma worldwide.
METHODS
A systematic search will be performed according to the following databases: PubMed, Web of Science, Chinese National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI), Weipu, and Wanfang. Cross-sectional, case-control, and cohort studies reporting on the prevalence and risk factors of ocular trauma will be included. The primary outcome will be the prevalence in global, regional, and national ocular trauma. Study searching, data extraction, and quality evaluation will be performed by 2 reviewers, independently. Appropriate meta-analysis will then be used to pool studies. STATA software package v 12.0 (Stata Corporation, College Station, TX) and R (version 3.4.1; R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria) software will be used for all statistical analyses.
RESULTS
This study will provide a high-quality synthesis to examine the prevalence and associated factors of ocular trauma worldwide. Furthermore, current study will project disease estimates in the next 50 years.
CONCLUSION
This systematic review and meta-analysis will provide first evidence to evaluate the burden of ocular trauma in the general population.
ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION
This systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials does not require ethical recognition, and the results of this paper will be published in an open access, internationally influential academic journal.
TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER
CRD42020189166.
Topics: Eye Injuries; Humans; Meta-Analysis as Topic; Prevalence; Research Design; Systematic Reviews as Topic
PubMed: 32871912
DOI: 10.1097/MD.0000000000021870 -
BMC Neurology Jun 2021The prevalence of Multiple Sclerosis (MS) has been increasing worldwide and the highest prevalence ratio among Asian countries was reported in Iran. This study aims to...
BACKGROUND
The prevalence of Multiple Sclerosis (MS) has been increasing worldwide and the highest prevalence ratio among Asian countries was reported in Iran. This study aims to estimate the increase in MS occurrence during more than three decades in Tehran and forecast the future condition of the disease using time series approaches for the next ten years.
METHODS
The cross-sectional study was conducted from 1999 to 2019 based on records of MS cases from Iranian MS Society (IMSS) registry system. The prevalence was estimated using population data presented by the Statistical Centre of Iran. Through Bayesian Structural Time Series (BSTS) model, we want to predict the prevalence of familial and sporadic MS in the next ten years. .
RESULTS
Among 22,421 cases with MS, 16,831 (75.1 %) were female and 5589 (24.9 %) were male. Female to male ratio was 3.0:1 and the number of familial MS cases were 2982 (13.3 %) of subjects. Female gender was less responsible for higher rate of MS in familial definition (beta = 0.020) in comparison to sporadic cases (beta = 0.034). Forecasting by BSTS revealed an increase in MS prevalence for the next ten years so that the prevalence rate for total, familial and sporadic MS respectively begins with 189.50 (183.94-195.14), 25.69 (24.97-26.45) and 163.74(159.06-168.57) in 2020 and ends with 220.84 (171.48-266.92), 30.79 (24.16-37.15), and 189.33(146.97-230.19) in 2029.
CONCLUSIONS
According to the findings, MS prevalence increased during three decades and it will increase over the next ten years. Tehran province is one of the regions with highest MS prevalence in Asia. The results of present study indicated that females are at higher risk for MS than males in both sporadic and familial MS.
Topics: Bayes Theorem; Cross-Sectional Studies; Female; Forecasting; Humans; Iran; Male; Multiple Sclerosis; Prevalence
PubMed: 34167483
DOI: 10.1186/s12883-021-02281-x -
Journal of Neurology Sep 2009Drooling (saliva loss) is a frequently reported symptom in patients with Parkinson's disease (PD), but an accurate estimate of the prevalence of drooling is lacking. The... (Review)
Review
Drooling (saliva loss) is a frequently reported symptom in patients with Parkinson's disease (PD), but an accurate estimate of the prevalence of drooling is lacking. The aim of this study was to systematically review the prevalence of drooling in published research papers. A systematic PubMed and CINAHL search was done, including studies published until January 2009. Eight studies were found, presenting prevalence rates of drooling based on responses of PD patients to questionnaires. The statistical heterogeneity was highly significant (P < 0.0001), with prevalence rates ranging from 32 to 74%. The pooled prevalence estimate with random effect analysis was of 56% (95% CI 44-67) for PD patients and 14% (95% CI 3-25) for healthy controls; the pooled relative risk (RR) with random effect analysis was 5.5 (95% CI 2.1-14.4). All studies reported data of community dwelling idiopathic PD patients, with a mean age around 65 years and mild PD in 50-60% of the cases. Heterogeneity was mainly caused by differences in definition or frequency of drooling. The highest prevalence rates included nocturnal drooling where others noted only diurnal drooling. Analysis of the data of two studies showed that drooling is reported frequently by 22-26% of the patients. Prevalence rates were lower in milder PD patients. The summarized findings demonstrate that drooling can be present in half of all PD patients. In about a quarter of PD patients, drooling appears to be a frequently occurring problem. We recommend to report drooling in future studies with more detailed consideration of severity, frequency and nocturnal versus diurnal complaints.
Topics: Humans; Parkinson Disease; Prevalence; Sialorrhea
PubMed: 19288042
DOI: 10.1007/s00415-009-5098-2 -
Nutrients Mar 2023Wheat allergy is a primary disease of food allergy, and its global prevalence is unclear. This study aimed to characterize the latest worldwide prevalence of wheat... (Meta-Analysis)
Meta-Analysis
Wheat allergy is a primary disease of food allergy, and its global prevalence is unclear. This study aimed to characterize the latest worldwide prevalence of wheat allergy based on five different diagnostic methods. Study searches were conducted in Web of Science, PubMed, Ovid LWW, and Cochrane database, with a time limit of 1 January 2007 to 1 September 2022. The review and screening of the articles was undertaken by two independent reviewers. The statistical analysis was conducted by R. A total of 56 articles were finally included. The prevalence of wheat allergy was 0.63% (95% CI: 0.43-0.87%) for self-reported, 0.70% (95% CI: 0.18-1.22%) for self-reported physician-diagnosed, 0.22% (95%CI: 0.07-0.65%) for skin prick test positive, 0.97% (95% CI: 0.43-2.20%) for specific immunoglobulin E positive, and 0.04% (95% CI: 0-0.16%) for food challenge. However, food challenge can be largely subjective, and the results were only based two countries, so the prevalence of wheat allergy confirmed by food challenge may be not entirely trustworthy. In conclusion, investigating the prevalence of wheat allergy in the real world as accurately as possible will contribute to the prevention, management, and risk assessment of wheat allergy.
Topics: Humans; Wheat Hypersensitivity; Prevalence; Food Hypersensitivity; Skin Tests; Food; Allergens
PubMed: 37049405
DOI: 10.3390/nu15071564 -
Rheumatology International Jan 2016The aim was to systematically review the literature describing the prevalence, impact and current management of musculoskeletal pain in older people living in care... (Review)
Review
The aim was to systematically review the literature describing the prevalence, impact and current management of musculoskeletal pain in older people living in care homes. Published literature (AMED, CINAHL, EMBASE, psycINFO, MEDLINE, Cochrane Library) and unpublished literature (OpenGrey, the WHO International Clinical Trials Registry Platform, Current Controlled Trials, UK National Research Register Archive) were searched on 1 March 2015. All studies assessing the prevalence, impact and management of musculoskeletal disorders in older people living in care homes were included. Literature was appraised using the CASP cohort and qualitative critical appraisal tools. Data were analysed using descriptive statistical approaches, meta-analysis and meta-ethnography techniques. Twenty-four papers reporting the results of 263,775 care home residents in 12 countries were identified. The evidence base was moderate in quality. Prevalence of musculoskeletal pain for people in care homes was 30.2 % (95 % confidence intervals 29.9-30.5 %; n = 105,463). Care home residents reported that musculoskeletal pain had a significant impact on their perceived independence and overall ability to participate in everyday activities of daily living. Three papers which presented data on interventions demonstrated that whilst multi-component assessment and management packages did not significantly change clinical outcomes, these empowered care home staff to feel more confident in managing these patients. Musculoskeletal pain is a common problem in care homes worldwide, and residents report significant impact on their lives. However, there is uncertainty regarding how to assess and manage such pain. PROSPERO Registration Number: CRD42014009824.
Topics: Activities of Daily Living; Aged; Cost of Illness; Disease Management; Homes for the Aged; Humans; Musculoskeletal Diseases; Nursing Homes; Prevalence
PubMed: 26245357
DOI: 10.1007/s00296-015-3322-1