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International Journal of Radiation... Oct 2020
Topics: COVID-19; Coronavirus Infections; Epidemics; HIV Infections; Humans; Intersectoral Collaboration; Pandemics; Pneumonia, Viral
PubMed: 32890507
DOI: 10.1016/j.ijrobp.2020.06.003 -
Mathematical Biosciences and... Jul 2022Among many epidemic prevention measures, isolation is an important method to control the spread of infectious disease. Scholars rarely study the impact of isolation on...
Among many epidemic prevention measures, isolation is an important method to control the spread of infectious disease. Scholars rarely study the impact of isolation on disease dissemination from a quantitative perspective. In this paper, we introduce an isolation ratio and establish the corresponding model. The basic reproductive number and its biological explanation are given. The stability conditions of the disease-free and endemic equilibria are obtained by analyzing its distribution of characteristic values. It is shown that the isolation ratio has an important influence on the basic reproductive number and the stability conditions. Taking the COVID-19 in Wuhan as an example, isolating more than 68% of the population can control the spread of the epidemic. This method can provide precise epidemic prevention strategies for government departments. Numerical simulations verify the effectiveness of the results.
Topics: Basic Reproduction Number; COVID-19; Communicable Diseases; Epidemics; Humans
PubMed: 36124572
DOI: 10.3934/mbe.2022507 -
Bosnian Journal of Basic Medical... Aug 2019Measles is a highly contagious and communicable viral disease which may be prevented by a sustained vaccination program. Due to missed vaccination, two major epidemics...
Measles is a highly contagious and communicable viral disease which may be prevented by a sustained vaccination program. Due to missed vaccination, two major epidemics of measles (1997-1999 and 2014-2015) have been recorded after the war in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BH) with over 10,000 patients registered. According to the World Health Organization, BH is categorized as a country with endemic transmission of measles. The last measles epidemic was between 2014 and 2015, with 5,083 documented patients in the Federation of BH. In the first four months of 2019, more than 700 measles cases were registered in the same region. Significant transmission rate has been observed in Sarajevo Canton (SC) with 570 documented measles cases. Out of 570 measles cases in SC, 92.5% were unvaccinated. The most affected were children up to 6 years of age (62.8%), with one documented case of death (7-month old infant). In addition to this report, we discussed key stakeholders and possible circumstances responsible for the epidemic. The measles epidemic is still ongoing.
Topics: Adolescent; Bosnia and Herzegovina; Child; Child, Preschool; Epidemics; Humans; Immunization Programs; Infant; Mass Vaccination; Measles
PubMed: 31064166
DOI: 10.17305/bjbms.2019.4266 -
Risk Analysis : An Official Publication... Jan 2022Since December 2019, the COVID-19 epidemic has been spreading continuously in China and many countries in the world, causing widespread concern among the whole society.... (Review)
Review
Since December 2019, the COVID-19 epidemic has been spreading continuously in China and many countries in the world, causing widespread concern among the whole society. To cope with the epidemic disaster, most provinces and cities in China have adopted prevention and control measures such as home isolation, blocking transportation, and extending the Spring Festival holiday, which has caused a serious impact on China's output of various sectors, international trade, and labor employment, ultimately generating great losses to the Chinese economic system in 2020. But how big is the loss? How can we assess this for a country? At present, there are few analyses based on quantitative models to answer these important questions. In the following, we describe a quantitative-based approach of assessing the potential impact of the COVID-19 epidemic on the economic system and the sectors taking China as the base case. The proposed approach can provide timely data and quantitative tools to support the complex decision-making process that government agencies (and the private sector) need to manage to respond to this tragic epidemic and maintain stable economic development. Based on the available data, this article proposes a hypothetical scenario and then adopts the Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model to calculate the comprehensive economic losses of the epidemic from the aspects of the direct shock on the output of seriously affected sectors, international trade, and labor force. The empirical results show that assuming a GDP growth rate of 4-8% in the absence of COVID-19, GDP growth in 2020 would be -8.77 to -12.77% after the COVID-19. Companies and activities associated with transportation and service sectors are among the most impacted, and companies and supply chains related to the manufacturing subsector lead the economic losses. Finally, according to the calculation results, the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are put forward: disaster recovery for key sectors such as the labor force, transportation sector, and service sectors should be enhanced; disaster emergency rescue work in highly sensitive sectors should be carried out; in the long run, precise measures to strengthen the refined management of disaster risk with big data resources and means should be taken.
Topics: COVID-19; China; Cities; Economic Development; Epidemics; Humans; Industry
PubMed: 34448216
DOI: 10.1111/risa.13805 -
BMC Medicine Dec 2016Emerging and epidemic infectious disease outbreaks are a significant public health problem and global health security threat. As an outbreak begins, epidemiological...
BACKGROUND
Emerging and epidemic infectious disease outbreaks are a significant public health problem and global health security threat. As an outbreak begins, epidemiological investigations and traditional public health responses are generally mounted very quickly. However, patient-centred research is usually not prioritised when planning and enacting the response. Instead, the clinical research response occurs subsequent to and separate from the public health response, and is inadequate for evidence-based decision-making at the bedside or in the offices of public health policymakers.
DISCUSSION
The deficiencies of the clinical research response to severe acute respiratory syndrome, pandemic influenza, Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus and Ebola virus demonstrate that current research models do not adequately inform and improve the quality of clinical care or public health response. Three suggestions for improvements are made. First, integrate the data and sample collection needs for clinical and public health decision-making within a unified framework, combined with a risk-based, rather than a discipline-based, approach to ethical review and consent. Second, develop clinical study methods and tools that are specifically designed to meet the epidemiological and contextual challenges of emerging and epidemic infectious diseases. Third, invest in investigator-led clinical research networks that are primed and incentivised to respond to outbreak infections, and which can call on the support and resources of a central centre of excellence.
CONCLUSIONS
It is crucial that the field of epidemic science matures to place patients at the heart of the response. This can only be achieved when patient-centred research is integrated in the outbreak response from day one and practical steps are taken to reduce the barriers to the generation of reliable and useful evidence.
Topics: Communicable Diseases; Disease Outbreaks; Epidemics; Epidemiologic Methods; Humans; Pandemics; Public Health
PubMed: 27989237
DOI: 10.1186/s12916-016-0760-x -
African Health Sciences Sep 2013
Topics: Africa; Chronic Disease; Developing Countries; Epidemics; Humans
PubMed: 24250333
DOI: 10.4314/ahs.v13i3.94044 -
Journal of Korean Medical Science Jan 2024
Topics: Humans; Influenza, Human; Disease Outbreaks; Epidemics; Seasons
PubMed: 38288544
DOI: 10.3346/jkms.2024.39.e58 -
Frontiers in Public Health 2022The Shanghai COVID-19 epidemic is an important example of a local outbreak and of the implementation of normalized prevention and disease control strategies. The precise...
BACKGROUND
The Shanghai COVID-19 epidemic is an important example of a local outbreak and of the implementation of normalized prevention and disease control strategies. The precise impact of public health interventions on epidemic prevention and control is unknown.
METHODS
We collected information on COVID-19 patients reported in Shanghai, China, from January 30 to May 31, 2022. These newly added cases were classified as local confirmed cases, local asymptomatic infections, imported confirmed cases and imported asymptomatic infections. We used polynomial fitting correlation analysis and illustrated the time lag plot in the correlation analysis of local and imported cases. Analyzing the conversion of asymptomatic infections to confirmed cases, we proposed a new measure of the conversion rate ( ). In the evolution of epidemic transmission and the analysis of intervention effects, we calculated the effective reproduction number ( ). Additionally, we used simulated predictions of public health interventions in transmission, correlation, and conversion analyses.
RESULTS
(1) The overall level of in the first three stages was higher than the epidemic threshold. After the implementation of public health intervention measures in the third stage, decreased rapidly, and the overall level in the last three stages was lower than the epidemic threshold. The longer the public health interventions were delayed, the more cases that were expected and the later the epidemic was expected to end. (2) In the correlation analysis, the outbreak in Shanghai was characterized by double peaks. (3) In the conversion analysis, when the incubation period was short (3 or 7 days), the conversion rate fluctuated smoothly and did not reflect the effect of the intervention. When the incubation period was extended (10 and 14 days), the conversion rate fluctuated in each period, being higher in the first five stages and lower in the sixth stage.
CONCLUSION
Effective public health interventions helped slow the spread of COVID-19 in Shanghai, shorten the outbreak duration, and protect the healthcare system from stress. Our research can serve as a positive guideline for addressing infectious disease prevention and control in China and other countries and regions.
Topics: Humans; Asymptomatic Infections; China; COVID-19; Epidemics; Public Health Practice
PubMed: 36703835
DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2022.1076248 -
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal... Jul 2019Simulation studies are often used to predict the expected impact of control measures in infectious disease outbreaks. Typically, two independent sets of simulations are...
Simulation studies are often used to predict the expected impact of control measures in infectious disease outbreaks. Typically, two independent sets of simulations are conducted, one with the intervention, and one without, and epidemic sizes (or some related metric) are compared to estimate the effect of the intervention. Since it is possible that controlled epidemics are larger than uncontrolled ones if there is substantial stochastic variation between epidemics, uncertainty intervals from this approach can include a negative effect even for an effective intervention. To more precisely estimate the number of cases an intervention will prevent within a single epidemic, here we develop a 'single-world' approach to matching simulations of controlled epidemics to their exact uncontrolled counterfactual. Our method borrows concepts from percolation approaches, prunes out possible epidemic histories and creates potential epidemic graphs (i.e. a mathematical representation of all consistent epidemics) that can be 'realized' to create perfectly matched controlled and uncontrolled epidemics. We present an implementation of this method for a common class of compartmental models (e.g. SIR models), and its application in a simple SIR model. Results illustrate how, at the cost of some computation time, this method substantially narrows confidence intervals and avoids nonsensical inferences. This article is part of the theme issue 'Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: epidemic forecasting and control'. This theme issue is linked with the earlier issue 'Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: approaches and important themes'.
Topics: Animals; Computer Simulation; Epidemics; Humans; Models, Biological; Software
PubMed: 31104612
DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2018.0279 -
American Journal of Public Health Jan 2020
Topics: AIDS Vaccines; Diagnostic Techniques and Procedures; Epidemics; HIV Infections; Humans; Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis; United States
PubMed: 31800280
DOI: 10.2105/AJPH.2019.305462