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Lancet (London, England) Oct 2020Understanding potential patterns in future population levels is crucial for anticipating and planning for changing age structures, resource and health-care needs, and...
Fertility, mortality, migration, and population scenarios for 195 countries and territories from 2017 to 2100: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study.
BACKGROUND
Understanding potential patterns in future population levels is crucial for anticipating and planning for changing age structures, resource and health-care needs, and environmental and economic landscapes. Future fertility patterns are a key input to estimation of future population size, but they are surrounded by substantial uncertainty and diverging methodologies of estimation and forecasting, leading to important differences in global population projections. Changing population size and age structure might have profound economic, social, and geopolitical impacts in many countries. In this study, we developed novel methods for forecasting mortality, fertility, migration, and population. We also assessed potential economic and geopolitical effects of future demographic shifts.
METHODS
We modelled future population in reference and alternative scenarios as a function of fertility, migration, and mortality rates. We developed statistical models for completed cohort fertility at age 50 years (CCF50). Completed cohort fertility is much more stable over time than the period measure of the total fertility rate (TFR). We modelled CCF50 as a time-series random walk function of educational attainment and contraceptive met need. Age-specific fertility rates were modelled as a function of CCF50 and covariates. We modelled age-specific mortality to 2100 using underlying mortality, a risk factor scalar, and an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. Net migration was modelled as a function of the Socio-demographic Index, crude population growth rate, and deaths from war and natural disasters; and use of an ARIMA model. The model framework was used to develop a reference scenario and alternative scenarios based on the pace of change in educational attainment and contraceptive met need. We estimated the size of gross domestic product for each country and territory in the reference scenario. Forecast uncertainty intervals (UIs) incorporated uncertainty propagated from past data inputs, model estimation, and forecast data distributions.
FINDINGS
The global TFR in the reference scenario was forecasted to be 1·66 (95% UI 1·33-2·08) in 2100. In the reference scenario, the global population was projected to peak in 2064 at 9·73 billion (8·84-10·9) people and decline to 8·79 billion (6·83-11·8) in 2100. The reference projections for the five largest countries in 2100 were India (1·09 billion [0·72-1·71], Nigeria (791 million [594-1056]), China (732 million [456-1499]), the USA (336 million [248-456]), and Pakistan (248 million [151-427]). Findings also suggest a shifting age structure in many parts of the world, with 2·37 billion (1·91-2·87) individuals older than 65 years and 1·70 billion (1·11-2·81) individuals younger than 20 years, forecasted globally in 2100. By 2050, 151 countries were forecasted to have a TFR lower than the replacement level (TFR <2·1), and 183 were forecasted to have a TFR lower than replacement by 2100. 23 countries in the reference scenario, including Japan, Thailand, and Spain, were forecasted to have population declines greater than 50% from 2017 to 2100; China's population was forecasted to decline by 48·0% (-6·1 to 68·4). China was forecasted to become the largest economy by 2035 but in the reference scenario, the USA was forecasted to once again become the largest economy in 2098. Our alternative scenarios suggest that meeting the Sustainable Development Goals targets for education and contraceptive met need would result in a global population of 6·29 billion (4·82-8·73) in 2100 and a population of 6·88 billion (5·27-9·51) when assuming 99th percentile rates of change in these drivers.
INTERPRETATION
Our findings suggest that continued trends in female educational attainment and access to contraception will hasten declines in fertility and slow population growth. A sustained TFR lower than the replacement level in many countries, including China and India, would have economic, social, environmental, and geopolitical consequences. Policy options to adapt to continued low fertility, while sustaining and enhancing female reproductive health, will be crucial in the years to come.
FUNDING
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Topics: Birth Rate; Female; Forecasting; Global Burden of Disease; Human Migration; Humans; Male; Mortality; Population Growth
PubMed: 32679112
DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30677-2 -
Journal of Korean Medical Science Oct 2022In Korea, the birth rate is declining at an alarming pace. This study aimed to investigate the changes and trends in the population count, number of births, and birth...
BACKGROUND
In Korea, the birth rate is declining at an alarming pace. This study aimed to investigate the changes and trends in the population count, number of births, and birth rate in Korea, in the past and future.
METHODS
Data regarding the total number of births, crude birth rate, and total fertility rate were collected from the "Statistics Korea Census" of the national statistical portal, census report, and Statistics Korea's "2020 Population Trend Survey for 1981-2020, provisional results of birth and death statistics." We used the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development 2019 Family Database for the TFR. To develop a better understanding of the data in this study, we classified it according to the modern history of Korea.
RESULTS
The changes and trends in the number of births and fertility rate in Korea, after liberation, were due to the birth control policy that restricted births. In Korea's low fertility society, which began in the mid-2000s, the fertility rate dropped to below 0.84 in 2020, despite policies to improve the quality of the population. The death toll has reached 300,000, entering an era of population decline.
CONCLUSION
As we enter the era of population decline, we are in a direction that will cause various socioeconomic problems, from demographic problems to future population decline.
Topics: Animals; Humans; Birth Rate; Population Dynamics; Demography; Developing Countries; Public Policy; Asia, Eastern
PubMed: 36325608
DOI: 10.3346/jkms.2022.37.e304 -
Reproductive Health Dec 2022Hydrosalpinx has a negative effect on the pregnancy outcomes of in vitro fertilization and embryo transfer (IVF-ET), and the pretreatment for hydrosalpinx play an...
BACKGROUND
Hydrosalpinx has a negative effect on the pregnancy outcomes of in vitro fertilization and embryo transfer (IVF-ET), and the pretreatment for hydrosalpinx play an important role in improving the outcomes of IVF-ET. This study aimed to investigate the impacts of interventional embolization of hydrosalpinx on the live birth rate and neonatal outcome after in-vitro fertilization.
METHOD
In the present retrospective study, 3351 women receiving the first frozen embryo transfer (FET) after freeze-all policy were reviewed. Patients who received interventional embolization of hydrosalpinx (n = 1268) were included in the study group and those with hydrosalpinx-free bilateral fallopian tube obstruction (n = 2083) in the control group. The primary outcome was live birth (LB) rate; the secondary endpoints included rates of implantation, clinical pregnancy (CP), multiple pregnancy, and pregnancy loss.
RESULTS
The LB rate was similar between embolization group (39.91%) and control group (43.21%) (P > 0.05). The rate of implantation (35.81% vs. 32.24%), CP (50.84% vs. 47%) and multiple pregnancy rate (28.71% vs. 24.16%) in the control group were significantly higher than in the embolization group (P < 0.05). The miscarriage rate (39.91%, vs 43.21%, P > 0.05), ectopic gestation rate (2.35% vs 2.83%, P > 0.05), and ongoing pregnancy rate (41.56% vs 44.89%, P > 0.05) were comparable between two groups. After adjustment for confounding factors, interventional embolization of hydrosalpinx was found to have no influence on the LB rate. The thicker endometrium, more embryos transferred, and transfer of blastocyst stage embryos significantly increased the LB rate and CP rate.
CONCLUSION
The interventional embolization of hydrosalpinx can achieve the LB rate similar to that of hydrosalpinx-free obstruction patients with less risk, less pain and reduced medical cost. Thus, embolization of hydrosalpinx is one of the preferable clinical treatments for patients with hydrosalpinx.
Topics: Infant, Newborn; Pregnancy; Humans; Female; Birth Rate; Retrospective Studies; Pregnancy Rate; Embryo Transfer; Embryo Implantation; Abortion, Spontaneous
PubMed: 36457061
DOI: 10.1186/s12978-022-01522-7 -
The Medical Journal of Australia May 2021
Topics: Australia; Birth Rate; COVID-19; Humans; Infant, Newborn; National Health Programs; Pandemics; Population Growth; SARS-CoV-2
PubMed: 33860526
DOI: 10.5694/mja2.51010 -
NCHS Data Brief Sep 2021This report presents selected highlights from 2020 final birth data on key demographic, health care utilization, and infant health indicators. General fertility rates...
This report presents selected highlights from 2020 final birth data on key demographic, health care utilization, and infant health indicators. General fertility rates (births per 1,000 women aged 15-44), age-specific birth rates (births per 1,000 women in specified age group), low-risk (nulliparous, term, singleton, cephalic births) cesarean delivery, and preterm (less than 37 weeks of gestation) birth rates are presented. All indicators are compared between 2019 and 2020 and shown for all births. General fertility rates (GFRs), lowrisk cesarean and preterm birth rates are shown for the three largest race and Hispanic-origin groups: non-Hispanic white, non-Hispanic black, and Hispanic. Fertility rates are shown by age of mother.
Topics: Birth Rate; Cesarean Section; Female; Hispanic or Latino; Humans; Infant; Infant, Newborn; Parturition; Pregnancy; Premature Birth; United States
PubMed: 34582330
DOI: No ID Found -
Scientific Reports Oct 2022The continuing decline in the birth rate has led to a series of problems, such as the disproportion of population structure and severe aging population, which have...
The continuing decline in the birth rate has led to a series of problems, such as the disproportion of population structure and severe aging population, which have restricted the country's economic development. To have a deeper understanding of the geographical differences and influencing factors of the birth rate, this paper collects and organizes the birth population data of 31 provinces in mainland China from 2011 to 2019. The national region is divided into seven natural geographical regions to obtain the spatial hierarchy, and a hierarchical Bayesian Spatio-temporal model is established. The INLA algorithm estimates the model parameters. The results show significant spatial and temporal differences in birth rates in mainland China, which are reflected mainly in the combination of spatial, temporal, and Spatio-temporal interaction effects. In the spatial dimension, the northeast is low, the northwest and southwest are high, and the birth rate has an upward trend from east to west. These trends are caused by unbalanced economic development, different fertility attitudes and differences in fertility security, reflecting regional differences in spatial effects. From 2011 to 2019, China's birth rate showed an overall downward trend in the time dimension. However, all regions except the northeast saw a significant but temporary increase in birth rates in 2016 and 2017, reflecting the temporal effect difference in birth rates.
Topics: Bayes Theorem; Birth Rate; China; Fertility; Population Dynamics
PubMed: 36253411
DOI: 10.1038/s41598-022-22403-w -
Evolutionary Anthropology 2015Evolutionary anthropology provides a powerful theoretical framework for understanding how both current environments and legacies of past selection shape human behavioral... (Review)
Review
Evolutionary anthropology provides a powerful theoretical framework for understanding how both current environments and legacies of past selection shape human behavioral diversity. This integrative and pluralistic field, combining ethnographic, demographic, and sociological methods, has provided new insights into the ultimate forces and proximate pathways that guide human adaptation and variation. Here, we present the argument that evolutionary anthropological studies of human behavior also hold great, largely untapped, potential to guide the design, implementation, and evaluation of social and public health policy. Focusing on the key anthropological themes of reproduction, production, and distribution we highlight classic and recent research demonstrating the value of an evolutionary perspective to improving human well-being. The challenge now comes in transforming relevance into action and, for that, evolutionary behavioral anthropologists will need to forge deeper connections with other applied social scientists and policy-makers. We are hopeful that these developments are underway and that, with the current tide of enthusiasm for evidence-based approaches to policy, evolutionary anthropology is well positioned to make a strong contribution.
Topics: Anthropology, Physical; Behavior; Biological Evolution; Birth Rate; Female; Humans; Male
PubMed: 25684561
DOI: 10.1002/evan.21432 -
The Journal of Adolescent Health :... Sep 2020In the United States, black teens overall have higher pregnancy and birth rates than whites, and it is commonly believed that minority race and low income account for...
PURPOSE
In the United States, black teens overall have higher pregnancy and birth rates than whites, and it is commonly believed that minority race and low income account for this disparity. We examined racial differences in pregnancy and birth rates among teens from low-income households using Medicaid-enrollment as a proxy for low income.
METHODS
This was a retrospective study of Louisiana Medicaid claims data for female teens aged 15-17 years in 2014 (n = 66,069). Pregnancy and pregnancy outcome codes were identified (n = 2,276) and analyzed for differences by black and white race. We conducted validity analyses with different rate definitions and teens' claims status.
RESULTS
The cohort was 36% white and 54% black. More black teens than whites lacked any claims data (15.6% vs. 12.6%; p < .001). Rates calculated as events per 1,000 person-years of Medicaid coverage showed no difference in live birth rates between white and black teens (24.6 vs. 25.8; relative incidence ratio, 1.05; 95% confidence interval, .93-1.18; p = .43); however, pregnancy rates for whites were higher than those for blacks (42.7 vs. 36.1; relative incidence ratio, .85; 95% confidence interval, .77-.93; p < .001).
CONCLUSION
In contrast to national trends, which include teens from diverse racial and socioeconomic backgrounds, Louisiana Medicaid-enrolled teens aged 15-17 years had equal birth rates regardless of black or white race, and whites had higher pregnancy rates. Decreased racial disparities in pregnancy and birth rates among these adolescents highlights socioeconomic influences in sexual health behavior and a need to examine the interplay of risk factors contributing to racial disparities seen among adolescents nationally.
Topics: Adolescent; Birth Rate; Female; Humans; Medicaid; Pregnancy; Pregnancy Outcome; Pregnancy in Adolescence; Retrospective Studies; United States
PubMed: 32576486
DOI: 10.1016/j.jadohealth.2020.04.026 -
National Vital Statistics Reports :... Nov 2019Objectives-This report presents 2018 data on U.S. births according to a wide variety of characteristics. Trends in fertility patterns and maternal and infant...
Objectives-This report presents 2018 data on U.S. births according to a wide variety of characteristics. Trends in fertility patterns and maternal and infant characteristics are described and interpreted. Methods-Descriptive tabulations of data reported on the birth certificates of the 3.79 million births that occurred in 2018 are presented. Data are presented for maternal age, live-birth order, race and Hispanic origin, marital status, tobacco use, prenatal care, source of payment for the delivery, method of delivery, gestational age, birthweight, and plurality. Selected data by mother's state of residence and birth rates by age also are shown. Trend data for 2010 through 2018 are presented for selected items. Trend data by race and Hispanic origin are shown for 2016-2018. Results-3,791,712 births were registered in the United States in 2018, down 2% from 2017. Compared with rates in 2017, the general fertility rate declined to 59.1 births per 1,000 women aged 15-44. The birth rate for females aged 15-19 fell 7% in 2018. Birth rates declined for women aged 20-34 and increased for women aged 35-44. The total fertility rate declined to 1,729.5 births per 1,000 women in 2018. Birth rates for both married and unmarried women declined from 2017 to 2018. The percentage of women who began prenatal care in the first trimester of pregnancy rose to 77.5% in 2018; the percentage of all women who smoked during pregnancy declined to 6.5%. The cesarean delivery rate decreased to 31.9% in 2018 following an increase in 2017. Medicaid was the source of payment for 42.3% of all 2018 births, down 2% from 2017. The preterm birth rate rose for the fourth straight year to 10.02% in 2018; the rate of low birthweight was unchanged at 8.28%. Twin and triplet and higher-order multiple birth rates declined in 2018 (Figure 1).
Topics: Adolescent; Adult; Birth Certificates; Birth Order; Birth Rate; Birth Weight; Delivery, Obstetric; Female; Gestational Age; Hispanic or Latino; Humans; Infant, Newborn; Male; Marital Status; Maternal Age; Mothers; Multiple Birth Offspring; Pregnancy; Prenatal Care; Racial Groups; Tobacco Use; United States; Young Adult
PubMed: 32501202
DOI: No ID Found -
Fertility and Sterility Dec 2021
Topics: Birth Rate; Fathers; Fertility; Humans; Male; Sperm Count
PubMed: 34743913
DOI: 10.1016/j.fertnstert.2021.10.015