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The Lancet. Public Health Dec 2023Cancer has been the leading cause of death since 2010 in China, with increasing incidence, mortality, and burden. We aimed to assess national and subnational changes in...
BACKGROUND
Cancer has been the leading cause of death since 2010 in China, with increasing incidence, mortality, and burden. We aimed to assess national and subnational changes in the cancer burden from 2005 to 2020 in China using data from the National Mortality Surveillance System.
METHODS
We extracted data on cancer-related deaths from the National Mortality Surveillance System, which accounts for 24·3% of the country's population with national and provincial representativeness. Data for the surveillance population stratified by age and sex were extracted from the National Bureau of Statistics of China. We estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) for all cancers and for 23 cancer groups by age and sex, nationally, and for 31 provinces in China between 2005 and 2020. We calculated age-standardised mortality and YLL rates using the China 2020 census as the reference population. Average annual percent changes in age-standardised rates for mortality and YLLs were calculated to assess trends over the study period. Decomposition analysis was used to assess the drivers of changes in cancer-related death due to three explanatory components: population growth, population ageing, and age-specific mortality rates in China.
FINDINGS
The total number of cancer-related deaths increased by 21·6% to 2 397 772 and YLLs increased by 5·0% to 56 598 975 between 2005 and 2020. The three leading fatal cancer types remained stable for both sexes over the study period: tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer; liver cancer; and stomach cancer. The fourth and fifth leading cancers also remained stable among males (oesophageal, and colon and rectum), while colon and rectum cancer replaced oesophageal cancer as the fourth and breast cancer replaced colon and rectum cancer as the fifth leading cause of cancer-related death among females. Age-standardised mortality rates and age-standardised YLL rates for almost all cancer types (except for prostate for male and multiple myeloma for female) decreased significantly in both sexes in urban areas. Age-standardised YLL rates increased for about half of all cancers for both sexes in rural areas. Leading fatal types were leukaemia and brain and nervous system cancer in younger groups (aged 0-19 years); liver, tracheal, bronchus, and lung, or breast cancers in middle-aged groups (aged 40-59 years); and tracheal, bronchus, and lung, liver, or stomach cancers in older adults (aged ≥60 years) in 2020. The leading causes of cancer-related mortality varied for each province, with tracheal, bronchus, and lung or liver cancer at the top in 30 provinces.
INTERPRETATION
The cancer burden in China appeared to be shifting towards that in high-income countries from 2005 to 2020. Adjustments to existing health plans and actions are needed to reduce the burdens of tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer or other leading and emerging cancers.
FUNDING
National Key Research and Development Program of China.
Topics: Middle Aged; Humans; Male; Female; Aged; Cause of Death; Breast Neoplasms; Lung Neoplasms; Liver Neoplasms; Rectal Neoplasms; Stomach Neoplasms
PubMed: 38000889
DOI: 10.1016/S2468-2667(23)00211-6 -
JAMA Oncology Apr 2023Cancers are a leading cause of mortality, accounting for nearly 10 million annual deaths worldwide, or 1 in 6 deaths. Cancers also negatively affect countries' economic...
IMPORTANCE
Cancers are a leading cause of mortality, accounting for nearly 10 million annual deaths worldwide, or 1 in 6 deaths. Cancers also negatively affect countries' economic growth. However, the global economic cost of cancers and its worldwide distribution have yet to be studied.
OBJECTIVE
To estimate and project the economic cost of 29 cancers in 204 countries and territories.
DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS
A decision analytical model that incorporates economic feedback in assessing health outcomes associated with the labor force and investment. A macroeconomic model was used to account for (1) the association of cancer-related mortality and morbidity with labor supply; (2) age-sex-specific differences in education, experience, and labor market participation of those who are affected by cancers; and (3) the diversion of cancer treatment expenses from savings and investments. Data were collected on April 25, 2022.
MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES
Economic cost of 29 cancers across countries and territories. Costs are presented in international dollars at constant 2017 prices.
RESULTS
The estimated global economic cost of cancers from 2020 to 2050 is $25.2 trillion in international dollars (at constant 2017 prices), equivalent to an annual tax of 0.55% on global gross domestic product. The 5 cancers with the highest economic costs are tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer (15.4%); colon and rectum cancer (10.9%); breast cancer (7.7%); liver cancer (6.5%); and leukemia (6.3%). China and the US face the largest economic costs of cancers in absolute terms, accounting for 24.1% and 20.8% of the total global burden, respectively. Although 75.1% of cancer deaths occur in low- and middle-income countries, their share of the economic cost of cancers is lower at 49.5%. The relative contribution of treatment costs to the total economic cost of cancers is greater in high-income countries than in low-income countries.
CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE
In this decision analytical modeling study, the macroeconomic cost of cancers was found to be substantial and distributed heterogeneously across cancer types, countries, and world regions. The findings suggest that global efforts to curb the ongoing burden of cancers are warranted.
Topics: Male; Female; Humans; Morbidity; Neoplasms; Educational Status; China
PubMed: 36821107
DOI: 10.1001/jamaoncol.2022.7826 -
JAMA Oncology Dec 2019Cancer and other noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) are now widely recognized as a threat to global development. The latest United Nations high-level meeting on NCDs...
Global, Regional, and National Cancer Incidence, Mortality, Years of Life Lost, Years Lived With Disability, and Disability-Adjusted Life-Years for 29 Cancer Groups, 1990 to 2017: A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study.
IMPORTANCE
Cancer and other noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) are now widely recognized as a threat to global development. The latest United Nations high-level meeting on NCDs reaffirmed this observation and also highlighted the slow progress in meeting the 2011 Political Declaration on the Prevention and Control of Noncommunicable Diseases and the third Sustainable Development Goal. Lack of situational analyses, priority setting, and budgeting have been identified as major obstacles in achieving these goals. All of these have in common that they require information on the local cancer epidemiology. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study is uniquely poised to provide these crucial data.
OBJECTIVE
To describe cancer burden for 29 cancer groups in 195 countries from 1990 through 2017 to provide data needed for cancer control planning.
EVIDENCE REVIEW
We used the GBD study estimation methods to describe cancer incidence, mortality, years lived with disability, years of life lost, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). Results are presented at the national level as well as by Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income, educational attainment, and total fertility rate. We also analyzed the influence of the epidemiological vs the demographic transition on cancer incidence.
FINDINGS
In 2017, there were 24.5 million incident cancer cases worldwide (16.8 million without nonmelanoma skin cancer [NMSC]) and 9.6 million cancer deaths. The majority of cancer DALYs came from years of life lost (97%), and only 3% came from years lived with disability. The odds of developing cancer were the lowest in the low SDI quintile (1 in 7) and the highest in the high SDI quintile (1 in 2) for both sexes. In 2017, the most common incident cancers in men were NMSC (4.3 million incident cases); tracheal, bronchus, and lung (TBL) cancer (1.5 million incident cases); and prostate cancer (1.3 million incident cases). The most common causes of cancer deaths and DALYs for men were TBL cancer (1.3 million deaths and 28.4 million DALYs), liver cancer (572 000 deaths and 15.2 million DALYs), and stomach cancer (542 000 deaths and 12.2 million DALYs). For women in 2017, the most common incident cancers were NMSC (3.3 million incident cases), breast cancer (1.9 million incident cases), and colorectal cancer (819 000 incident cases). The leading causes of cancer deaths and DALYs for women were breast cancer (601 000 deaths and 17.4 million DALYs), TBL cancer (596 000 deaths and 12.6 million DALYs), and colorectal cancer (414 000 deaths and 8.3 million DALYs).
CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE
The national epidemiological profiles of cancer burden in the GBD study show large heterogeneities, which are a reflection of different exposures to risk factors, economic settings, lifestyles, and access to care and screening. The GBD study can be used by policy makers and other stakeholders to develop and improve national and local cancer control in order to achieve the global targets and improve equity in cancer care.
Topics: Disabled Persons; Global Burden of Disease; Global Health; Humans; Incidence; Neoplasms; Quality-Adjusted Life Years
PubMed: 31560378
DOI: 10.1001/jamaoncol.2019.2996 -
Journal of Hematology & Oncology Nov 2021Cancer will soon become the leading cause of death in every country in the twenty-first century. This study aimed to analyze the mortality and morbidity of 29 types of...
BACKGROUND AND AIMS
Cancer will soon become the leading cause of death in every country in the twenty-first century. This study aimed to analyze the mortality and morbidity of 29 types of cancer in 204 countries or regions from 1990 to 2019 to guide global cancer prevention and control.
METHODS
Detailed information for 29 cancer groups was collected from the Global Burden of Disease Study in 2019. The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and age-standardized death rate (ASDR) of the 29 cancer groups were calculated based on sex, age, region, and country. In addition, separate analyses were performed for major cancer types.
RESULTS
In 2019, more than 10 million people died from cancer, which was approximately twice the number in 1990. Tracheal, bronchus, and lung (TBL) cancers collectively showed the highest death rate, and the ASDR of pancreatic cancer increased by 24%, which was cancer with the highest case fatality rate (CFR). The global cancer ASIR showed an increasing trend, with testicular cancer, thyroid cancer, and malignant skin melanoma showing a significant increase. The ASDR and ASIR of cancer in males were about 1.5 times higher than that in females. Individuals over 50 years had the highest risk of developing cancer, with incidences and deaths in this age group accounting for more than 85% of cancers in all age groups. Asia has the heaviest cancer burden due to its high population density, with esophageal cancer in this region accounting for 53% of the total fatalities related to this type of cancer in the world. In addition, the mortality and morbidity of most cancers increased with the increase in the development or socio-demographic index (SDI) in the SDI regions based on the World Bank's Human Development Index (HDI), with cancer characteristics varying in the different countries globally.
CONCLUSIONS
The global cancer burden continues to increase, with substantial mortality and morbidity differences among the different regions, ages, countries, gender, and cancer types. Effective and locally tailored cancer prevention and control measures are essential in reducing the global cancer burden in the future.
Topics: Age Factors; Female; Global Health; Humans; Incidence; Male; Neoplasms; Sex Factors
PubMed: 34809683
DOI: 10.1186/s13045-021-01213-z -
The Lancet. Respiratory Medicine Sep 2021Prevention, control, and treatment of respiratory tract cancers are important steps towards achieving target 3.4 of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)-a...
Global, regional, and national burden of respiratory tract cancers and associated risk factors from 1990 to 2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.
BACKGROUND
Prevention, control, and treatment of respiratory tract cancers are important steps towards achieving target 3.4 of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)-a one-third reduction in premature mortality due to non-communicable diseases by 2030. We aimed to provide global, regional, and national estimates of the burden of tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer and larynx cancer and their attributable risks from 1990 to 2019.
METHODS
Based on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 methodology, we evaluated the incidence, mortality, years lived with disability, years of life lost, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) of respiratory tract cancers (ie, tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer and larynx cancer). Deaths from tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer and larynx cancer attributable to each risk factor were estimated on the basis of risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level input from 204 countries and territories, stratified by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Trends were estimated from 1990 to 2019, with an emphasis on the 2010-19 period.
FINDINGS
Globally, there were 2·26 million (95% uncertainty interval 2·07 to 2·45) new cases of tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer, and 2·04 million (1·88 to 2·19) deaths and 45·9 million (42·3 to 49·3) DALYs due to tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer in 2019. There were 209 000 (194 000 to 225 000) new cases of larynx cancer, and 123 000 (115 000 to 133 000) deaths and 3·26 million (3·03 to 3·51) DALYs due to larynx cancer globally in 2019. From 2010 to 2019, the number of new tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer cases increased by 23·3% (12·9 to 33·6) globally and the number of larynx cancer cases increased by 24·7% (16·0 to 34·1) globally. Global age-standardised incidence rates of tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer decreased by 7·4% (-16·8 to 1·6) and age-standardised incidence rates of larynx cancer decreased by 3·0% (-10·5 to 5·0) in males over the past decade; however, during the same period, age-standardised incidence rates in females increased by 0·9% (-8·2 to 10·2) for tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer and decreased by 0·5% (-8·4 to 8·1) for larynx cancer. Furthermore, although age-standardised incidence and death rates declined in both sexes combined from 2010 to 2019 at the global level for tracheal, bronchus, lung and larynx cancers, some locations had rising rates, particularly those on the lower end of the SDI range. Smoking contributed to an estimated 64·2% (61·9-66·4) of all deaths from tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer and 63·4% (56·3-69·3) of all deaths from larynx cancer in 2019. For males and for both sexes combined, smoking was the leading specific risk factor for age-standardised deaths from tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer per 100 000 in all SDI quintiles and GBD regions in 2019. However, among females, household air pollution from solid fuels was the leading specific risk factor in the low SDI quintile and in three GBD regions (central, eastern, and western sub-Saharan Africa) in 2019.
INTERPRETATION
The numbers of incident cases and deaths from tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer and larynx cancer increased globally during the past decade. Even more concerning, age-standardised incidence and death rates due to tracheal, bronchus, lung cancer and larynx cancer increased in some populations-namely, in the lower SDI quintiles and among females. Preventive measures such as smoking control interventions, air quality management programmes focused on major air pollution sources, and widespread access to clean energy should be prioritised in these settings.
FUNDING
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Topics: Global Burden of Disease; Humans; Incidence; Respiratory Tract Neoplasms; Risk Factors; Socioeconomic Factors
PubMed: 34411511
DOI: 10.1016/S2213-2600(21)00164-8 -
Thyroid : Official Journal of the... Feb 2021The question of how to manage patients with low-risk papillary thyroid microcarcinoma (PTMC; T1aN0M0) has recently become an important clinical issue. Two Japanese... (Review)
Review
Indications and Strategy for Active Surveillance of Adult Low-Risk Papillary Thyroid Microcarcinoma: Consensus Statements from the Japan Association of Endocrine Surgery Task Force on Management for Papillary Thyroid Microcarcinoma.
The question of how to manage patients with low-risk papillary thyroid microcarcinoma (PTMC; T1aN0M0) has recently become an important clinical issue. Two Japanese centers have conducted prospective clinical trials of active surveillance (AS) for low-risk PTMC since the 1990s, reporting favorable outcomes. This policy has thus seen gradual adoption worldwide to avoid overtreatment. Not all PTMCs are suitable for AS, however, and many physicians still hesitate to apply the management policy in daily clinical practice. A task force on management for PTMC created by the Japan Association of Endocrine Surgery collected and analyzed bibliographic evidence and has produced the present consensus statements regarding indications and concrete strategies for AS to facilitate the management of adult patients diagnosed with low-risk PTMC. These statements provide indications for AS in adult patients with T1aN0M0 low-risk PTMC. PTMCs with clinical lymph node metastasis, distant metastasis, recurrent laryngeal nerve (RLN) paralysis due to carcinoma invasion, or protrusion into the tracheal lumen warrant immediate surgery. Tumors suspected of aggressive subtypes on cytology are recommended for immediate surgery. Immediate surgery is also recommended for tumors adherent to the trachea or located along the course of the RLN. Practical strategies include diagnosis, decision-making, follow-up, and monitoring related to the implementation of AS. The rate of low-risk PTMC progression is lower in older patients. However, we recommend continuing AS as long as circumstances permit. Future tasks in optimizing management for low-risk PTMC are also described, including molecular markers and patient-reported outcomes. An appropriate multidisciplinary team is necessary to accurately evaluate primary tumors and lymph nodes at the beginning of and during AS, and to adequately reach a shared-decision with individual patients. If appropriately applied, AS of low-risk PTMC is a safe management strategy offering favorable outcomes and preserves quality of life at low cost.
Topics: Carcinoma, Papillary; Clinical Decision-Making; Consensus; Humans; Japan; Neoplasm Staging; Risk Assessment; Risk Factors; Thyroid Neoplasms; Time Factors; Treatment Outcome; Watchful Waiting
PubMed: 33023426
DOI: 10.1089/thy.2020.0330